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Sabato Ranks PA Senate Race Likely Democrat

Source: Larry Sabato

Larry Sabato has released his Crystal Ball ratings for the 2018 senate races.  He is predicting that Pennsylvania is likely to keep Senator Bob Casey.  

Sabato acknowledged that Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but argues that Casey’s previous wins will help him.  In 2012 Casey ran ahead of Obama in the state, besting Obama’s vote total by 31,090 votes.  

From Sabato:

Republican challenges to Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Tim Kaine (D-VA) are probably longer shots. Trump won Michigan and Pennsylvania last year and came close in Minnesota, but the Senate incumbents in all three states each have won multiple statewide victories and ran ahead of Obama in 2012. Kaine’s vice-presidential campaign, while not making much of a ripple nationally, probably contributed to Clinton running slightly ahead of Obama’s 2012 margin in the Old Dominion. All four Democrats start as clear favorites at Likely Democratic.

Nationally, Sabato has Republicans holding all of their seats up in 2018, and three current Democratic seats listed as tossups.  They are North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana.

10 Responses

  1. Hey bungy, I bet you will see the biggest crowd ever in the history of mankind. Just like Trump’s biggest Electoral College win margin, EVER, oops I mean Republicans, oops I mean that’s what I was told….

  2. With the retirement of Babs “Call Me ‘Senator'” Boxer, PA doesn’t have the Second Stupidest Senator any more.

    If only the Republicans had a viable candidate.

  3. This State and Country are CHANGING. The PITCHFORKS are out. Casey will LOSE in 18. Wait until You see the SIZE of the Trump rally Saturday. The Mainstream Media is DONE.

  4. Casey will win because the Republicans won’t field a strong, well financed, credible candidate in 2018.

  5. @ G. Trump won the majority in 31 States. GOP won Congress and Senate. GOP controls more State houses and Governorships than ever. Believe me, I hope your beloved Barack gets involved in his post-presidency in trying to build on his “legacy”.

  6. @Patric it seems to me that the democrats are the “mainstream” seeing as more people voted for their candidates at every level of government.

  7. Larry was spot on in 2016…LOL. All you libs who think these trumped up headlines on Flynn and whatever else is the crisis of the day in the NY Times, WAPO, CNN, are hurting Trump are sorely mistaken. Theses so called “problems” for Trump are only highlighting the real problems with the establishment/shadow government and media. Big boomerang coming. The masses are still with him. The snowflakes in the safe space that is the Democratic party are pushing themselves further and further from the mainstream.

  8. When PA recovers their sanity, Dems should win easily. Voters should want to get as far away from Trump as possible by then.

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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