According to the data firm Target Smart, this year’s general election may truly be the Year of the Woman in the Commonwealth.
Pennsylvania has seen women register to vote in droves since the June 24 Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and the federal right to an abortion in the United States.
The Keystone State has seen nearly 25,000 new registrants since June 21 with approximately 13,500 or 56 percent of those belonging to women, according to firm CEO Tom Bonier. That works out to a 12-percentage-point difference between women and men.
Of those new female registrants, 62 percent are registering as Democrat compared to just 15 percent Republican. It is also notable that over half (54%) of the new voters are under the age 0f 25.
On the men’s side, 43 percent of the approximately 11,500 new voters registered as Democrats to just 28 percent as members of the GOP, while 2 in 5 (41%) were under the age of 25.
It should be noted that gender is an optional field when registering to vote in the Commonwealth, so data provided by the Department of State does not provide a complete picture of the breakdown.
Target Smart also pointed out that prior to the Dobbs decision, Democrats held a four percentage-point advantage in new registrants in the state. After the decision, that number has jumped to 30 percent.
It is clear that reproductive rights will be on the ballot in Pennsylvania this fall.
A recent NBC News poll indicated that 58 percent of the 1,000 registered voters disapprove of Dobbs, compared with 38% who approve.
“The Supreme Court ruling has shaken up the electorate,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
The same poll also showed that the so-called “enthusiasm gap” between GOP and Democratic voters has also disappeared. In March, 67 percent of Republicans said they had a “high interest” in voting in the midterms to just half of Democrats. In five months, the Democrats had closed with two percentage points at 68-66%.
“A lot of people, they heard abortion was punted to the state and then people run and go look at their state and they’re like ‘Oh … I’m in one of the bad ones,’” Jamie Perrapato, executive director of the Democratic group Turn PA Blue, said in a tweet.
The Department of State reports that as of Monday, there are 3,999,899 registered Democrats and 3,460,160 registered Republicans in the Commonwealth. There are 373,524 voters who identify with another party and 922,354 voters who have no affiliation – a total of 8,755,937 voters in PA.
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3 Responses
Abortion is not a “reproductive right”, but it is a reproductive option. That is what the Supreme Court stated. Therefore the option is that of a State level law not a Federal one. Live in PA and you can still get an abortion. Shapiro seems like a very easy decision but when you get to Fetterman, he has way too many very far Left ideas for my tastes. I will split my vote accordingly. The Federal government will not even listen to a “pro-abortion” law at this point so Fetterman will not be effective for PA. Shapiro is the best bet for anti-religious people looking to abort babies.
C’mon ladies. Send shockwaves through the commonwealth.
Trafalgar is tremendous and very honest polling but I think they are off on the amount of young people including women who will vote. I just think their sample size in the recent Oz and Fetterman poll unintentionally low balled the younger voters numbers. The women voting will drive up the votes for Fetterman and Atty Gen Shapiro and that is so hard to predict in a sample size of a poll.