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GOP Poll: Biden and Trump Tied in PA

While a number of recent polls show former Vice President Joe Biden holding a several point lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, this GOP super PAC released a poll of its own showing the two tied in the Keystone State. 

Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, conducted an April poll of three battleground states that includes Pennsylvania. Biden and Trump are locked at 46.7% each in the latest poll in Pennsylvania, while Biden holds a lead over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. This latest poll is a 1.7% increase in Biden’s favor in comparison to their previous poll in Pennsylvania, although Trump’s job approval rating in this poll is at 50.5%.

The latest polling also measured voter sentiment on issue preferences as well as a regional breakdown of support between the two candidates. The leading issues in the race for Democrats, Independents, and Republicans include jobs/economy, the coronavirus, and healthcare. 

Their analysis includes a map of 11 designated market areas in the state. Biden boasts strong numbers in the Philadelphia and Erie markets, while Trump holds a lead over the former VP in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon, and Johnstown-Altoona DMA. Notably the two are even in the Pittsburgh market with Trump registering at 47.7% support and Biden at 47%. 

The analysis also breaks down the votes between Biden and Trump into three categories: urban, suburban, and rural. Biden leads Trump by nearly 30 points, 61.9-32, in the urban regions and bests Trump by double digits, 52.6-40.8, in the suburban regions of the state. Trump carries the rural regions by over 25 points, 60.7-33.9, in Pennsylvania. 

The GOP pollster’s analysis described Pennsylvania’s polling as “more or less good news for President Trump.”

This polling from Restoration PAC supervised by pollster Glenn Hodas, surveying 600 likely voters, collected data from April 9-18, has a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence interval. 

Outside of this Republican friendly poll, a slew of other public polls released last week painted a much different picture between the two in Pennsylvania. 

A Fox News poll has Biden leading Trump 50-42, a Public Policy Polling survey has Biden ahead of Trump 51-44, polling from FOX43/Susquehanna Polling and Research shows Biden besting Trump 48-42, and Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Reuters has Biden beating Trump 46-40. All of the margins are also beyond the margin of error.  

The Real Clear Politics average of polls from March 6 to April 21 show Biden leading Trump by 6.7 points in Pennsylvania. 

The full data from Restoration PAC analysis can be found here.

The Pennsylvania specific information can be found here.

7 Responses

  1. Seriously, folks. Joe Biden has always been considered to be Pennsylvania’s third senator and when you factor in the merciless beating the GOP took in southeastern PA the last two years, only the most optimistic of Republicans can believe this poll. When you combine Trump’s broken promises to voters in Western PA, there just isn’t a realistic path to victory in 2020. This ain’t 2016, folks!

  2. I know about this poll. I conducted it myself when I was at a GOP fundraiser. Tight race indeed. I am also the one who called it for Tom Dewey in 1948. I had Dewey by 20 points over Truman.

  3. Politics PA always highlights the pro-GOP polls. Last week when Biden was up 8 they made the headline about Tom Wolf.

  4. Only morons would believe a GOP super PAC? Oh wait, those are Trump voters. Duh.

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