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Inside Elections: Fitzpatrick’s Race Shifts From Tilt GOP to Lean GOP

The race in the 1st Congressional District slightly moves in the incumbent’s favor, according to the latest ratings from the analysis at Inside Elections

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R-Bucks) reelection bid against Democratic challenger Christina Finello has shifted from Tilt Republican to Leans Republican, in the latest ratings update on October 1

Nathan Gonzales writes that “despite President Donald Trump’s struggles at the top of the ticket,” that Fitzpatrick has “maintained a significant edge” in the suburban Philadelphia district. He added that Fitzpatrick’s profile “remains strong” while Finello is “still largely unknown” in a district that Sec. Hillary Clinton narrowly carried in 2016. 

However, Gonzales cites recent polling that has shown Trump struggling in the Philadelphia suburbs, which could hurt Fitzpatrick’s reelection chances. 

“Democrats are going to have to decide if they have enough money to go in and try to buy the seat or just hope Biden crushes it at the top of the ballot and drags Finello across the line,” Gonzales writes. “To put it another way, if Biden is indeed up 59-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs (as he was in the recent ABC News/Washington Post poll), Fitzpatrick could still lose.”

Fitzpatrick, who is currently serving his second term in Congress in a district that narrowly went to Sec. Hillary Clinton in 2016, bested Democrat Scott Wallace by just over 2.5 points in 2018. 

Fitzpatrick’s race is the second tightest congressional race in the state, according to Inside Elections. The lone race in the state that is currently rated as closer is Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) reelection bid in the 10th Congressional District, which is placed in the “Tilt Republican” column. 

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball also have the race in PA1 as Leans Republican.

5 Responses

  1. Exactly. Fitzpatrick is self-serving, lacks candor and integrity, and he’s a COWARD. He’s never held an open Town Hall, NEVER. Can’t speak for us because he refuses to speak with us

  2. One of the rare places in the country where there is likely to be a lot of ticket splitting made much easier by the elimination of straight party voting. Fitzpatrick will survive by that change alone. A moderate Republican is a dying species as is moderate Democrat. They are getting harder to find. While the majority of the public are more moderate, their parties are moving away from moderate positions and pushing people like Fitzpatrick out of public service, who are much more pragmatic in their approach to politics.

  3. Its not a question of whether Fitzpatrick wins or loses. It is a matter of by how much? Expect Fitzpatrick to break he 60% threshold which is something not done since Jim Greenwood was the Congressman.
    Fitzpatrick by 21

  4. The Fitzpatrick campaign is pathetic. A fake republican backed by corporate money riding the coattails of his brother who was a far better man than he is. Fitz won’t support trump and constructed a fake image as a moderate. The only person he cares about is himself. A man of no values and no morals. This conservative republican will be writing in someone else

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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