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PA-Sen: Sabato Shifts Toomey’s Seat to “Toss-Up”

The chaos in the GOP Presidential primary may very well hurt down-ballot Republicans.

That’s the conclusion of Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. In their latest report, the prognosticators have changed the rating of six Senate races and two Governors contests.

One of those six Senate seats is Pat Toomey’s.

Sabato Senate

“The [Democratic] primary dissension would seem to benefit Toomey, who like [Ohio Sen. Rob] Portman is going to be very well-funded, but Toomey faces the same challenges Portman does (and maybe more so) in having to run significantly ahead of his top-of-the-ticket Republican ‘running mate’ in November. Toomey’s reelection bid is now also a Toss-up, instead of Leans Republican, and it has very little to do with the particulars of the Senate race in Pennsylvania. Rather, it’s because of the potential for the GOP nominee to drag down Toomey even against a relatively mediocre opponent.”

The other five Senate race shifts are as follows: Colorado (D) – Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic; Iowa (R) – Safe Republican to Likely Republican; Missouri (R) – Likely Republican to Leans Republican; North Carolina (R) – Likely Republican to Leans Republican; Ohio (R) – Leans Republican to Toss-Up.

According to Sabato’s new map, Democrats are set to pick up at least two seats (Illinois and Wisconsin). This would leave the GOP with 48 and the Democrats with 47. Five seats are now rated as toss-ups. Four are held by Republicans (Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania) and one by Democrats (Nevada). The Florida and Nevada races are open seats and each state was won by Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

This same organization recently shifted a number of states in the Presidential race, including Pennsylvania, towards the Democrats as a result of the possible nomination of Donald Trump.

4 Responses

  1. The shift may be analytically sensible, but in November the quality will show and Pat Toomey will continue his fine record representing Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate.


  2. I think for Pat Toomey will probably survive his reelection by at least a few points and not a lot of points in 2016 but I could be wrong in November.

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