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New polling shows Dems leading across Pa.

New polling supports data from two weeks ago showing a wide lead for Democrats at the top of the ticket in the Commonwealth.

New polling reflects similar data released two weeks ago showing a wide lead for both Democrats.

Similar to results from a Franklin & Marshall poll released earlier this month, a new Suffolk University/York Daily Record poll of likely midterm voters show double-digit leads for both Gov. Tom Wolf and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey.

According to the data, Wolf leads Republican challenger Scott Wagner 49 percent to 36 percent, with Casey polling at 47 percent — 15 points ahead of Congressman Lou Barletta.

“Unlike the 2016 presidential election in Pennsylvania, a squeaker that went to Donald Trump, the U.S. Senate and governor’s races show a turning back to the predominant Democratic Party,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

Officials said updated data continues to show a Democratic voter registration advantage, at 48 percent to 38 percent, with 14 percent of voters unaffiliated, independent or other.

According to the poll, 19 percent of respondents said President Donald Trump is a factor they will consider when casting their votes for U.S. Senate. The economy continues to be the No. 1 issue, at 20 percent.

“Forty-four percent of voters said they want their votes in November to change the direction Trump is leading the nation, while 36 percent said their vote would support the president,” officials said in a press release.

Trump continues to carry a negative approval rating, at 51 percent unfavorable and 41 percent favorable. It seems the administration’s family-separation immigration policy has had an impact, with 59 percent of respondents answering that families should be kept together after they cross the border.

Respondents also favored a semiautomatic weapons ban (61 percent) and raising the age requirement to purchase a firearm from age 18 to 21 (68 percent). Sixty-one percent of respondents support a minimum wage increase to $12 an hour or more.

The statewide survey of 500 likely voters was conducted June 21 to June 25. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

37 Responses

  1. Those who depend upon the DbM to win for Dems/Progessives/Socialist-Communists:

    Take Heed:

    htt ps://ww m/epolls/other/presid ent_trump_job_approval-6179.h tml

    “According to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, on June 8, Trump’s approval rating rounded out to an average of 42 percent, while his disapproval rating averaged 54 percent — a 12 point gap.

    “As of Monday July 2, after two weeks of being pounded by the entire media over border enforcement, Trump’s approval rating has climbed to 44 percent, and his disapproval rating has dropped to 51 percent — a seven point gap.

    “That is a five point improvement during the very ‘scandal’ the media predicted would be remembered as ‘Trump’s Katrina,’ meaning the issue that drove public approval of the president into the dirt forever.

    “Part of that improvement is due to ten point surge in support from — wait for it, wait for it — Hispanic Americans.

    “Imagine being the establishment media today, imagine knowing you threw everything you had at the president; that you coordinated a perfect narrative-storm using recordings of crying children and hoax photographs; that you poured all your hopes, your dreams, and resources into manufacturing that one bulletproof story that would finally bring this guy down.”

  2. wolf is not beatable. casey is. are they running or endorse or members of the the Democrat Social Party? someone needs to ask state dem chair if the party is officaly the DSP.

    1. Both can be defeated via a Trumpster red-tsunami, which would be enhanced were the Dems to flip to socialist/communist extremism.

  3. ht tps://ww m/big-journalism/2018/07/03/media-fail-trumps-approval-rating-improved-during-manufactured-border-outrage/

    Media Fail: Trump’s Approval Rating Improved During Manufactured Border Outrage

    1. Nothing speaks to a person integrity and belief system than citing from a Neo-Nazi, KKK site. Please continue to post and continue to reference the Neo-Nazi site. I show this to Dems as a source of inspiration on why we MUST defeat Steve Bannon’s buddies – Scott Wagner and Lou Barletta. Keep those reminders coming!

      1. Your negative mind-read is faulty for three reasons.

        first, the content is unassailable
        second, a broad-brush ad-hominem rejection impugns your integrity
        third, per Godwin’s Law, you lose

  4. How about yall stop worrying about polling in June? We have five months until the election, political ads aren’t even up on TV yet, oppo has not been used, plans have not been made. I’ve seen polls that have Wags down by 2 and down by 20. Come to the realization that it’s a little early and that there is a lot of work to be done yet.

    David Diano and yall who think that you’re politicos need to seriously go to the doctor and get your meds switched. It’s sad to see something that pathetic.

    One thing we can all agree on tho, Drake’s new Album? Fireeeee.

  5. Just as there are fifty states, there are sixty-seven Pennsylvania counties. Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, along with several others dominated by large cities, do not have the votes to out-vote rural Pennsylvania. And WE VOTE!!

    Greetings from Canyon Country, home of the beautiful Pennsylvania Grand Canyon. We are Republicans (not RINOS). We elected President Trump. And we are energized to vote now, more than ever before, by the un-American Democrat and RINO opposition to him and to our traditional views and values. How does 85% turnout strike you? Deal with it.

    1. Thank you Canyon Country Voter – please keep posting, an appreciative Progressive appreciates your help in uniting and getting out Progressive and Democratic voters. Keep them coming!!!

    2. I have been waiting for November 2018 ever since 2016 as another red wave from the rural areas are going to take casey and wolf out. They must go.

  6. Polling shows Hillary is ahead by at least 10 points and has a 95+% chance of winning the election.

    Oh. Wait. Uh oh!!

    Democrat polls lie in a manner precisely akin to Democrats themselves.

  7. Other interesting polls show:
    Kearney leading McGarrigle by 6points
    Collette leading Greenleaf by 8 points
    Santasaro double digits in bucks county
    Davis over Tomlinson 17 points
    If the republicans believe the blue wave is crashing I guess they didn’t see the next bigger wave.

    1. I think Pollster makes a fair argument and Progressives and Dems ignore history at their peril. Just a note to Pollster – Shapiro and Torcella both won their elections with more votes than Trump.

      Wagner, Barletta and the current Republican party (I was a Charlie Dent supporter) can only win if we are united and fight back hard and get out the vote.
      The candidates on the Republican ticket are the worst of the worst. Scott Wagner, Lou Barletta and PA State candidates such as Martina White and John Rafferty are not only Trump supporters but have voted against pre and post natal care for women, voted to take food away from children, voted to destroy PA schools, voted to not support services for people with Downs Syndrome and other disabilities, voted to deny healthcare to Pennsylvanians and would definitely vote to enact laws that would allow discrimination against people with pre-existing diseases (1 of 2 Pennsylvanians have pre-existing condition and these conditions includes diseases such as drug addiction, depression, juvenile diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol) should the new member of the US Supreme Court and Roberts side with that filth John Sessions. For those DEMS who look at the polls and think this election will be easy, always return to Pollsters comments and remember 2016. Thanks Pollster for your help.

  8. it’s always amusing to watch the media attempt to affect election outcomes, then scream bloody murder when they think another country, say Russia, is doing the same.

    Here’s a fact: Your beloved Governor Wolfe, is refusing to appoint judges state-wide, effectively highjacking the criminal justice system, and the family court systems. Tell me, liberals, how you can justify your stance on family separation with imigrants, while supporting a governor who is causing families to be separated across the state. Tell me, how it makes sense that people are waiting in jail longer across Pa. for bench trials, being denied both due process and speedy trial. Tell me again how great the liberal mindset is. #whatajoke

  9. FNC provides facts/opinions – appropriately labeled.

    The others opine “24/7” and consciously omit key-facts that aren’t “PC.”

    Note ratings for CNN are now lower than those of the Food Network and ask yourself when [if ever] Maddow interviewed a Trumpster.

    The Donald is WINNING, as is the USA.

    1. Pardon me you shill. Reagan had the Fairness Doctrine repealed so that dumbf*cks (like you) ultimately become brainwashed by billionaires and/or/also selfish people who think that they have their economic interests by other selfish people and dumbf*cks (just like you).

  10. It is SO MUCH FUN to watch CNN/MSNBC hosts decompensate, exhibiting behaviors that range from abject rage [Chris Matthews] to withdrawal [Morning Joe].

    Witness the back-and-forth yesterday on CNN @ 6:30 when discussing the appointment of former-FNC exec Shine to the WH as Communications Director; Gloria Borger claimed this “completes the Foxification of 1600 PA Ave.” and Wolf Blitzer decided this is apt because [citing Hannity-Trump interactions], “It’s only fair that the WH be led by a FNC communications guy, when FNC has been led by a WH communications guy!”


    1. FNC should be re-named the Trump News Network or TNN. It is just a propaganda machine for Trump and the Republicans. Joseph Goebbels would be envious. Nothing works better than the “big lie” repeated 24 7 on all broadcast media via the MSM’s “echo chamber.”

  11. Everything is different in Trumpsville for, as an example, registration-data and polling-projections were for naught in ’16.

    The SCOTUS-scramble will energize everyone, as will potential developments on the “Illegals” front.

    If The Donald can indeed make Maxine Waters the “face” of the Dems, a GOP-tsunami could emerge.

      1. Yes sir he may be a quack but he is a happy quack!! Why????? Because getting up every day in the USA is getting better and better. Winning is everything
        and no matter how you spin it that is what is happening

        1. “Every day since 11/8/2016 has been replete with X-mas presents!”

  12. The demographics of this poll can clearly be seen in the second to last paragraph. I don’t know many Republican likely voters in PA who would support a semiautomatic weapons ban. Even with the 60-40 partisan split in this poll, neither candidate is above 50%. Never a good sign for an incumbant running for re-election. With regards to Western PA, at best they will carry Alleghaney County and nowhere near the margins they’ll get in SouthEast PA. They need to hope that a significant number of Trump voters in 2016 sit this one out. Less likely for Casey after he votes against the upcoming SCOTUS nominee.

  13. The statewide registration stats for 2018 as of last week are:
    Dems: 41,854
    GOP: 25,993
    Other: about 25,000

    For 2017 the numbers were (for people still registered, who registered
    2017, and their current registration)
    Dems: 59,415
    GOP: 42,837
    Other: 42,661

    So, the numerical registration gap for this year (at halfway point) is about equal to the gap for all of last year, but as a percentage, it’s even better for the Dems.

    All the trends are pointing Dem statewide. There may be a few pockets of Trumpiness with a surge, but the overall numbers favor Dems. Also, this year, the Dems are targeting about 20 more state house seats than we did the last two cycles.

    1. Based on your terrible predictions from past election years, 2016 most notably, I’d imagine Republicans will do pretty well this year in Pennsylvania.

        1. @ d2:

          You take a page out of Hillary’s blame-game book when you choose one of her dozens of excuses; you provide a simple-declarative-sentence that claims, essentially, that absent Putin’s input, Hillary would have won?

          For a self-ordained “expert,” you are denuded as has been “the emperor sporting no clothing.”

  14. There are too many factors trending Democrat in this race to ignore. It seems every time you turn on the tube there is a new issue in their favor in terms of galvanizing the Dem base and driving out the vote on Nov 6th. Also, let’s talk independents. No way with the new Supreme Court Justice on the line do Dem voters take a pass and sit the election out. I mean there is a wave coming through turn out fueled by a dramatic increase in voters for Dems and independents breaking Dems way unlike we’ve seen in many years. Good news for Tom Wolf and Bob Casey and very, very bad news for Scott Wagner and Lou Barletta. Philly and suburban counties (Bucks and Montgo) will go big for Wolf and Casey so will Western Pa. The Trump antics and Supreme Court appointment will fuel turnout favoring Dems.

    1. I believe Wolf and Casey will win. Wagner and Barletta are horrible candidates. Had Christiana gotten his campaign off the ground earlier and taken out Barletta, he might have given Casey a race. That said, the bigger deal in PA is the US House of Rep seats. Dems need to flip at least 4 in PA and even go for more. If they can slide Dennis Wolff in and perhaps upset Perry, Fitzpatrick or Kelly and Lamb knocking of Rothfus is a must too – then things will be looking waaaaay up.

      1. Ron DiNicola is running the best race a Democrat can possibly run in PA-16. He just might pull this off and beat Mike Kelly.

  15. I would like to believe these numbers are solid, but in the rural parts of the state too many are drinking the ORANGE kool aide big time. The coal miners are still out of work and the blue collar unions just got screwed by the SCOTUS today, but Trump is still king here in Pennsultucky.

    1. Insulting voters rather than talking about the TRUE issues that keep them up at night is not a good strategy. Many Trump supporters voted for Bernie Sanders. Fear and isolation are bad bed fellows. We won’t get 100% of Trump voters, maybe we get 5% or even 1% but when we listen, speak and act with sincerity and respect – Democratic values will always Trump hate and fear. I have been speaking to voters in rural areas over 7 years now. They and their children live in distress – a mother whose teenage daughter was raped and suffered 2 mental break downs, a husband whose wife suffers a chronic disease and drug prices are through the roof, stories of PTSD, drug addiction and suicide, a woman who spoke to me in fear about the high cost of drug prices – her husband was watching her while she spoke, shaking his head NO, another father whose daughter has intellectual disabilities and relies on Medicaid and SSI, jobs that are scare and wages are low, transportation options that are very limited if existent at all. The folks in so called Pennsultucky are like all of us – they are proud, honorable people – Trump at least spoke to them. The PA DEM party, up until this election, didn’t even have Democrats run in races. The PA DEM leadership was too lazy and frankly lived in its own bubble which has now burst. Rather than insult people, get out and join a Democratic campaign in the a rural area: shake hands, ask questions, look people in the eye when they are speaking, be respectful. Some will tell you to keep moving, some will tell you to leave them alone and every so often, a person will come out who will tell you a story that will stun you and make you remember why you called yourself a Democrat, a Progressive – a fighter for the poor, the weak, the sick and injustice.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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