That’s the conclusion of FiveThirtyEight’s Dave Wasserman. Wasserman, who also writes for the Cook Political Report, believes that Pennsylvania is a state that GOP presumptive nominee Donald Trump could peel away from the Democrats.
“In 2016, Pennsylvania could be the keystone of the Electoral College and the ultimate arbiter of whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,” he writes.
While PA has gone blue in six straight elections, going back to 1992, Wasserman shows that it is trending Republican.
Wasserman sees Trump doing much better in Pennsylvania than newly blue states like Virginia and Colorado (which was the tipping point in 2008 and 2012). This is due to PA’s own unique economic circumstances, demographics and voting laws.
“Don’t get me wrong: Florida and Ohio are still likely to be crucial in any scenario in which Trump wins a majority of Electoral College votes,” Wasserman concludes. “But if Clinton wants to keep him out of the White House, she may need to build a Pennsylvania firewall. Perhaps that’s a good reason Democrats are holding their convention in Philadelphia in 10 weeks.”