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SP&R: Wagner 37, Mango 23, Ellsworth 18

In a new poll from from Susquehanna Polling and Research and WHTM state Sen. Scott Wagner holda a 14 point lead of his closest rival in Tuesday’s primary.

The poll shows 37% of voters said they would vote for Wagner, while 23% said they would vote for businessman Paul Mango and 18% said they would vote for lawyer Laura Ellsworth.  

The primary has been marked by a very aggressive ad campaign between Mango and Wagner, but most respondents, 65%, said the ads did not have a effect on who they plan to vote for.  

All three of the candidates’ favorability ratings are above water, with Wagner having the most favorable rating.  36% have a favorable opinion of Wagner versus 27% unfavorable. Mango has a 33-30 favorable rating, and Ellsworth has a 19-14 favorable rating.  

Despite the attack ads circulating throughout the primary, 67% of voters said they are happy with the choices for Governor.  

The poll was conducted between May 4th and 8th surveying 545 Republican voters using automated telephone calls.  The margin of error is 4.2%.

14 Responses

  1. If I was the Mango camp I would want a new election.It seems that on some machines if you hit the x for Mango at the top the vote jumped to Wagner.If you weren’t paying attention to your whole vote and continued down the list without looking again the vote for Mango went to Wagner.

  2. It’s going to be pretty funny when Ellsworth comes in 2nd place tonight. New Mango campaign materials idea: “I spent millions to come in 3rd and all I got is this lousy T-shirt”

  3. I am confident that Paul Mango will win this Primary Election because many of my GOP friends said they would vote for Paul Mango. If you go out and vote today for Paul Mango, you will make a difference. Scott Wagner has tons of luggage, supports transgender bathrooms and hinders our working class, military, fire, and police. This is the same with Lou Barletta in the U.S. Senate Primary. We want candidates that can win, not lose, in November. People who have polls going against the will of the voters is not what elections are all about. The Democrat Party wants you to think that way, and that is what they do all the time. They like to set out traps for those who are against for what they believe in.

    I am asking each and everyone of you to vote for Jim Christiana for the U.S. Senate (B1), Paul Mango for Governor (B4), and Diane Vaughan for Lieutenant Governor (B7). The GOP is not over. The GOP is alive and well, especially in Pennsylvania. It has obstacles to counteract, which means we got to keep on fighting for the principals that our Founding Fathers believed in.

  4. Points mentioned in comments are all solid especially (1) Ellsworth ran a good campaign and came on strong too late to make a difference and (2) Val DiGiorgio will not be carrying Wagner into the Gov’s Office in 2018 and (3) Trash biz is a tough sell and the politically inexperienced Wagner will get bogged down losing by 8 to 10 points. It really should be by a lot more as Wagner is an atrociously bad candidate–surly looking, combative in demeanor and lacks the charm of a Tom Ridge–in short, the firm Pa conservative Pa base will get votes for Wagner he really didn’t earn. Like getting a handicap in golf of 8 to 10 strokes before you set foot on the course Wagner has a certain percentage he gets simply being the Republican nominee but it won’t be anywhere near enough to win. Bottom line: Wolf in November by 8 to 10 points.

    1. Wagner is exactly what Tom Wolf hopes for in November as he’s so tainted by his own misdeeds (even his daughter goes to Court to get a PFA against him) its a real “walk in the park” for the Governor as to his reelection and the resulting second-term.

      It’s a lesson for the Party (as Val is not aware of) that you need to vet the background of the party candidate…

      As Katherine Wagner got a PFA on her own father (Scott Wagner), it’s a point that Governor Wolf may be happy to exploit for his reelection efforts (and rerun the Mango ads).

      I’m voting Mango, but it’s likely Wagner as our party candidate?

      Then Governor Wolf is reelected!

      Way to go GOP as we pick winners?

  5. I think the interesting number to watch tomorrow night is how much Ellsworth outperforms the 18% number in this poll. Her TV ad was good, but too little too late, but I think she will cut into both Wagner and Mango’s numbers. At the end of the night though, Wagner will prevail. Then it will be interesting to see how quickly he goes nasty on Wolf. You know it is going to happen, but Wolf will be saved by the fact that he’s never had a legislature that would work with him on his progressive agenda. If you don’t like the way the state is being run – it falls on the Republican legislature.

  6. Mango’s ads are really funny as can be said as to negative ads. He’s really hit a theme with “Sell-Out Scott” (Wagner) as to the crazy baggage of Wagner…it’s a logic thesis to see Wagner losing to Wolf in the General Election as the Governor isn’t getting his “hands dirty” in re negativity…as Paul Mango is doing that job for the Governor.

    Val DiGiorgio is a clown, who isn’t able to carry Wagner into the Governor’s Mansion—despite his best efforts to prop-up Wagner.

    Wagner wins the Nomination, but it’s a “ain’t going his way” in November as the Wolf campaign can simply rehash the “Toxic Wagner” (and all else) talk to destroy Wagner as he goes down in a 8-14 point loss in the Upcoming General Election.

    Mango is a better choice, but it’s a lock for Scott Wagner via the party establishment.

  7. Wagner wins tomorrow, probably comfortably. Then goes on to lose to wolf by 8.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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