Barack Obama is in good shape in Pennsylvania according to the latest poll by Franklin & Marshall. The President has a solid lead over rival Mitt Romney, including a double-digit advantage among independents.
It’s a 4 point net gain for Obama since F&M’s February poll. The full results are here (PDF).
Obama leads 49 to 27 percent among independents, but both he and Romney retain a nearly identical portion of their bases (Dems are 72 to 11 for Obama, Republicans are 71 to 14 for Romney).
Obama leads almost every demographic category shown by the pollster: women (50 to 33); men (45 to 38); all age groups, including 55 and over (48 to 39); all income levels, including over $75,000 (52 to 39); retirees (44 to 38); white voters (44 to 39); Catholics (42 to 39) and several more.
Romney edges the President only among 5 groups: voters with some college education (41 to 40); Protestants (44 to 41) and Evangelicals (49 to 33); military veterans (52 to 31); and white, working-class voters, defined as having an annual household income between $35,000 and $75,000. Romney leads that group just 40 to 39 percent.
Romney’s favorability is in negative territory: 48 percent unfavorable to 27 percent favorable.
There is some silver lining for Republicans in the results. 24 percent of voters still haven’t formed an opinion of Romney Obama’s favorability is only narrowly positive, 47 percent to 41 percent who disapprove. 57 percent of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction, the highest percent since 2010. And of issues polled, Romney is most competitive with the President on when voters were asked about the economy (though Obama edges him 44 to 38 percent).
The policies associated with Obama have more limited appeal than he does. The auto bailout is approved 54 to 44 percent and the stimulus has a net positive rating, 44 to 38 percent, but it stops there. Voters disapprove of Obamacare 48 to 46 percent and disapprove of the bank bailout, which was started under George W. Bush and continued by Obama, 66 to 27 percent.
Really exciting are the regional numbers, the first any pollster has published in quite some time. They show that Romney has limited room to grow in the vote-rich southeast part of the state but is doing well in much of the “T” and leading in the southwest.
Northwest: Obama 42, Romney 52
Southwest: Obama 32, Romney 48
Central: Obama 34, Romney 44
Southeast: Obama 54, Romney 31
Allegheny: Obama 57, Romney 28
Northeast: Obama 56, Romney 24
Philadelphia: Obama 81, Romney 12
The Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College interviewed 412 Pennsylvania voters from May 29 to June 4, 2012. Democrats accounted for just over 50 percent of respondents, Republicans just under 38 percent (current registration in PA is 50.6 percent D, 38.1 percent R). The sample error is +/- 4.8 percent.
Here are the issue head-to-heads polled: