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Suffolk University Poll: Clinton 50 Trump 41

Hillary-DonaldHillary Clinton has opened up a lead over Donald Trump in the Keystone State, with the latest Suffolk University poll hinting at a bit of a convention bounce for the Democratic presidential nominee.

The Suffolk poll was conducted from July 25th to July 27th, spanning the first three nights of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

The former Secretary of State leads the real estate mogul 50-41, with 9% undecided when Clinton and Trump are the only choices, according to the poll.

Clinton again beats Trump by 9 points when the Libertarian Party’s nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s nominee Jill Stein are on the ballot in PA.

“Hillary Clinton is flirting with fifty thanks to Philly,” Suffolk University Research Center Director David Paleologos said. “At this point, Clinton’s large lead in the Philadelphia area is offsetting losses to Trump in other parts of the state.”

In a four-candidate race, Clinton leads Trump in the state’s three most populated regions (69-20 in Philly, 47-28 in the southwest and 43-40 in the northeast), while Trump holds a solid edge in western (50-36) and central PA (44-38).

Women support Clinton over Trump 50-31, while men back Trump over Clinton 44-41, according to the poll.

Interestingly, but not surprisingly, Pennsylvanians hold VT Sen. Bernie Sanders and President Barack Obama in higher regards than they do their 2016 presidential candidates.

Sanders has a +31 favorability rating (60-29), while Obama holds a +4 rating (52-48). Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings, -4 and -24, respectively.

Suffolk University also polled respondents on some of the major talking points of this election so far.

56% of Pennsylvanians feel less safe than 5-10 years ago, and only 13% feel more safe, according to the poll.

31% believe terrorism and national security is the number one issue facing the next president, 21% are most concerned about the economy and jobs and 8% believe the future of the Supreme Court of the United States is most important.

49% of Keystone Staters believe the FBI was correct to not indict Hillary Clinton over the private email server she used as Secretary of State, but 45% wanted to see the investigation and prosecution move forward.

Though many felt the case warranted a different outcome, the poll found the FBI to be the third-most trusted government institution (63%), with only the Armed Forces (93%) and the Post Office (87%) more trusted by Pennsylvanians.

Some of the findings should be taken with a grain of salt, however, as the poll found Katie McGinty had a 7-point lead, her biggest so far, over incumbent Pat Toomey in their U.S. Senate race.

Suffolk University polled 500 likely voters in Pennsylvania using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2016 general election. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The poll was conducted between July 25th and July 27th.

19 Responses

  1. I just hope new first woman will be new history this woman is first president in November 2016 good news she do this help the stock and support black and his people plus help and support any handicappers peoples I hoped new vision future ♡☆♡☆♡☆☆☆☆☆ FIRST PRESIDENT WOMAN NEW HISTORY NEW FACE 2016 ♤♤♤♤♤♤♤☆☆☆☆☆☆☆

  2. Clinton now up 6 in National Polls. As much as this pains me to say: I am glad. Trump is an asshole.

  3. Interesting that this site quotes Suffolk University but not the much more highly regarded CNN poll that shows Trump up by 5% in a 4 way race (which is what should be measured since both the Libertarian and Green parties stand to do much better this election year). Try to be objective friends. This is going to be a very close election. There will be no blowouts by either side and, yes, as Rob says, turnout is important but this year it will be turnout vs. turnover as hundreds of thousands of blue collar Democrats will be voting for Trump. If Hillary cannot get the folks inspired she will be getting the short end of the stick. As usual, 3-4 swing states will seal the deal. Trump has been coming on strong in PA and FL and making inroads in Ohio. PA and Ohio are states where his stand on jobs is making headway. Not sure why he has shown improving strength in FL. And please everyone cool down a little. It’s a big, big Government and there’s a reason there is a division of powers. No matter which candidate wins, the sky will not fall.

  4. Rob – totally agree. The Rs have become the party of cheaters, scammers, and con-artists.

    Just compare CLE and PHI. One party loves America and one is a radicalized abortion of fear-mongering.

  5. Unsanctioned R, pretty much admitting the only way Republicans can win is passing unconstitutional voter restriction bills (the one was just overturned today in NC) and counting on low voter turnout. Higher voter turnout means Dem’s win. Cue the “dead people voting” crowd in 3,2,1…

  6. It will be interesting to see if this marks the start of a trend or is an outlier. Time will tell. Polls should be more meaningful in the coming weeks, especially once September hits and folks are tuning in with the Olympics over and the conventions fading in the rearview.

  7. Hillary mentioned her Dad played football for Penn State.

    If Hillary puts that in her ads, she wins PA. 🙂

  8. Yep. It’s true. DNCC not even over yet, and HRC already dominating Trump in Pennsylvania.

  9. No one listen to idiot Unsanctioned R. He knows that voter suppression is the only way for R’s to win. That’s just sad and pathetic but Republicans are sad and pathetic people.

  10. Like I’ve been saying over and over: nothing to worry about Dems. Just stay home Election Day. There’s no way Trump can win.

  11. I have a feeling that this is an outlier. Clinton and the Dems will get a bounce, but hard to place McGinty ahead comfortably like this does.

    Check in two weeks.

  12. This does not surprise me at all. Like I have been saying all along – it will be Hillary and Katie in landslide victories.

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