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F&M Poll: Clinton, Trump Hold Onto Their Leads

Hillary TrumpNot much has changed over the past month when it comes to how Pennsylvanians view the presidential race.

That’s the conclusion one reaches when looking at the latest Franklin & Marshall poll.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump still lead their party’s fields.

On the Democratic side, Clinton expanded her margin over Bernie Sanders from 17 to 21 points. Among likely voters, the former Secretary of State leads 51% to 29%.

Dem Presidential Primary Feb 2016

Furthermore, when broken down by demographics, Hillary leads Bernie among all categories except voters under 35 years old.

Democrats still like both candidates, though, with Clinton and Sanders scoring favorability ratings of 65% and 62% respectively.

On the Republican side, Trump is holding his lead although his numbers are dipping a bit. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio and John Kasich (who have each scored prominent PA endorsements) have risen in the polls while Cruz’s standing has eroded.

GOP Presidential Primary Feb 2016 

There is a big gender gap in the GOP race as Trump holds a ten point lead among men but is tied with Rubio among women. The billionaire also does better with the “slightly conservative” and those that did not earn a college degree.

Finally, Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans are actually poor. It seems one either likes him or doesn’t. Just 45% have a favorable opinion of the New Yorker compared to 42% that have an unfavorable opinion.

For Cruz the split is 48/33 while Rubio posts a solid 61/19.

This poll was conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. They surveyed 486 registered Democrats and 371 registered Republican voters from February 13th to February 21st. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.

7 Responses

  1. To Neez:
    Please provide us with your evidence that “Most of those non-landline household also don’t vote.” It is true that seniors are more likely to vote than younger voters, and Hispanic turnout is often low, but those trends are changing. I know of no evidence that cell phone users do not vote. I think you just made that up. There is evidence, however, that cell phone users are more likely to vote Democratic, and because they are younger they are probably more likely to vote for Bernie Sanders.

  2. Agreed, the polling methodology is amateurish, and basically worthless among Dems. Repubes tend to hang onto thier landlines, along with their guns and bibles.

    Given that disclaimer, it’s fun to see how both frontrunners are immensely unpopular with All Voters:

    “Clinton is viewed favorably by 65 percent of the Democrats in the poll but unfavorably by 56 percent of all voters surveyed.

    “Trump’s popularity is split among Republican voters – he is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent, the poll shows. Among all voters, he has an unfavorable rating of 62 percent.”

    Both party chairmen try to explain it away, but the fact is, both of them are very dislikeable people, and the party that nominates someone other than one of these two will get a twenty point bump right off the bat.

  3. Sestak had 21% McGinty 12% Fetterman 8% in the Bar Graph attached

    to this poll. The verbiage had different numbers. This poll is screwed up, however. It had Hillary 17% ahead, with Bernie picking up in the bar graph in my paper, but in the verbiage in the “story” had it at 21%. This same conflict occurs with Sestak/McGinty. Does F&M and Terry Madonna know what the hell is going on, or not? Looks like Bernie is closing the gap on Clinton.

  4. Once again I must take issue with any Keystone poll because they continue to include only land line households, solely, as Terry Madonna once acknowledged to me in an email, because he cannot afford the cost of including a wireless sample. The latest data developed by the CDC finds that about 48% of U.S. households are wireless only and almost 60% are mostly wireless. These households are more likely to be Black or Hispanic, lower income, young, et al versus landline households. You cannot conduct a poll while excluding almost 60% of the telephone universe from the sample.
    Recently some pollsters have taken to including responses from both landline and wireless households. The responses are often radically different. In one NBC poll landline households gave Bernie Sanders a 5% edge over Hillary Clinton while the edge in wireless households was 40%. You’ll note Hillary Clinton maintains a large lead over Sanders in this poll of landline only households.
    F&M does us all a disservice by continuing to use this discredited land line only methodology. Do it right or get out of the polling business.
    (I am inserting this comment in all posts about the F&M poll – JP

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