Dem Poll: Kelly Leads DiNicola 49-46
One campaign sees it as a sign of momentum. The other sees it as fake and a “parting gift.”
This week, Democratic candidate for the 16th Congressional District, Ron DiNicola’s campaign shared a poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Targeting and Analytics Department showing the challenger trailing within the margin of error to incumbent Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler).
The DCCC Analytics survey of 548 likely voters for the November general election shows Kelly leading DiNicola 49-46, while 5% of voters remain undecided. This poll conducted on Oct 9-10 was done through a “standard blend of live cell phone and automated calls” with a “margin of error of +/- 4.2%.”
As a reminder, all internal polls should be examined with caution.
The GOP friendly district went for President Donald Trump by 20 points in the 2016 election, but only went to Gov. Mitt Romney by slightly less than 5 points over President Barack Obama in 2012.
This poll states that DiNicola boasts a 4 point lead among women polled, 49%-45%, and well-ahead with registered Democrats by 68 points, 82%-13%. The poll also states that DiNicola leads Kelly 57%-37% in his home county of Erie, where the greatest share of registered voters are in the newly drawn district. The poll also shows DiNicola leading 47-44 with voters under 40 and edging out Kelly by one point, 48-47 with voters over 65.
The DiNicola thinks their campaign is heading into a positive direction as election day approaches.
“Clearly, more and more Western Pennsylvanians want a representative in Congress who will fight for their interests as opposed to someone like Congressman Kelly who fights for his own,” DiNicola said in a press release. “We’re encouraged by growing support, but know we have to work around-the-clock through Election Day to earn every single vote.”
The Kelly campaign takes 0 stock in the poll and believes the DCCC has given up on the seat.
“This poll must be the DCCC’s parting gift to our opponent as they ended their television buy in the 16th district,” campaign spokesman Mike Barley said. “The DCCC has spent close to three quarters of a million dollars in television ads attacking Mike Kelly. This week, the DCCC realized that an out of touch, two time congressional campaign loser and California lawyer doesn’t play well in Western Pennsylvania.”
“Their “fake poll” doesn’t match their spending priorities,” Barley said.