F&M Poll: Wolf Leads All Challengers, Casey Leads Barletta

In the latest Franklin & Marshall statewide poll, Governor Tom Wolf is leading all three Republican challengers, while Senator Bob Casey leads Congressman Lou Barletta.  It also shows shifting opinions on gun control and natural gas drilling in the state.

According to the poll, Wolf leads Laura Ellsworth 51-22, Paul Mango 49-22, and Scott Wagner 38%-21%.  Wolf performs lowest against Wagner, but Wagner performs below the other two Republicans in the state in a match up against Wolf.  Wagner’s heads-up against Wolf has the most undecideds, 35%, compared to Mango and Ellsworth, 25% each.

Wolf’s leads come partially from his job approval numbers, 43% say he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job, a five point increase over his numbers from September.  Wolf also has the advantage of 46% of voters saying the state in headed in the right direction compared to 40% who say the state is on the wrong track. This is the first time more people said the state is on the right track since 2009.  

Casey holds a 43-25 lead over Barletta in the likely U.S. Senate match up.  The poll did not poll Casey against Barletta’s primary challenger, state Rep. Jim Christiana.  

The poll gave some insights into messaging that will resonate with voters in the state, especially on gun control and climate change.  

72% of voters support creating more laws to regulate gun ownership, 52% strongly, and 20% somewhat favoring.  61% of voters strongly support banning assault-style weapons, while 59% strongly support raising the age to purchase a gun to 21.  A large majority, 86%, strongly support enhancing the state’s background check system.

On climate change, 62% of voters think it is causing problems right now, and 67% of voters thins Pennsylvania should do more to address climate change.  

A slight majority of voters, 51%, disapprove of the way Pennsylvania has handled natural gas development. 

The poll surveyed 423 registered voters in the state from March 19th-26th either online or through phone call, depending on each respondent’s preference in response to a letter sent ahead of the survey.  The margin of error is 6.8%.

21 Responses

  1. Terry Madonna uses polls to create buzz for the candidates he supports. Lets hope we wont have to listen to his pontificating his own agenda for the next seven months. If he took a serious look he would see Wolf has a lot of weaknesses to be exploited and Barletta will cut into Casey all over the state on the immigration issue. Madonna still doesnt get immigration. Even after his “polls” showed Clinton winning PA.

      1. If you all people who believe in the rule of law and are not hypocrites, then yeah

  2. I’m not impressed with Mango, but that idiot Wagner is just a Trump impersonator with a slightly better hairdo.

    1. There is a third candidate: Laura Ellsworth. She’d be the first female governor of PA and seems to value civility.

  3. Wolf and Casey are running in a cycle that looks good for D’s Nationally. They’ll catch a free ride on a blue wave and both probably get back in, despite the fact that they are horrible candidates, lousy public speakers and two of the most empty suits in the history of PA politics.

      1. A can of spam could get elected this year on the democratic ballot based on polling that suggest a big November for Dems.
        With respect to the Wolf and Casey, campaigns, two cans.

  4. Paul Engelkemier-

    “Wolf performs lowest against Wagner, but Wagner performs below the other two Republicans in the state in a match up against Wolf”

    Umm… Wagner getting 21% and the others getting 22% is well within round-off as well as the margin of error. This is an overstatement. The difference is insignificant.

    Wolf effectively has a 2-1 polling advantage, which probably puts him 90% chance of winning.

  5. This is starting to look like the 1998 Tom Ridge vs Ivan Itkin 1998 race that had Ridge win 57% to 31%, especially, if “over produced ads/ideologue” Mango prevails in the primary. Even with Wagner prevailing in the primary it doesn’t look all that hot for the Republicans. They seem out of sinc and out of touch with the changing times this election cycle. Two candidates at the top of the ticket who are not running strong races–Wagner/Mango and Barletta–doesn’t paint a good picture for the R’s this Fall. It just seems the news gets worse and worse for the Republican top candidates this election cycle–they seem flat and uninspired.

  6. Paul Mango clearly needs to run more over-produced TV ads featuring more fake actors in order to catch up. It won’t cost that much, like $60,000 to produce each ad with 40% markup on the talent.

  7. our annual fun from f&m. how were wrong again 2018 version. lets see how President Clinton and Senator McGinty are doing.

      1. Will this man promise to stop taking polls and the kids money when he is wrong again. Any parent who would let their child be taught by this pollster or employer who would hire a student of his needs to strap on the helmet and get in the game.Keep putting his polls all over the USA. Every newspaper keeps running with his story While all of his peers keep laughing well the F&M poll is out we got plenty of room to be WRONG now.

    1. Until the Russkies did the solid for the Trump Crime Family. But to be fair, let’s hope the Democrats learned their lesson and NEVER nominate someone who is carrying the baggage Hillary Clinton was. Are you listening all you Terry McAuliffe supporters.

  • Who Will Be Speaker of the PA House on February 28?

    • Joanna McClinton (68%)
    • Mark Rozzi (27%)
    • A Republican TBD (5%)

    Total Voters: 315

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