Poll: Obama, Casey Lead PA

The latest survey from YouGov, a research firm that conducts polls online, found Democrats in the lead in both top-ticket races in Pa. President Obama lead Mitt Romney 51 percent to 44. Sen. Bob Casey lead Tom Smith 48 percent to 41.

Those numbers are narrower than a similar poll to firm conducted in September, when Obama lead 52 percent to 43, and Casey lead 46 percent to 38.

Methodology

Though its numbers are within the normal range of recent polling for these races, the firm’s methodology is unusual.

YouGov uses online surveys to derive its numbers – not exactly orthodox. However, studies show that only about 8 percent of voters respond to telephone polling, so that isn’t perfect, either.

The firm surveyed 967 likely voters from Oct. 4-11 at a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent. Here’s the firm’s description of its methodology:

A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll.  The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 85.8 percent”

Weighting:  The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Presidential

Romney performs strongly among independents, 56 percent to 35 for Obama.

Obama leads among women 59 percent to 34; Romney leads men 52 percent to 45.

Generic Congressional Ballot

Perhaps the least useful polling matchup of all is the generic congressional ballot, because it counts a voter in Philadelphia (safe D) or Potter County (safe R) the same as a voter in Bucks (a swing County).

Nonetheless, according to YouGov, a generic Democratic candidate leads a generic Republican candidate 43 percent to 40 percent statewide.

October 17th, 2012 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Senate, Top Stories | 3 Comments

3 thoughts on “Poll: Obama, Casey Lead PA”

  1. Vote for Casey says:

    You can read Bob Casey’s website. I believe you are uninformed.

    Mr Smith does not have a proven plan. Look at the comparison. Mr Smith is all about Mr Smith.

    This country is in deep trouble that is why I am not voting for a person who does not understand how to fix things.

  2. John says:

    Republican Voter,

    Exactly what are some of the bills that Casey has passed for PA? What are some of these bills that Casey has authored and pushed through Congress with bi-partisan support? I’m very interested to know what, if anything, Casey has done for the last 6 years. If his name was Bob Thomas he’d be selling insurance for Geico right now. He’s a bum living off of his father’s name.

  3. Republican Voter says:

    My family is voting for Mitt Romney and Bob Casey. Mitt Romney is a proven businessman. Bob Casey is a wonderful Senator who has passed a lot of bills for PA and he has real concern for the people of PA. We are voting for the real winners. Please read Bob Casey’s site and you will see all of the great accomplishments. He has done a lot for PA. Go to the compare anything Bob Casey VS Tom Smith. Tom Smith has no clear substance. He is not the peoples choice.

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