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Vernon Campaign Releases Internal Poll for PA-Senate

By Ali Carey, Contributing Writer

Colonel John Vernon may be a new face on the political scene, but the results of an internal poll released today by his campaign show he has a profile that resonates with the GOP base.

National Research Inc., a Republican polling firm whose clients include New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, conducted a statewide poll for the Vernon for Senate 2012 Campaign Committee.  The telephone survey was taken on September 19-20 and had a sampling of 500 likely PA voters.  The full memo is below.

The results indicated that Democratic Senator Bob Casey is showing early signs of vulnerability.  Casey’s favorability rating is 47 percent, his job approval rating is 46 percent, and his ballot score against a generic Republican is 46 percent – figures that are roughly in line with independent polling this year.

Among Independent voters, Casey’s job approval rating is 41 percent and he earns 45 percent against a generic Republican.

The National Research, Inc. survey asked Republican and Independent respondents to vote based on biographical descriptions of each of the major Republican candidates running for the party’s nomination.  The biographical descriptions for each candidate was taken from each of the campaign’s websites or campaign literature – read the poll memo to see the description.

Vernon came out in front with 29 percent of the vote. Steve Welch was second with 15 percent, followed by Laureen Cummings at 13 percent. David Christian and Tom Smith each garnered 6 percent of the vote Marc Scaringi at 5 percent. 24 percent were undecided.

Granted it’s an internal campaign polling memo, which are most often released to the public by campaigns seeking to demonstrate viability. Additionally, public memos typically contain only the positive highlights of polling.

Nonetheless, Vernon’s effort to poll the state so early is the sign of a serious campaign.

National Research Inc., argues that based on the results of their recent poll John Vernon is one of the few candidates who can win in a presidential year for the following reasons:

“He unites the establishment and Tea party wings.  He has the right messages and the right background. He is popular with base Republicans, but also with Independent voters.  He is an outsider and a fresh face when that is exactly what voters want.  Besides his fiscal positions, he has an experience in military and foreign affairs unmatched by any of the other candidates.”

Vernon’s campaign is very encouraged by the results of this recent poll.

“When people hear John Vernon and see him and meet him, they see him as someone that’s a real conservative and has the experience to be their Senator,” said Robb Austin, Vernon’s Communication Director.

Austin emphasize that Vernon is truly an “active candidate.”

“He is on the road every week meeting voters in different parts of the state and he is learning a great deal about what’s on the minds of the people of the commonwealth,” Austin said.  “He connects extremely well with voters.  Our goal is to get as well known as possible and reach out to voters and get known as much as we can.”

Here is the complete memo:

Vernon Poll Memo

11 Responses

  1. I look forward to hearing Colonel Vernon speak to the issues out in Chester County, PA

    I’d vote for a box of hammers over Bob Casey.

  2. The numbers shown on this poll are a joke. This was an obvious push-poll as shown by the pollster’s description of the methodology. The candidate description of John Vernon that was provided to poll participants reads like his mommy wrote it.

    Meanwhile, descriptions of his competitors either left out key information or were unflattering. If anything, this poll tells us that John Vernon is organized enough to pay for a poll to give him the results that he paid for.

  3. Pennsylvanians are looking towards a candidate that can demonstrate both leadership and courage. It is very interesting how most of Mr. Vernon’s biography looks like it was copied from David Christian’s life and biography. David is the true leader that has demonstrated leadership and courage and is ready to shake up . If anyone should be the next Senator from Pennsylvania it should be Mr. Christian.

  4. Kudos to TURN for suggesting a face to face meeting with Col. Vernon. The stakes are just too high.

    The old saying in politics is that he who runs negative ads first doesn’t like their own poll data. Thus, given that Col. Vernon is the first (that I can find) to disclose poll information is very telling to me.

    “In God We Trust, all others must bring data”. W. Edwards Deming

  5. I am pleased to see that David Diano has seen the future. He is backing Senator Robert Casey as the odds on favorite. Mr. Diano’s strong support for Arlen Specter helped the venerable Senator lose to Admiral Sestak who went on to lose to now Senator Toomey. The oracle has spoken. Place your bets accordingly.

  6. I met Tom Smith last night @ dinner, and he appears to be a “solid conservative” as well.

    Moreover, he projects a sense of humility that contrasts with that of Steve Welch.

    His campaign-organization has a strong Toomey-vintage; it is being run by Mark Harris, et al. and Tom contributed EIGHT years ago to Toomey [also having supported John Thune…who defeated Tom Daschle].

    Note that they already placed a banner-ad on this site.

    Realistic handicapping is amplified by support from John Kennedy and input from Guzzardi; Scaringi’s association with Santorum [and his spending-history] is viewed as toxic.

    I’m also told that only Tom and Steve are sufficiently wealthy to assist in a self-funding effort; this is a realistic consideration during the upcoming cycle…everything else being equal.

    Tom plans to visit SE-PA often, to get to know the Committee-People; this-a.m., he is finishing his 2-day roll-out…starting in Scranton.

    Also, it appears [private information] that Sam Rohrer was going to have announced any intention to run by Labor Day…and the fact that he only raised $300K last cycle portends he may want to remain the chair of ATR.

    Regarding the poll, it would appear that the discussion of the preferred candidate was a bit more inflated than that of the competitors but, regardless, it would appear that it would be “fun” to ask them all to appear loco-regionally for a loose-format issues-discussion.

    Tom is particularly versed in business, the environment, and energy-related issues; he recognizes the need for the political-conversion of D.C. to be completed in 2012 [including a Senate Super-Majority].

    Finally, it would appear that the ability to encompass both the standard-GOP and the TEA Party Movement will be pivotal, and it appears that Tom can do so; I do not know where the others will be positioned.

    One more point: when Tom speaks, he looks you in the eye; he’s sincere and obviously carries no political baggage.

  7. Toomey is a business guru. John Vernon with his military and foreign service experience would make a terrific partner to Toomey. John has no political baggage.

  8. While I do not place a lot of stock in this particular polling data. I have spoken at length with Mr. Scaringi who traveled here to have lunch with our committee. I have met Mr. Smith a couple of times, and at this point I am leaning toward the former.

    I do look forward to hearing Mr. Vernon and will give him a fair analysis. This is about policy, not personalities.

  9. Anyone following Casey knows that even Rachael Maddow from MSNBC was digging at him for back peddling on the Jobs Act. People know that Casey will disassociate himself from Obama’s failed policies. Construction jobs to pave roads won’t stimulate the economy and we know that raising taxes like Hoover and FDR did in the 1930’s doesn’t end a Recession. If Casey thought that this was going to work, he’d be supporting it. He’s NOT.

    I find this poll to be indicative of the entire mood across the country. The special election for NY-09 2 weeks ago showed that Americans are tuned in to the issues and are indeed looking for non co-opted or financially backed “bobble heads” who jump party or flip on issues when it works to political advantage.

    People are looking for proven leaders, and as the poll results showed Col. Vernon has a good handle on fiscal issues AND foreign policy. He’s walked the soil of the Middle East and understands the challenges better than anyone who has been sitting behind a desk in DC or PA for that matter.

  10. mr. ed-
    You lack a lot of horse sense. Santorum, Toomey and any other Republican would be a bobble head for the Tea Party and right-wing extremists opposing Obama.

    Casey’s polling is solid, especially when you consider the approval ratings of congress and other politicians out there.

  11. My wife and I voted for Casey against Santorium but this guy proved to be a real light weight. He votes almost always the way the Obama Administration wants. He will not get our vote again. Why have a bobble head figure for the President, anyone can vote like that.

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