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Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Perry’s Race Moves From Toss-Up To Leans Dem

Eugene DePasquale now has the slight edge in his challenge against Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) in the race for the 10th Congressional District, according to the final ratings update from the analysts at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

The race has moved from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic in the final ratings update on Nov. 2.  

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman grouped Perry’s race with a few other incumbent Republicans who are facing a “strong Democratic challenger,” while adding that “slippage” for President Donald Trump in these districts is endangering their reelection bids.

Perry, who is serving in his four term in Congress, edged out Democrat George Scott by just over 2.5 points in 2018 in the newly drawn district with boundaries that voted for President Donald Trump by just under 10 points in 2016. Perry’s latest bid was his closest victory since being voted into Congress in 2012 in the old conservative 4th District.

While Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the race in DePasquale’s favor, the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Politico has the race in PA10 listed as a Toss-Up. 

On Election Day 2018, Sabato’s Crystal Ball had Perry’s race listed as “Leans Republican.”

See the final ratings here.

3 Responses

  1. Covid has been botched by Trump and aside from Fox News everyone else got the memo. Spells bad news for down ballot candidates. Notice Trump has ZERO support from traditional Republican political celebs like the Bush family? Trump will take a lot of his fellow R’s down with him.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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