CNBC/Change Research Poll: Biden 48, Trump 44
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania by a few points according to this latest poll.
The latest CNBC/Change Research poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 48-to-44. Biden leads Trump in five out of the six battleground states polled, with the lone state that the president is ahead in is North Carolina by 1 point, 48-to-47. Biden’s largest advantage is in Florida where he leads Trump by 6 points, followed by Michigan with the former VP leading by 5 points, then Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where Biden leads by 4 points. The two closest states polled are Arizona, where Biden leads by 1 point, and North Carolina, where Trump leads by 1 point.
The latest poll is a slight increase for Biden in comparison to the most recent Change Research/CNBC poll conducted in late July that showed Biden leading Trump by 2 points, 48-to-46, in the state. Biden’s largest lead according to this pollster over the past few months was in mid-July when it showed the former VP leading the president by 8 points, 50-to-42, in Pennsylvania.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Change Research favors Democrats by an average of 1.1% and has an overall C- grade.
A slim majority, 51%, approve of Gov. Tom Wolf’s handling of COVID-19, while 49% said they disapprove of the governor’s handling of the coronavirus. Wolf’s 2 point net approval rating on the matter places him in fourth place of the six governors polled for their coronavirus response. Wolf is ahead of Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), who has a -18 net approval rating on the matter, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who has a -16 net approval rating on the issue, but trails Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who both hold an 8 point net approval rating on their handling of the pandemic. Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) leads the way with a 16 point net approval rating on the matter.
Wolf held a 10 point net approval rating on the matter in late July and was tied for the highest with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) of the six governors polled for their coronavirus response.
A majority of the likely voters in the state say that things are getting worse when it comes to the impact of COVID-19, although only one quarter believes that the state is reopening too quickly.
54% said that the impact of the coronavirus is getting worse in the state, while 31% say that things are getting better. Only 25% in Pennsylvania believe that the state is reopening too quickly, making it tied North Carolina as the second lowest of the six states polled. Over half of likely voters in Florida, 55%, said that their state is reopening too quickly.
Pennsylvanians are torn, 44%-to-44%, on whether or not it’s safe to let students return to school.
Over half, 54%, of Pennsylvania likely voters say that they plan to vote in-person on Election Day, while 33% say that they plan to vote by mail, 8% say that they plan to vote in person before Election Day, and 5% who are not sure. Pennsylvania is the lone battleground state of the six polled to show a majority of voters that plan to vote in-person on Election Day.
Additional recent polling backs up this data that a majority of voters in the Keystone State plan to vote in-person for the presidential election. An Emerson College poll released earlier this week showed that 63% of likely voters in the state say that they intend to vote in-person for the presidential election, which is nearly identical to the latest battleground survey from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal that showed that 62% of likely voters in Pennsylvania that said they plan to vote in-person in November.
The results of the presidential race appear to be one of the closest polls in comparison to other recent polling. Emerson’s poll and the University of Wisconsin-Madison survey conducted by YouGov showed Biden leading by 9 points.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.4 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll, surveying 550 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between August 7-9, has a margin of ±4%, according to a spokesperson from Change Research.
The battleground polling can be found here.