PA-Sen: FiveThirtyEight Gives McGinty 59% Chance to Win

katie_mcgintyKatie McGinty holds the advantage.

That’s the conclusion of FiveThirtyEight’s new Senate forecast.

Much like their presidential forecast, FiveThirtyEight measures the chances of each Senate candidate under a polls-only model, a polls-plus model and their “now-cast”. The first concerns only polls, the second considers other outside factors and the third is what would happen if the election was today.

The polls-plus model gives McGinty a 56% chance of victory and projects the vote share to be 48.8% to 48.0%.

The polls-only model gives McGinty a 59.3% chance of victory and projects the vote share to be 49.1% to 47.6%.

The now-cast gives McGinty a 56.7% chance of victory and projects the vote share to be 48.8% to 47.9%.

Overall, polls-plus and now-cast show Dems picking up six Senate seats while polls-only shows them taking four. The Democrats will need four pick-ups to retake the majority if they win the presidency (the Vice President breaks a tie) and five if they don’t.

9 Responses

  1. Wrong again – the 5 percent comment wasn’t based on modeling, it was based on his gut, just like most presidential coverage. He admitted his failure there and 538’s actual modeling has still demonstrated a high degree of accuracy. Ignore him at your own peril.

  2. Nate Silver is known for weighting his predictions in favor of Democratic candidates. For an idea of how accurate he can be: Silver said Trump had a 5 percent chance of being the GOP candidate for President, and then when Silver’s gross inaccuracy was pointed out to him, he basically blamed it on the media giving Trump tons of free publicity and not “holding him accountable,” aka not being biased enough against him.

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