Democrats are fighting to hold onto 10 seats in the Senate from states that Trump won in 2016. Some of these seats may go red, but Pennsylvania currently doesn’t appear to be one of them.
In polling conducted of registered voters by Axios/SurveyMonkey from June 11 to July 2, Sen. Bob Casey (D) holds 55-41 lead over GOP challenger U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta.
Casey also held favorable numbers for his job approval from their polling. 15% strongly approved of the job Casey is doing while 41% somewhat approved. That same poll had 24% somewhat disapproving of Casey’s job and 15% strongly disapproving.
Pennsylvanians in this poll shared mixed feelings on the job performance of President Trump. 44% polled approved of Trump as of now with 55% disapproving – including 47% who strongly disapprove. There is a 29 point gender gap in his numbers. Men give him a four point positive margin while he’s 25 points underwater with women.
Although Casey’s Republican colleague, Sen. Pat Toomey, is not on the ballot this November, the pollster asked registered voters on his performance thus far. Only 6% strongly approved of Toomey’s job performance with 37% somewhat approving. That same poll had 28% somewhat disapprove of Toomey’s job performance with 24% strongly disapproving.
Perhaps the brightest spot for the GOP in this polling was the numbers on the economy. 43% believed the national economy as a whole is now better off than it was a year ago, with 29% believing it was the same, and 26% saying it has gotten worse.
Other miscellaneous questions included:
- DACA (respondents support it 64% to 33%)
- The Affordable Care Act (67% said keep it as-is or modify it so it works better; 30% said repeal it completely or let it fail).
- The tax law (50% disapprove the GOP bill, 45% approve).
Methodology: These SurveyMonkey/Axios online polls were conducted June 11 to July 2, 2018 among a total sample of 990 registered voters living in Pennsylvania. The modeled error estimate is plus or minus 4.5 points. Interviews were offered in Spanish. The data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of registered voters in each of the 10 states. The crosstabs by each state are available here.