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Poll: Trump Trails Generic Dem

Although the upcoming Iowa caucuses have taken center stage in the national political discussion, new polling shows President Donald Trump trailing in a number of key battleground states, including Pennsylvania. 

According to a new Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, 47.1% of self-identified registered voters said that they would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate if the 2020 presidential election were held today, while 37.3% said they’d vote for Trump, and 15.6% say they are undecided. 46.3% polled said that they are “almost certain” to vote against Trump no matter whom the Democrats nominate for president, while just 33.4% said they are “almost certain” to vote for Trump no matter whom the Democratic Party nominee will be, with 12.9% saying they may vote or against Trump depending on his Democratic opponent and 7.4% voted that they were unsure. 

The 15.6% voters who said they were currently undecided are split evenly between leaning to supporting Trump or the Democratic Party nominee. 15.9% of those who are undecided said they are leaning more towards the Democratic Party’s candidate, while 15.6% said they are learning towards support Trump’s reelection effort and 68.5% said they were unsure how they leaned. 

44.3% polled said they approve of the way Trump is handling his job as President, while 49.9% disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as President, and 5.8% saying they are unsure. 

This online poll, surveying 1,037 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania conducted between Jan 8- Jan. 20, has a ±3.3% margin of error. 

Three specific sets of issues led the way for importance to Pennsylvania voters when they think about their vote for president. The top issue on the minds of Pennsyvlanians polled was economic issues at 29.2%, with healthcare issues coming in second place at 25.6%, and security issues at 21.4%. None of the other three issues given to those cracked 10%. 

Trump’s strongest numbers of those three top issues were how he handles the economy. 52.3% said they either strongly or somewhat approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 41.8% said that they strongly or somewhat disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy and 6% saying that they are unsure. 

Trump’s numbers on his handling of healthcare policies were nearly the mirror opposite of the way Pennsylvanians view his economic record. 51.3% said they either strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump’s handling on healthcare policy, while 39.8% said they either strongly or somewhat approve of his handling of healthcare related issues. 

Although there wasn’t a specific poll asking for Trump’s approval rating on “security issues,” Trump’s ratings were under water on immigration (-4.5), environment (-16), and foreign affairs (-6.5). 

Another foreign affairs based question provided mixed results for Trump as well. 48.7% either strongly or somewhat approved Trump’s airstrike at Baghdad International Airport that killed Iran’s top general, Qasem Soleimain, while only 38.8% strongly or somewhat disapproved, and 12.4% were unsure. However, 51% polled believe that the policies from Trump’s administration towards Iran have made Americans less safe, while 35.1% believe these actions have made America safer and 13.9% say they are unsure. 

One thing that seemingly is uniting voters is their motivation to vote in the upcoming presidential election. 75.4% said they were “very motivated” to vote in November’s presidential election, while 18.8% said they were somewhat motivated, and only 2.7% said they are not motivated at all. 

This same polling showed that Trump trailed whoever the Democratic presidential nominee will be in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to, a poll from Baldwin Wallace a month before the 2016 election showed Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Trump 43.2% to 34.4% with a “substantial number” undecided at the time in Ohio. In the 2016 election, Clinton received nearly exactly the number from that poll, 43.6%, but Trump won by a comfortable margin carrying 51.7% of the vote in the state.

See the full data here.

4 Responses

  1. Well, we’ve gotten rid of the the sh*tty Dem party chair we had in 2016, who seemed to have been too busy packing for an expected ambassadorship, to actually win PA for Hillary.

    So, that will help.

    1. Despite the sarcasm, I’m certain that whomever the Democratic nominee is, he or she will have learned from Hillary’s mistakes.

      1. Sarcasm? You’re projecting. It’s a simple question. It’s only ulterior motive is to imply the lousy quality of similar “polling” in 2016.

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