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Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Trump Trails Top Three Dems in PA

A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows that President Donald Trump has some work to do one year out from the 2020 presidential election if he banks on keeping Pennsylvania in the win column again. 

In a series of hypothetical head to head matchups with the three Democratic presidential front runners, Trump trails all three in Pennsylvania. 

Former Vice President Joe Biden polls the best among the top three Democratic presidential hopefuls, besting Trump in a hypothetical head to head matchup by 9 points, 52-43. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren also hold a 5 point lead over Trump in a hypothetical race among registered voters, 50-45. 

While Trump’s approval and favorability ratings are underwater, the numbers for the top three Democrats aren’t exactly high either. 40% approve of Trump’s job performance, while 56% disapprove with the numbers slightly increasing in favorability with 43% viewing Trump favorably and 54% unfavorable. 

The Democrat with the highest favorability rating is Biden, although his rating is also underwater. 43% view Biden favorably, while 45% have an unfavorable view of him. Sanders has a -9 point favorability rating with 41% viewing Sanders favorably, while 50% view him unfavorably. Warren, like Sanders, has a -9 point favorability rating with 38% having a favorable view of the Massachusetts Senator and 47% viewing her unfavorably. 

In the hypothetical head to head matchups with the Democratic frontrunners, the poll also included a breakdown of support from various regions in the state and other data. Trump’s largest deficit comes in Philadelphia in a matchup against Biden with the former Vice President garnerning 89% of the vote, while Trump carries just 6%. Trump also trails the Democratic frontrunners in the Philadelphia suburbs, losing to Biden by 21 points, trailing Sanders by 20, and losing to Warren by 17 points. Trump also trails the top Democrats in Allegheny County, although there’s a notable difference in margins between the Democratic candidates. Trump polls worst against Biden in Allegheny County, losing to him by 21 points, while Trump trails Warren by just 9 points in the county, and loses to Sanders by just 7 points. 

Trump boasts his strongest support in Northeast Pennsylvania where he bests all of the Democratic presidential candidates by at least 50 points. Trump beats Biden, a Scranton native, head to head in Northeast Pennsylvania by 50 points, while he leads Sanders and Warren by 52 points each. The last region in the breakdown, titled “Remainder of State” Trump beats by Biden by 6 points, Sanders by 8 points, and Warren by only 4 points. 

This poll surveying 410 registered voters in Pennsylvania, collected data from November 4 to November 9, has a margin of error of +/-6.0 percent. 

Biden’s lead over Trump is the lone matchup outside of the margin of error. 

The poll doesn’t paint as positive as a picture for Trump in comparison to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll released nearly 2 weeks ago that had the president neck and neck with all three top Democrats and within the margin of error and in some cases, leading Sanders and Warren. 

The full data from the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College can be found here.

5 Responses

  1. And Hillary is still winning in the polls too, LOL!

    Seriously, if the news media didn’t learn in 2016 that polls are highly inaccurate (sometimes on purpose), then they never will.

  2. Whatever is the point of doing a poll so small that it has a 6 percent margin of error. The ambition of regional breakdowns is great, but with a small fraction of the 410 voters being in Northeast PA you can’t get a meaningful result — 50% Trump lead is nutso. Wish we had some reliable data on these important questions. Either do it with enough respondents to make it trustworthy or don’t bother at all. This is just clickbait

  3. Biden can withstand the media onslaught in terms of tons of money spent on ads but Bernie and Warren’s support will crumble with the endless ads talking of socialism. For whatever reason the mere mention of the word socialism freaks some people out and this would hurt Bernie and Warren’s chances.

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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