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Trafalgar Poll: Republicans Gain Ground


In the latest poll released by The Trafalgar Group, the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate and governor have closed their deficits considerably as the last days of summer fade away.

GOP senate candidate Mehmet Oz finds himself closer than any other poll conducted since the end of the primary season, trailing Democratic candidate John Fetterman by just 1.8 percent.

In the chase for the governor’s mansion, Republican state senator Doug Mastriano trails Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro by just a pair of percentage points.

Both deficits fall within the poll’s 2.9-point margin of error.

Fetterman leads Oz, 47.7% to 45.9% – the closest that the celebrity doctor has been in a poll since an Emerson College poll (Aug 22-23) found him trailing by four points. The PoliticsPA moving average of 17 polls still shows Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, holding a +9.7 percentage point advantage, while the most recent five polls place him at +9.3%.

Mastriano trails Shapiro by a 47.4% to 45.4% margin – the tightest the race has been since a Cygnal poll in mid-July showing the Franklin County state senator down by 2.9 points. The PoliticsPA moving average of 14 polls still shows Shapiro holding an +8.2 percentage point advantage, while the most recent five polls place him at the same percentage difference.

The Trafalgar Group poll was conducted September 13-15 with 1,078 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 2.9%

44 Responses

  1. Before even discussing climate change one should consult coal productio & usage worldwide & the tell everyone how sacrifices by US would change anything.

  2. Where are the Shapiro ads linking Mastriano with Qanon.? His ads have been lackluster in pointing out what a whack job Mastriano really is.

    1. Your ad-hominem attack lacks intellectual gravitas.
      Nevertheless, it’s OK to be a typical liberal partisan.
      Just don’t expect anyone to be swayed having an IQ way above yours.
      Mastriano is a man of courage and virtue, and believes in the law and the little pesky part of the Constitution that says state legislatures have exclusive authority over election processes.
      You’re welcome to differ on that and wish all you want to change the Constitution so we have a Democrat one-party state but that’s not going to be something we sit for and let happen.
      Mastriano will get in your way.
      Cheers knucklehead!

      1. All Republicants and their voters supporters families friends per actions are fascists racist terrorist mass murderers child rapists sedition treason antiskool antisocial antihuman narcissistic insecure inhumane trash. If you Nazis don’t want to be called Nazis then stop acting as Nazis.

        1. You sound just like Joe Biden, who was supposed to be the great united and was going to reach across party lines to help our country get back to a kinder, more inclusive and tolerant nation. His name calling, just like yours, hasn’t accomplished anything except to divide the country even more.

          1. Let he who doesn’t say Let’s Go Brandon cast the first stone. Reaching across party lines worked with people that are interested and most are not. McConnell just wants power and has flat out said he doesn’t care about bipartisanship for more than a decade. MAGA man doesn’t care either.

        2. The democrats are acting like communists. Republicans want to take care of inflation and close the southern border. Fetterman wants to release criminals serving sentences for murder. Wake up while there is still time

        3. Majority of sex offenders are liberal, stop killings robberies and pedophila and maybe democrats won’t be bottom feeders

        4. Oh my such vitriol from a democrat apologist who favors open door immigration, high gas prices, more taxes on everyone, a non existent police force huge inflation issues a scared and poorly conceived foreign policy and an inability to see Mr Biden as slow weak and inept. Ultimately much of what you weight about you simply do not understand and your rants about Nazis offer a great insight into your macabre and warped thought process which detail in clear fashion how you do not possess a single neuron connects by 2 synapses

    2. Cool. Alinsky’s Rule 5 and right out of the box. How much is Soros/DNC paying now to go on conservative sites and being the rabid leftist you are?

    3. Shapiro is responsible for the crime and robberies happening across the state. Most people know him and fentanyl Fetterman have to go. It’s going to be a Republican wave in November.

    4. where are all the ads with how corrupt shapiro is…you vote for him and you will never have a clean election and the crime and cost of living in PA will not be survivable

  3. This is so typical of the Dems. Wishful thinking won’t help you. Polls have ALWAYS missed the significant vote of the rural areas of our republic. Go back. Check the polls in 2010 and 2016. All Democrats happy talk before and Democrats tears is the aftermath.

    1. The Trafalgar group is the most accurate polling firm based on previous elections ans never an outlier all of your other polls are outliers in the real world. WKe up Bono!!

      1. That has proven itself true over time. Trafalgar is the best at what they do which is not creating psychologically-engineered suppression polls, but polls that most closely reflect public sentiment. Their polls are the only worthwhile ones because they fulfill the honest intent of a poll.

  4. What a joke this Trafalgar poll is. Its so right-winged slanted. This poll called the Gavin Newsome recall vote competitive.
    Really??!! 🙄🙄🙄

    1. Nobody’s accuracy record is perfect but California is a one-party state that ensures the election count comes out the way it wants it to.
      YES, California is the home of election cheating…they perfected it because they set things up to be nearly impossible to detect for one, and secondly the light has never been shined on them yet because they were not one of the 6 states that cheated in November 2020.
      So California has been flying naked under the radar for many years.
      Eventually a whistleblower may come forward and spill the beans.
      Trafalgar’s record in honest elections is unmatched.
      Your example isn’t anywhere near enough to dispute Trafalgar’s record.

      1. Trafalgar asserted that Trump not only would win in 2020 (he lost by seven million votes) but also that Trump would take Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan.

        Trafalgar is the outfit that admits to doctoring its results with a proprietary secret sauce — and has acknowledged that it changed the recipe after being humiliated in 2020. (Cahaly has deleted his final pre-election map from his Twitter account.)

        Trafalgar is paid by conservatives to describe closer contests when donors abandon a faltering Republican campaign. The losing campaigns — Oz and Mastriano, for example — then try to use the Trafalgar report to shake loose some of those clingerverse dollars.

        1. No matter how you spin it Trafalgar polls are 99% accurate. From The NYTIMES to Quinpak they have even said Trafalgar is the best at what it does. And Trump did win in 2020!

    2. In my opinion California is a cheaters paradise…I lived here my whole life. In my neighborhood nearly EVERYBODY hates Gavin Newsome. And yet he won by 63%–that seems weird to me. It’s suspicious actually. But maybe a whole lot of people just don’t vote because they all figure it’s totally useless here since leftist democrats have super-majorities in all areas of the state. But if Trafalgar had polled my neighborhood last year Gavin Newsome would have definitely lost the poll–and it would have been an accurate poll.

    1. Voter who want a future for their children need to vote these extremists democratic radicals out of power!

      1. Things were way better for America when Republicans were in control. Gas prices were lower and we were actually exporting gas and oil. Now we have Biden begging oil from our enemies after he does everything he can to destroy the oil industry in America

  5. And today comes the news that Ding Dong Doug was also registered in New Jersey up until 2021.

    “ Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for Pennsylvania governor, was reportedly registered to vote in New Jersey until last year, opening himself up to the same carpetbagger accusations that have dogged Dr. Mehmet Oz.

    The underdog GOP candidate grew up in the Garden State and voted in Jersey for 28 years until 2010, the New Jersey Globe reported.

    Mastriano, who claims the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump, remained registered and eligible to vote in New Jersey until notifying authorities that he was no longer living there in 2021.”

    SHAME SHAME Ding Dong Doug – GUILTY of being registered to vote in 2 different states. LOCK HIM UP!

  6. 538 reports You Gov has Shapiro up by 11 with a B plus rating for pollster and survey period Sept 6-12. 538 has Shapiro with 91 percent chance of victory. Trafalgar has a model that heavily ways voters in the survey being 35 and above. Abortion ruling throws their model off. Mastriano prancing around in a Confederate uniform and saying goofy stuff and not relating to all media is a loser in Nov. Abortion throws Trafalgar model off which is pivotal to accurate polls.


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