The latest Franklin & Marshall College poll shows the Democratic candidates are still in a favorable position with less than two weeks remaining before Election Day.
The poll, which was conducted prior to Tuesday’s U.S. Senate debate, shows Josh Shapiro with a 23-point advantage (56-33%) over GOP challenger Doug Mastriano, while John Fetterman enjoys a five-point edge (48-43%) over Republican nominee Mehmet Oz.
One of the survey’s most notable findings is how dissatisfied GOP respondents are with their party’s nominees for Senate and governor. The poll indicated that both Oz and Mastriano are running well behind a generic Republican candidate, particularly among traditional Republicans, while support among Democrats for Fetterman and Shapiro is much more cohesive.
Of those surveyed, 2 in 3 registered voters are “very interested” in the upcoming election while 9 in 10 said they are “certain” to cast their ballot. One in four (28%) said they were planning to vote by mail. Not surprisingly, more Democrats (45%) than Republicans (11%) planned to vote by that method.
There is little good news for the GOP candidate for the governor’s mansion in the poll, which sees the Democratic Attorney General increasing his advantage from September’s F&M poll by 13 points. Shapiro has 91 percent support amongst Dem voters, while the GOP state senator from Franklin County is garnering just 69 percent support among Republicans.
Shapiro’s favorability ratings have improved since the last F&M survey and currently sits at plus-21 (53-32). Mastriano, on the other hand, has seen his ratings drop to minus-27 (30-57). The AG’s numbers are also better on questions of understanding the concerns of Pennsylvanians (55-31%), social issues (56-29%) and improving voters’ economic conditions (43-34%).
Fetterman continues to hold a slight edge over Oz, although Tuesday’s debate followed after the conclusion of the survey.
Since the last F&M poll, the race has not changed much (45-42%). Oz has shown improvement in bringing Republicans back under the tent at 82 percent, while Fetterman continues to show strength among the base (84%). The pair is essentially deadlocked when looking at the independent vote.
Both candidates are underwater in favorability ratings. Fetterman is now a minus-8 with a 43% favorable and 51% unfavorable marks. Oz’s unfavorables double the lieutenant governor’s at minus-19 (38-57%).
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 14-23. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall. The data included in this release represent the responses of 620 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 280 Democrats, 254 Republicans, and 86 independents.
The sample error for this survey is +/- 5.3 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered.