Oz, Mastriano Head Trafalgar GOP Poll

Another poll of likely Republican voters shows Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in the lead in the quest for the GOP nominations for U.S. Senate and Governor.

The Trafalgar Group released its April Pennsylvania GOP Primary Statewide Survey last Friday. Trafalgar polled 1,074 respondents from April 11-13 and the poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.99%.

Oz, the celebrity TV show host and heart surgeon, pulled in 22.7 percent of the responses for a three-point edge over Dave McCormick (19.7%), the former CEO of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates. Conservative commentator Kathy Barnette was third at 18.4 percent.

Former U.S. Ambassador Carla Sands was fourth at 11.2 percent, while Montgomery County real estate developer Jeff Bartos (7.7%), Philadelphia lawyer George Bochetto (2.5%) and Montgomery County commissioner Sean Gale (0.8%) trailed.

Barnette made the biggest leap since the February poll, gaining 9.5 points, while McCormick picked up 3.8 points to close his deficit against Oz which was 11.5 points.

Oz (4.7) and Sands (3.6) suffered the biggest declines over the last two months.

It is important to note that the undecideds will determine the outcome of this race, as 17 percent of respondents indicated as such.

Mastriano, the state senator from Franklin County, has a three-point advantage over former Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta, 21.9 to 18.8 percent. Bill McSwain comes in third at 17.4%, while Delaware County businessman Dave White also hit double figures at 11.4%

Melissa Hart (3.5%), Jake Corman (3.0%), Nche Zama (1.9%), Joe Gale (1.6%) and Charlie Gerow (1.2%) failed to hit the five percent threshold.

Mastriano, who sat in the No. 2 position in the February poll, picked up two points, while Barletta, the previous leader, dropped 5.3 points.

McSwain made the largest move, picking up 13 points. White was not listed as an option in the previous poll.

Similarly to the Senate race, undecideds still make up a large segment of the GOP likely voters at 19.4 percent.

Trafalgar has an A- rating according to the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings.

8 Responses

  1. A lot of undecided voters in these polls. All about getting people to vote either by mail or in person. Best ground game will win in both races.

  2. Mastriano stays at or near his ceiling, so he benefits frm the others splitting the vote.

  3. Trump effect on McSwain numbers should be revealing. Clearly, the poll was before the Trump letter denouncing McSwain.

    1. I agree. McSwain should see about a 10 point jump now that real Republican voters know where the orange idiot stands. McSwain train is rolling to a victory in May.

      1. The poll was the 11th through the 13th and Trump’s comments were on the 12th so some of that effect may already be captured here.

      2. THe so called “Orange Idiot” gave us border security, higher wages, lowest unemployment for all especially for minorities, $12,300/yr Standard Deduction on Fed taxes, a revamp NAFTA Agreement to benefit America, got us out of the sham Paris Climate Acord; peace in the Middle East: lowest gas prices. The list of benefits go on. Doesn’t sound lime an Idiot to me. Sounds like an honest,hardworking President who loves his country.

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