Suffolk University Poll: Clinton 50 Trump 41
The Suffolk poll was conducted from July 25th to July 27th, spanning the first three nights of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
The former Secretary of State leads the real estate mogul 50-41, with 9% undecided when Clinton and Trump are the only choices, according to the poll.
“Hillary Clinton is flirting with fifty thanks to Philly,” Suffolk University Research Center Director David Paleologos said. “At this point, Clinton’s large lead in the Philadelphia area is offsetting losses to Trump in other parts of the state.”
In a four-candidate race, Clinton leads Trump in the state’s three most populated regions (69-20 in Philly, 47-28 in the southwest and 43-40 in the northeast), while Trump holds a solid edge in western (50-36) and central PA (44-38).
Women support Clinton over Trump 50-31, while men back Trump over Clinton 44-41, according to the poll.
Interestingly, but not surprisingly, Pennsylvanians hold VT Sen. Bernie Sanders and President Barack Obama in higher regards than they do their 2016 presidential candidates.
Sanders has a +31 favorability rating (60-29), while Obama holds a +4 rating (52-48). Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings, -4 and -24, respectively.
Suffolk University also polled respondents on some of the major talking points of this election so far.
56% of Pennsylvanians feel less safe than 5-10 years ago, and only 13% feel more safe, according to the poll.
31% believe terrorism and national security is the number one issue facing the next president, 21% are most concerned about the economy and jobs and 8% believe the future of the Supreme Court of the United States is most important.
49% of Keystone Staters believe the FBI was correct to not indict Hillary Clinton over the private email server she used as Secretary of State, but 45% wanted to see the investigation and prosecution move forward.
Though many felt the case warranted a different outcome, the poll found the FBI to be the third-most trusted government institution (63%), with only the Armed Forces (93%) and the Post Office (87%) more trusted by Pennsylvanians.
Some of the findings should be taken with a grain of salt, however, as the poll found Katie McGinty had a 7-point lead, her biggest so far, over incumbent Pat Toomey in their U.S. Senate race.
Suffolk University polled 500 likely voters in Pennsylvania using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2016 general election. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The poll was conducted between July 25th and July 27th.