PA-Sen: F&M Poll: Sestak 31% McGinty 14% Fetterman 7%

Joe-Sestak-headshotFormer Congressman Joe Sestak looks to be closing in on a rematch with Senator Pat Toomey.

In the new Franklin & Marshall Poll released today, Sestak has a 31%-14% lead over Gov. Wolf’s former Chief of Staff Katie McGinty. Braddock Mayor John Fetterman registered 7%. Small business owner Joseph Vodvarka was included in the poll but did not receive any support.

This is a 10% boost in support for Sestak, who was polling at 21% last month. Katie McGinty only went up 2% and John Fetterman actually went down by 1%.

The number of undecideds in this race has also gone down, from 56% to 46%. This makes sense, seeing as we are only a month away from the April 26th contest. Yet only about 58% of the people who chose a candidate were absolutely certain that was the candidate they would ultimately support. 42% said they were still making up their minds.

McGinty can take solace in the fact that she has a slight lead in the preference of the undecideds, 10% to 9% over Sestak.

With a month remaining until the election, there is plenty of time and a lot of money left to be spent on this race.

This poll was conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. They surveyed 408 registered Pennsylvania Democratic voters from March 14th to March 20th. The margin of error is +/- 4.7%.

22 Responses

  1. The high level of undecideds this close to the primary says volumes about the quality (lack thereof) of the candidates.
    Their only chance is a Trump candidacy in November.

  2. I love the idea Delco Blues. I would pay anything to see a Diano-Sestak fight to the death. Sestak has the military training edge, so we should probably give David a knife to level the playing field. How big of a knife do you think? Who do I need to work with to make this happen?

  3. Rumor has it Philadelphia sandbagged Sestak because he wouldn’t pay walking around money. If that doesn’t change, his results in Philadelphia are unlikely to change, as much as I admire the principle. I doubt McGinty will take the same tack. She has got Rendell and Brady behind her. But nothing is certain in a Presidential year.

  4. David I wish you would stop beating down Joe. When Joe ran for congress you were a huge fan and one of his biggest supporters. You now have bad feelings over something and slam him every chance you get.
    GROW UP!!!
    Quite honestly how Joe doesn’t punch you in the mouth is beyond me.
    Probably because he’s a better man than me.

  5. David and I disagree about this. He beat Specter because Specter was a 30-year Republican and Democrats have this thing about not voting for Republicans. However, he lost against Toomey because he ran a horrible campaign and couldn’t connect with voters.

  6. tommyd

    He beat Specter because Specter ran a shitty campaign, and some people were still pissed off about Anita Hill.

  7. I know actual grass roots Democrats and I know what they are upset about: Harry Reid and DWS trying to run Pennsylvania. And if Joe can’t connect, how is it he beat Specter like a drum, and would have beat Toomey if he hadn’t been sandbagged by the Philadelphia machine? And this Clintonesque arrogance about who’s going to win and who’s not is neither attractive nor persuasive.

  8. You must be new here, tommyd. The only reason the party jumped in was that rank and file Democrats across the state were upset that we didn’t have a decent candidate to run against Toomey — only Sestak, who is a whiny, unfocused, boring speaker who can’t connect with voters and who couldn’t attract any momentum after six years of constant campaigning. The party recruited McGinty because Toomey is beatable and Sestak can’t do it. I’m thankful that they found a great candidate like McGinty. Katie beats Sestak next month and Toomey in November, esepcially on a ticket headed by Hillary Clinton.

  9. Engaged Democrats are not impressed by heavy-handed DSCC and DNC tactics. They remember the Specter fiasco six years ago and see it all happening again. I’ve met McGinty and kind of like her, but I’m disappointed she’s bought into this old-school machine politics.

  10. Jerry Policoff-

    I haven’t said one untrue thing about Sestak. Someday, you may see the real Sestak and realize the truth.

  11. McGinty has been, is and will continue to be a loser. She represents the worst in American politics- like other political thugs like Rendell Brady Gore Emily’s list and John Edwards do we really need her kind of politico. It’s not her gender- it’s her ethical challenges and total lack of qualification that makes Sestak a much better candidate- sestak is no mr. Congeniality but Katie the hack is no mother Teresa!

  12. Somehow the words “incredible bullshit” coming from David Diano just makes me erupt in laughter. Has he ever posted anything that was anything but incredible bullshit?
    And I remind all of you, even though most of you already know that F&M polls are best used as toilet paper, that these polls are meaningless because Terry Madonna still wants to pretend that measuring cell phone samples is not important. David Diano used to accuse me of challenging these polls because they made McGinty look competitive. I still challenge these polls even though I hope they are right. F&M polls are worthless even when I like what they say. Two people have told me recently that Terry Madonna told them that he does include cell phone users in his sample, but if this were true he would say so in his methodology description. I don’t doubt that he manages to capture some cell phone users in his sample, but that is not the same as measuring cell phone users. I suspect he just stretches the truth because he knows people are getting wise to the fact that land line only polls are worthless.
    I am sure some of his friends and associates read PoliticsPa. How about defending your methodology, Terry?

  13. F&M poll, roughly the same time in 2010:

    “Arlen Specter is favored (33%) over Joe Sestak (16%).”

    Terry Madonna is a legend in his own mind and his F&M poll is less reliable than a coin flip. Why the media still pays attention is beyond me.

  14. Maybe the rest of us know that Joe is a decent candidate who is the most likely to remove the disgusting Toomey, David.
    Your whining is becoming pathetic

  15. With little over a month left til the primary, I can’t believe how little advertising I’ve seen (and how ineffective the ads I’ve seen have been), especially in the wake of the success of Wolf’s textbook early and often air campaign for governor. Guess there just aren’t enough rich people or groups with a stake in this race.

    I also keep waiting in vain for the barrage of ads slamming Toomey for being such a jerk.

  16. Sestak already sent out a fundraising letter this morning touting the poll, and whining about SEIU running ads for McGinty. Boo. Hoo.

    Given the soft support for the candidates, a good ad campaign can still make a difference.

    I’m still waiting for McGinty to take off the gloves and go after Sestak for his pro-war voting record, lack of residency, AWOL during second term in congress, and all his other incredible bullshit.

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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