Poll: Obama 48, Romney 36

Barack Obama is in good shape in Pennsylvania according to the latest poll by Franklin & Marshall. The President has a solid lead over rival Mitt Romney, including a double-digit advantage among independents.

It’s a 4 point net gain for Obama since F&M’s February poll. The full results are here (PDF).

Obama leads 49 to 27 percent among independents, but both he and Romney retain a nearly identical portion of their bases (Dems are 72 to 11 for Obama, Republicans are 71 to 14 for Romney).

Obama leads almost every demographic category shown by the pollster: women (50 to 33); men (45 to 38); all age groups, including 55 and over (48 to 39); all income levels, including over $75,000 (52 to 39); retirees (44 to 38); white voters (44 to 39); Catholics (42 to 39) and several more.

Romney edges the President only among 5 groups: voters with some college education (41 to 40); Protestants (44 to 41) and Evangelicals (49 to 33); military veterans (52 to 31); and white, working-class voters, defined as having an annual household income between $35,000 and $75,000. Romney leads that group just 40 to 39 percent.

Romney’s favorability is in negative territory: 48 percent unfavorable to 27 percent favorable.

There is some silver lining for Republicans in the results. 24 percent of voters still haven’t formed an opinion of Romney Obama’s favorability is only narrowly positive, 47 percent to 41 percent who disapprove. 57 percent of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction, the highest percent since 2010. And of issues polled, Romney is most competitive with the President on when voters were asked about the economy (though Obama edges him 44 to 38 percent).

The policies associated with Obama have more limited appeal than he does. The auto bailout is approved 54 to 44 percent and the stimulus has a net positive rating, 44 to 38 percent, but it stops there. Voters disapprove of Obamacare 48 to 46 percent and disapprove of the bank bailout, which was started under George W. Bush and continued by Obama, 66 to 27 percent.

Really exciting are the regional numbers, the first any pollster has published in quite some time. They show that Romney has limited room to grow in the vote-rich southeast part of the state but is doing well in much of the “T” and leading in the southwest.

Northwest: Obama 42, Romney 52
Southwest: Obama 32, Romney 48
Central: Obama 34, Romney 44
Southeast: Obama 54, Romney 31
Allegheny: Obama 57, Romney 28
Northeast: Obama 56, Romney 24
Philadelphia: Obama 81, Romney 12

The Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College interviewed 412 Pennsylvania voters from May 29 to June 4, 2012. Democrats accounted for just over 50 percent of respondents, Republicans just under 38 percent (current registration in PA is 50.6 percent D, 38.1 percent R).  The sample error is +/- 4.8 percent.

Here are the issue head-to-heads polled:

6 Responses

  1. If Romney is only receiving 44% support in Central PA then he has no chance. He needs to receive at least 60% in Central PA to have any chance of winning. This poll does seem to be an outlayer. Obama in other polls has about a 6 point lead in PA.

  2. Dems, please believe this poll is credible. Keep ignoring the warning signs, Wisconsin last night. Chris Christie in 2009, Scott Brown winning TED KENNEDY’S seat in 2010. The 2010 midterms, with results not seen since the 1930’s. Losing a Democratic Congressional seat in BROOKLYN!! Prepare for the wave in November!!

  3. Time is running for Pr. Obama: support, money, US economy…I have NO doubt that Pr. Obama will be re-elected in 2012 ( but is NOT done until Obama is officially re-elected)! I do believe that Mr. Romney can get maximum 40-45% votes in November election! I did NOT agree with everything what President did during last 3 years, but HE has the best vision how to win the future for USA. President is honest person who is doing his best to move this country forward in right direction. My support to Pr. Obama re-election is my investment: what kind of future I want for this Country… He has much more to say and accomplish, during next 5 years as a President!
    My the biggest concerns right now are: unemployment, dysfunctional Congress , US economy and house market depression…

  4. I think the poll numbers cited for independents here is absolute hogwash and wishful thinking.

    I agree with John’s post that Obama is more concerned about himself than the realities the unions and others face.

    Romney is portrayed as “rich”, but it is Obama that spends millions on a single vacation. The independents are more aware of Obama than this article suggests.

  5. Telling demographics. Again, now we will have to see who turns out and votes in November. While I do not expect a vast slide in urban democrats voting against Obama, they may not be motivated to go and vote FOR him again.

    I also do not see the same under 30 support of Obama as he enjoyed last election considering their unemployment situation.

    Minority unemployment and economic situations will also be a major consideration on who shows up to vote and also who is strongly motivated to volunteer within that demographic.

    Failing to go and stump in Wisconsin after “the finger was put into the air to test the winds” will be in the back of the minds of many union voters. The seed is now planted with them that the President is more concerned about himself than the unions he claims to strongly support.

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