F&M Poll: Pennsylvania Becomes More Polarized, Trump’s Support Slightly Down
The latest Franklin & Marshall poll showed that Pennsylvanians are becoming more polarized in their support of Governor Tom Wolf, while Senator Bob Casey sees a highwater mark for favorability, and President Trump’s support has dropped in the state.
In the poll, 36% of registered voters favorable opinion of Wolf, mostly in line with his numbers throughout his tenure. Wolf’s strongly favorable numbers saw a large increase, up to 16% from 12% in the last poll. Wolf’s unfavorables also saw a stark increase. 34% of voters had a strongly unfavorable opinion of Wolf, the highest of his tenure, up from 19% in the last poll. Wolf’s job performance is underwater, with 55% of voters saying he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job.
Casey’s favorability hit a new high (since February 2009) of 45%, with 17% strongly and 28% somewhat favorable. 37% of voters also said that Casey was doing an “excellent” or “good” job, compared to 42% saying he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job.
53% of voters in the state said Trump is doing a “poor” job so far, while only 29% said he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job. Trump’s strongest support in the state comes from the southwest and northwest, and self-described conservatives. Trump’s strongest opposition comes from the two major cities with 59% of voters in Allegheny county and 57% in Philadelphia described themselves as Trump opponents.
The two Republican statewide candidates F&M polled on have name recognition problems currently. State Senator and Gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner (R-York) has an 8% favorable rating and 9% unfavorable rating, with 77% not knowing enough about him to form an opinion. Congressman and Senate candidate Lou Barletta (R-Luzerne) has similar numbers with a 15% favorable and 9% unfavorable, but 68% saying they do not know enough about him.
F&M polled 398 registered voters from September 13th through 18th. Respondents were contacted by letter and given the choice between phone interview or online interview. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.2%
F&M calculates job approval differently than most pollsters that tends to result in lower ratings – regardless of party. Respondents choose between a rating of excellent, good, fair, and poor. The approval numbers are pulled from the excellent and good categories.