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Emily’s List: Fitzpatrick, Kelly, and Perry Land on Initial 2020 On Notice List

Make that two organizations that have their sights set on unseating these same three Pennsylvania Republicans in Congress.

On Friday, Emily’s List debuted their initial 2020 “On Notice” list that is targeting 6 Senators and 43 House Republicans who they dubbed as vulnerable “anti-choice, anti-family incumbents.”

Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks), Mike Kelly (R-Butler), and Scott Perry (R-York) were the three Pennsylvania representatives included on their fist 2020 list.

These same three were also singled out by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on their first 2020 target list.

In 2017, Emily’s List, the PAC that attempts to elect pro-choice Democratic female candidates to office, placed Reps. Ryan Costello (R-Chester), Pat Meehan (R-Delaware), and Lloyd Smucker (R-Lancaster) on their first 2018 “On Notice” list. Smucker, the only candidate of the three to seek re-election, was awarded another term by defeating Democrat Jess King in the newly formed 11th District. Costello and Meehan, who represented different sections of the Philadelphia suburbs, did not run again. All three seats in Philadelphia’s collar counties are now represented by pro-choice Democratic women, Reps. Madeleine Dean (D-Montgomery), Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester), and Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Delaware).

Fitzpatrick, Kelly and Perry all were reelected in November by 5 points or less to serve another term in Congress after defeating three Democratic male candidates.

Kelly had the widest margin of the three, winning by close to 4.5 points over Democrat Ron DiNicola, but is also in the most Trump friendly district with the President carrying the new 16th District by 20 plus points in 2016.

Perry was reelected by defeating Democrat George Scott by just over 2.5 points in a district Trump won in 2016 by just shy of 10 points. Perry is the only of the three that is also being targeted by the DCCC in Facebook ads over the recent government shutdown.

Fitzpatrick is the only one of the bunch to represent a district that Sec. Hillary Clinton won in 2016, albeit by a very slim margin. The Republican incumbent defeated Democrat Scott Wallace by just over 2.5 points.

At the start of the previous session of Congress, Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation consisted of 18 male representatives. Four Democratic pro-choice women were elected to the Pennsylvania delegation in 2018, which was previously all male.

Fitzpatrick, Kelly, and Perry’s office did not immediately respond for comment.

11 Responses

  1. If Reddick, who was backed by EL, had won in the PA-1 primary than the seat would have flipped and Fitzpatrick would no longer be in office. I hope she runs again!

  2. Lol, Emily’s list has targeted Bucks County for years. They lose every time. The organization is a joke.

  3. My guess is that if Fitz switched to Dem he’d be a lifer in that seat or at least through the next redistricting. Don’t know if he is that savy.

  4. Those are the obvious 3 choices. Nothing else would be in play, not even remotely. Kelly only losses if the economy turns bad. Otherwise, it is tough to see him losing with Trump on the ticket. Perry is more interesting. The new map doesn’t help him. Probably a 60% chance he prevails.

    Fitz is vulnerable. Thus, the reason for all of his “moderate” votes recently. Building up the book. The Dems blew this one by nominating the wrong gen candidate when a much better choice was available. Some believe it was due to party switching for the primary but I have seen no solid evidence of that at all. Even in a good economy, Fitz could lose.

    There are no slam dunks left for the D’s. Those have already happened.

    1. Who would they possibly recruit to run against Kelly, I wonder? Pretty slim Democratic bench in PA-16 as it is, and the only woman I can think of is Kathy Dahlkemper running to try and get her seat back (which would be a disaster).

      1. Ryan Bizzarro I think would have the best shot. However, he is moving up the ranks in the state house so doubt he would run.

        Also since Laughlin’s state senate seat is up next year, I imagine there will be a lot of competition on the Democratic side to take that back (should be a much easier get than the congressional district).

        1. Definitely agree about Laughlin’s seat. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Bizzarro go for that. Question then is will Dinicola give it one more go against Kelly.

          1. Maybe. Key is that he would need to do better in the Shenango Valley area – under performing there was key to his defeat. Then again, Mercer and Lawrence Counties have trended Republican recently so might have done all he could. Kelly is very unpopular in Erie though, so still not a slam dunk for him.

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