AARP Poll: PA Voters 50 and Up Lean Biden 50, Trump 47

Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a narrow edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania among likely voters 50 years old and above, according to this latest poll. 

An AARP poll of 50 year old and above likely voters in the state released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 50%-to-47%. Trump narrowed the margin by 1 point, in comparison to September’s polling that showed Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 50%-to-46%. 

Biden’s advantage among this group in the state can be pointed to his strength among likely voters 65-plus. 57% of likely voters 65-plus said they would vote for Biden for president if the election were held today, while 40% said that they would vote for Trump. In September’s polling, Biden led among this group by just 11 points, 53%-to-42%. 

While Biden added to his lead with voters 65-plus, Trump also made gains over Biden among likely voters in the state between the ages of 50-to-64 years of age. 

52% of likely voters between the ages of 50-to-64 years of age said they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while 46% said that they would vote for Biden. In September’s polling, Trump only held a 2 point advantage, 49%-to-47%, among these voters. 

These results would be a significant shift in comparison to 2016’s showdown between Trump and Sec. Hillary Clinton. According to CBS News exit polling, Trump carried voters 65 or older by 10 points, 54-to-44, over Clinton in the state. Trump also bested Clinton by 8 points, 53-to-45, among voters between the ages of 50-64 in the state. This exit polling from the previous presidential election showed that voters 50 years or older were 51% of the vote in the state. 

This poll, conducted by Benenson Strategy Group, conducted 683 interviews with likely 2020 voters ages 50+ in the state from Oct. 13-15. Data was weighed to ensure it was representative of the likely voting universe of 50+ voters.

The margin of error for the entire data is ±3.75% at the 95% confidence level. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Benenson Strategy Group favors Democrats by an average of 0.7% and has an overall B/C grade. 

The full Pennsylvania data from AARP can be found here.

4 Responses

  1. I would love to see the internals to this poll. Pure baloney. I belong to a men’s group with about 50 members which has been meeting outdoors since August. Not one who voted for Trump in 2016 is now voting for Biden. No one is willing to allow Biden to grab hold of our retirement investments or decrease our net worth with Bernie’s, AOC’s or Warren’s socialist policies which Joe has to pay back for the democratic nomination.

  2. Trump cannot win a PA which has a HUGE aging population if he is losing to Biden in the demographic by 17 points! It ain’t gonna happen. What is worse is for R down ballot candidates as this is the sign of political doom for those in swing districts like Bucks County.

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