Poll: Casey 55, Barletta 41

Democrats are fighting to hold onto 10 seats in the Senate from states that Trump won in 2016. Some of these seats may go red, but Pennsylvania currently doesn’t appear to be one of them.

In polling conducted of registered voters by Axios/SurveyMonkey from June 11 to July 2, Sen. Bob Casey (D) holds 55-41 lead over GOP challenger U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta.

Casey also held favorable numbers for his job approval from their polling. 15% strongly approved of the job Casey is doing while 41% somewhat approved. That same poll had 24% somewhat disapproving of Casey’s job and 15% strongly disapproving.

Pennsylvanians in this poll shared mixed feelings on the job performance of President Trump. 44% polled approved of Trump as of now with 55% disapproving – including 47% who strongly disapprove.  There is a 29 point gender gap in his numbers. Men give him a four point positive margin while he’s 25 points underwater with women.

Although Casey’s Republican colleague, Sen. Pat Toomey, is not on the ballot this November, the pollster asked registered voters on his performance thus far. Only 6% strongly approved of Toomey’s job performance with 37% somewhat approving. That same poll had 28% somewhat disapprove of Toomey’s job performance with 24% strongly disapproving.

Perhaps the brightest spot for the GOP in this polling was the numbers on the economy. 43% believed the national economy as a whole is now better off than it was a year ago, with 29% believing it was the same, and 26% saying it has gotten worse.

Other miscellaneous questions included:

  • DACA (respondents support it 64% to 33%)
  • The Affordable Care Act (67% said keep it as-is or modify it so it works better; 30% said repeal it completely or let it fail).
  • The tax law (50% disapprove the GOP bill, 45% approve).

From SurveyMonkey:

Methodology: These SurveyMonkey/Axios online polls were conducted June 11 to July 2, 2018 among a total sample of 990 registered voters living in Pennsylvania.  The modeled error estimate is plus or minus 4.5 points. Interviews were offered in Spanish. The data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of registered voters in each of the 10 states. The crosstabs by each state are available here.

15 Responses

  1. Kavanaugh is the President’s final selection for nomination to the Supreme Court. The process of selection will move on regardless of Senator Casey’s obvious bias for whom ever the President would have selected. In my opinion Kavanaugh will bring a balance to the court, based on his depth of judicial experience, and constitutional savvy. I will vote Barletta for Senator.

    1. Casey is an OBAMA loving racist and anti semite —no one did more to divide this Nation than the incompetent and polarizing Obama and his corrupt band of political thugs. Criticize Trump all you want- but it was Casey and Obama that lied to the Nation about Iran the IRS and so much else.
      We don’t have to like Trump – to be disgusted with Obama , the radical , vile and vulgar Democratic left and their water boy Casey the Radical. Bartletta if he gets off his rear wins a close one.

  2. Its a good thing that Senator Casey is ahead. The Coordinated campaign is doing nothing to help him, its all Wolf and Fetterman. No down ticket candidates either. Another Hillary Clinton screw up in Pennsylvania. Hope Wolf doesn’t end up like Hillary.

  3. Casey is an old-school Democrat who has always been primarily concerned with championing the little guy. Sticking to bread-and-butter issues plays a lot better than the politics of white grievance with the vast majority of people instead of catering to a shrinking minority of voters. A rising tide lifts all boats.

  4. The Axios/SurveyMonkey poll between Casey and Barletta oversampled Democrats by +9. Independents were under sampled in this poll. The poll numbers are skewed.

    Poll Sample Size

    Democrat – 50%
    Republican – 41%
    Independent – 9%

    1. You’re partly right. This is a poll of registered voters. According to the latest PA Voter registration numbers, PA voters are:

      Democrat: 48%
      Republican: 38%
      Indy/3rd Party: 14%

      So they oversampled Ds slightly, oversampled Rs slightly more, and undersampled everyone else.

      1. So you’re partly right. The number of registered voters only matters so much. The breakdown of how many people they poll from each party should be based on historical turnout numbers from past midterm elections. #TheMoreYouKnow

  5. This is at the lowest end of a point spread. Casey is listed by the very rigid Inside Elections non partisan newsletter as a “likely” Dem seat which is better than “leaning” and “tilting” and a step away from “solid” so all in all it looks good for Casey. The 14 points has been a consistent number for several months between Casey and Barletta and seems to be baking in as we move along.

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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