PA-Sen: Suffolk University Poll: McGinty 43 Toomey 36

Katie_McGintyHours before taking the stage for the biggest speech of her life, Katie McGinty got a huge boost from the latest Suffolk University poll.

The poll shows McGinty – who is set to speak at the Democratic National Convention around 5:30 Thursday night – with a 7-point advantage over GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

McGinty leads with female voters by 16 points over the incumbent, 48-32, while Toomey edges Gov. Tom Wolf’s former chief of staff with male voters 40-38, according to the poll.

Toomey wins the white vote 41-36, but minorities overwhelmingly back the Democrat for Senate, 68-14.

Philadelphia is McGinty’s strongest region, beating Toomey by 36 points in the City of Brotherly Love. McGinty also leads in the southwest (46-34) and central PA (41-38). Toomey found his biggest support from western PA (44-38) and the northeast (40-36).

McGinty, who also served as Secretary of the DEP under former Gov. Ed Rendell, leads her opponent across all age groups.

McGinty pulled in 75% of likely Hillary Clinton voters, while Toomey received support from 70% of likely Donald Trump voters.

Toomey has a net-zero favorability rating, with 36% on either side. 23% are still undecided about the first-term senator, and 6% of likely voters still don’t know who he is, according to the poll.

McGinty a +6 favorability rating, but has much work to do in terms of name recognition. 25% are undecided about how they see her, while 23% do not know her name.

Suffolk University polled 500 likely voters in Pennsylvania using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2016 general election. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The poll was conducted between July 25th and July 27th.

19 Responses

  1. Watch Katie McGinty give an impressive speech and get the crowd fired up at a campaign rally with Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine yesterday in Philadelphia:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWsDqHZZmFE

    Katie McGinty is taking the lead and has the momentum according to the latest polls released for this race:

    Suffolk University Poll (July 27th):
    McGinty 43%, Toomey 39%
    McGinty +7

    NBC-Marist Poll (July 10th):
    McGinty 47%, Toomey 44%
    McGinty +3

    Go Katie!! We’re behind you 100%! We’re excited to elect Pennsylvania’s first woman United States Senator!

    She has a true Pennsylvania story that many of us share and can relate to. She is a champion for middle class Pennsylvania families!

  2. All these recent poll make me a happy Dem. May have to change my screen name.

  3. Katie already up in all the polls. Such a gift. A great gift. Believe me … Great …

  4. McGinty was criticized by both national and local political commentators during the speech.

    “Whatever virtues recommended Katie McGinty to the Democratic Party, public speaking is not on the list,” said Vox’s Matthew Yglesias.

    “The Democratic machine must really, really, really, really, really, really hate Joe Sestak,” said FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten.

    “McGinty sounds like she’s speaking to a kindergarten class, not a convention hall,” said National Journal‘s Josh Kraushaar, who added that the speech should raise a “red flag.”

    Alex Roarty, a political reporter at Roll Call covering Pennsylvania, commented that this performance was not out of the ordinary.

    “Katie McGinty isn’t a dynamic public presence,” he said. “Think that’s been clear since the very start of her campaign.”

  5. Did anyone watch Katie speak last night? Did anyone read any of the reviews? She is actually the worst public speaker I have ever heard.

  6. While this would be great news for progressives like me, I have to take this poll with a huge grain of salt. Doesn’t seem remotely accurate.

  7. If I were Tommey I would be ignoring working-class white men with a shaky voter history too. To get back on track, Toomey should steer clear of Trump and start talking about background gun checks once again. He needs moderate suburban women voters in the SE to prevail.

  8. TOOMEY GOT TO CLOSE TO MCCONNELL-TRUMP IS A SIDE ISSUE
    TOOMEY IGNORED HIS BASE
    PAYBACK TO ESTABLISHMENT FOR HELPING TO ELECT CLINTON BY UNDERCUTTING TRUMP
    MCGINTY STANDS FOR SOMETHING -DISAGREE AS ONE MIGHT
    TOOMEY IS AN ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICAN WHO STANDS FOR AN ELITE ENTRENCHED GROUP THAT HAVE PROVEN THEY STAND FOR VERY LITTLE

  9. We better hope it rains in Philly on Election Day !!!!

    This ain’t lookin’ good for us.

  10. If you think Pat Toomey could be the president of Club for Growth without being a “conniving and deceitful politician” then you’re kidding yourself, Ha.

  11. Hard to believe the garden gnome has even 36%. That will go down better em now and November. He has done NOTHING in 6 years.

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