PA-Sen: Quinnipiac Poll: Toomey 45% McGinty 44%

McGinty-ToomeyThe Senate contest between Pat Toomey and Katie McGinty is essentially tied.

That’s the finding of the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which shows the two candidates within the margin of error.

Incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Toomey garnered 45% while Democratic nominee Katie McGinty received 44%. Last month, Toomey’s lead was nine points.

This is particularly bad news for Toomey, not just because of the close margin and negative trend but also the fact that this survey has no discernible Democratic bias. In fact, it could be argued it leans the other way as Trump was just a point behind Clinton in the presidential matchup and Governor Wolf’s approval rating was terrible.

Much as in the presidential race, there is a gigantic gender gap in the Senate contest.

For example, Toomey leads among men 53% to 46% while McGinty has a 51% to 38% advantage with women.

There’s also a sharp racial divide. Toomey is ahead with white voters (51/40) while McGinty wins non-whites (65/18). Even among white respondents, though, there is a gender gap. Toomey has a sizable advantage with white men (58/33) whereas McGinty edges out among white women (47/45).

The Democratic nominee is ahead with 18-34 year olds while the incumbent takes all other age groups.

Interestingly, McGinty actually leads by a point among independents, 41-40. She is held back a bit though because her margin among Democrats, 82-11, isn’t as strong as Toomey’s with Republicans, 86-5. This could be a lingering effect from a bruising primary.


A bright spot for Senator Toomey is his favorability split. 42% of respondents have a positive opinion of him, compared to 27% who have a negative one, while 30% haven’t heard enough. At a time when incumbents and the “establishment” is so vilified, those are impressive numbers.

McGinty meanwhile has a good 30% to 16% split. 53% of Pennsylvanians, however, haven’t heard enough about her. This suggests that the Toomey campaign will spend ample resources painting the Democrat in a negative light.

In a similar vein, Toomey recorded a 49% approval rating against a 34% disapproval rating. This is welcome news for the GOP as the Dems have to convince voters to throw out an official who they think is doing a good job.

Garland Nomination

Luckily for the Democrats, though, there is a big national issue in which Pennsylvanians do not agree with Sen. Toomey.

By a 52% to 29% margin, voters approve of the President’s nomination of Merrick Garland to the vacant seat on the Supreme Court. Additionally, by a 58% to 37% margin, respondents want Garland’s nomination considered by the Senate.

After GOP leaders made it clear they didn’t want the President to appoint a Justice that would swing the balance of the Court, Toomey embraced that position and has stuck by it.

Not coincidentally, Republicans are the only group that supports his position.

Furthermore, 30% say Toomey’s position makes them less likely to vote for him against 18% who say it makes them more likely to vote for him. 51% replied that it made no difference.

This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from April 27th to May 8th. They contacted 1,077 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3%.

23 Responses

  1. John-

    Exactly. At this point, the highest elected office Sestak could possibly win is a seat on the Delaware County Council. There hasn’t been a Dem on the 5-member council for about 35 years (since the GOP removed the guarantee of minority party representation, that is common elsewhere).

    This would be an ego fest for Sestak, if he could crow about being the only Dem to win a seat in decades.

    Now, the tricky thing is that next time (2017), only two seats are up for grabs, and it isn’t 3 seats until 2019. It’s easier with three, since you only have to beat the worst Republican out of the three.

    Joe won’t have anything to do after his defeat tour. I doubt those lucrative lobby jobs he pretended to pass up are worth much for a guy who is so unpopular. Though, WalMart might have an opening in their employee abuse division.

  2. Sestak on his Defeat Tour is trying to explain how the Democratic Party screwed him. When it gets down to fact checks. Sestak campaigned for seven years for this Senate Seat by probably the craziest campaign Pennsylvania has witnessed in a long time.. Sestak’s Napoleon personality made him think he was so smart he didn’t need a traditional campaign. Sestak needs to finally understand he is not going to be elected a US Senator. Sestak needs to go home to Virginia and get on with his life. This defeat tour makes me afraid he is lookin at another office run. I for one hope Sestak is not going to continue to campaign. Sestak needs to take a walk across Virginia and pass out blankets and food from the steps of the Virginia State Capitol steps. I believe Sestak’s main purpose is to do damage to the McGinty Campaign. Add bad loser to Sestak’s resume.

  3. Hahaha aka Brett Cott arrested and prosecuted by Frank Fina. Cries at sentencing while Fina laughs, gets long term sentence Cott stole taxpayers money mostly from seniors and never paid it back. Cott was also to be a woman to a block director for protection. Cott would service this man and service any other men he was told to do. He even was made to walk on all fours and bark like a dog. Fabulous.

  4. Hey Unsanctioned R(etard) aka SpongeRETARD …. This story is about you. You gonna stay away from pet stores when you are released?

    NY DAILY NEWS — A deranged man who enjoys dressing up as a dog was arrested early this month for having sex with a cat on several occasions, authorities said.

    Ryan Havens Tannenholz, a self-identified “furry,” or someone who wears anthropomorphic animal fur suits, was charged with six felony counts of crimes against nature and one misdemeanor count of cruelty to an animal.

    Police say the Boise man, 28, sexually abused the cat multiple times between January 2012 and January 2013. After an extensive investigation, police secured an arrest warrant July 31 and arrested him the following day.

    “It just means that at this point was the time when they had probable cause to do the arrest,” the Deputy Prosecutor reported.

    Tannenholz portrays himself as a black and white husky he calls SpongeBob, a blue fox he calls Unsanctioned R or an unnamed purple canine, according to the furry community news magazine “Flayrah.”

    He could face up to five years in prison for each of the felony counts and up to six months and a fine for the misdemeanor.

    Tannenholz’s bond was set at $250,000, and his preliminary hearing is set for Friday.

  5. Unsanctioned R2 says:
    May 12, 2016 at 3:34 pm
    Unsanctioned R2 says:
    May 12, 2016 at 9:36 am
    Diano with regards to your many posts under different screen names calling the mentally challenged including children “retards” I noticed what you wrote about having a IP address and the fact that you reported it to a Government Agency. Clearly, you have no information that would tie this person to your frivolous allegation. Since this person has been a champion of the rights of mentally handicapped children and you have spent your time ridiculing them in many ways under many names I thought it only right to explore a complaint against you with the EEOC. Here’s the applicable section.
    Title I of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA)
    This law makes it illegal to discriminate against a qualified person with a disability in the private sector and in state and local governments. The law also makes it illegal to retaliate against a person because the person complained about discrimination, filed a charge of discrimination, or participated in an employment discrimination investigation or lawsuit. The law also requires that employers reasonably accommodate the known physical or mental limitations of an otherwise qualified individual with a disability who is an applicant or employee, unless doing so would impose an undue hardship on the operation of the employer’s business.
    You retaliated by your complaint against a person who complained about discrimination. Employment is not an issue in this section just the statement is enough.
    Diano that’s you. Remember all those R words statements made by you. They were captured along with a program that captures IP addresses (which come back to you)
    You be well Dicki. Oh this whole thing came from one of those meetings you claim we never had.Maybe we’ll read about you soon.

  6. As a Republican, I will be voting for Mcginty in the General Election. I have no respect for the incumbent. And he refuses to DO HIS JOB.

  7. Pepper-

    Sestak was a pro-fracker. He advocated that the US be “Europe’s gas station”. He anti-fracking talk during the campaign was a complete smokescreen (like from an oil fire).

    Joe’s geo-political-military view of the world is based on the US having fossil fuels as an asset/resource to influence other nations (and be freer of OPEC influence).

    McGinty was backed by the Environmental Defense Fund and endorsed by the PA Conservationists. Her record is certainly a mixed bag, with some good and bad. But, don’t think for a minute that Sestak was any better.

    If it helps, think about what Sestak pulled in 2010 to ruin that seat. He was asked to run, and turned it down. The party then makes a coup getting Specter and his $10 million cash-on-hand. Sestak then screws up the whole deal, gives up his congressional seat, and blows $4.5 million raised to hold the 7th district. This forces the party to run Bryan Lentz who had to scrape together $2 million from scratch to defend the seat. Sestak blew that Senate race, after he won the primary, by refusing to work on a coordinate campaign, sinking his own ship.

    Sestak hurt himself and the party. He was not getting rewarded for that, especially for his past six years of bad-mouthing the party and (lying) blaming them for his defeat. The party was right to seek another candidate. Even the Clinton’s didn’t come to Sestak’s aid this time.

    McGinty pairs better with Hillary at the top of the ticket.

    Joe’s still running around the state on his defeat tour. I gave the lead about selling his house to a real estate agent who used to be a political operative in Delco. He said he wouldn’t want to work with Sestak as his realtor.

  8. Hey HaHaHa aka Brett aka Jailbird are you gonna pay back all the money you stole from the seniors.

    Unsanctioned R2 says:
    May 11, 2016 at 4:18 pm
    Hey HaAHA aka Brett look you made the news when Fina arrested and convicted you. It’s nice to know that public sources still have this information. You gonna pay back any of the money you stole.
    Brett Cott
    HARRISBURG –Bonusgate defendent Brett Cott received a sentence of 21 to 60 months on three charges this morning.
    He also received three fines totaling $11,000 and was told to make restitution to the state of $50,000. The sentence was imposed by Dauphin County Judge Richard Lewis, who rejected Mr. Cott’s defense attorny’s plea for probation. Mr. Cott was found guilty on three charges: conflict of interest, theft of services, and conspiracy.
    The office of state Attorney General Tom Corbett had argued for a stiff sentence, claiming Mr. Cott had seriously misused taxpayer dollars in running as many as 20 political campaigns in Western Pennsylvania from 2004 to 2006.
    Mr. Cott’s attorney, Bryan Walk, had claimed that the prosecution was political and said that Mr. Cott was aqcuitted on 39 of 42 charges brought against him. However Judge Lewis said that Mr. Cott’s offenses were serious and deserved time in state prison.
    Read the sentencing memo for Brett Cott.
    The judge said Mr. Cott spent most of his time that was paid for on taxpayer dollars “orchestrating and mastermining political activity.” The judge said “public money was used like monopoly money to run campaigns. Some potential candidates were scared off by this taxpayer funded juggernaut. The public was also victimized.”
    He said probation was not an option because that “would demean the seriousness of the crimes.”
    Deputy Attorney General Patrick Blessington said that Mr. Cott was paid salary of $223,000 plus bonuses of over $39,000 from 2004 to 2006 for basically running political campaigns. Mr. Cott is the first of the Bonusgate defendents to be sentenced.
    Reactions to the sentence from prosecutors and the defense differed markedly.
    The stiff sentence “sends a loud and clear message that this kind of activity [illegal use of taxpayers funds for political campaigns] will not be tolerated, and people will pay for their crimes,” said Deputy Attorney General E. Marc Costanzo.
    In a brief submitted to the judge, the state contended that Mr. Cott’s “demeanor” wasn’t appropriate, meaning he hadn’t shown “contrition or remorse” for his illegal actions. He said Mr. Cott’s ongoing defiant attitude and lack of remorse were “appropriate legal factors” to be considered during the sentencing.
    Lawyer Walk, however, said he was shocked and “extremely disappointed” by the severity of the sentence, which could keep Mr. Cott in state prison for up to five years.
    “There are drug dealers and violent offenders who don’t get that much time,” he said. “We didn’t expect this.”
    He said that since Mr. Cott had no previous arrests or convictions, and since the jury had found him not guilty on 39 of the 42 charges that the state brought against him, he should have gotten probation and no jail time.
    Mr. Walk said the judge’s sentencing decision seemed to have been already prepared, even before this morning’s hearing, where the defense attorney spent almost an hour saying what a hard worker and good person Mr. Cott is.
    Mr. Walk said that if two of the original Bonusgate defendants, former House Democratic staffers Mike Manzo and Jeff Foreman — who made a deal to cooperate with the state and testified against Mr. Cott, “don’t get sentences that are more than Mr. Cott’s, then justice is dead.”

  9. I’m not sure how anyone can call himself a Democrat and vote for the likes of Pat Toomey. I knew a couple who voted for Toomey because they couldn’t stand the way Sestak devalued campaign workers and paid them poverty wages. I can appreciate not wanting to vote for Sestak, but actually casting a ballot for one of the most conservative members of Congress who ran Club for Growth? It’s outrageous.

  10. Good plan Pepper. You lose so you take your ball and go home. Thank god the morons who comment here are not a fair representation of the party because more stupid people like you would bring the Trump gustapo to our doors come 2017.

  11. As a Democrat, I’m probably going to have to vote for Toomey. I simply can’t reward the party for what they pulled to get this empty suit fracker elected.

  12. I for one am a big fan of David Diano.

    David, I hope you keep us updated on Sestak’s PA house that he will never set foot in again.

  13. Can we please hear more from David about his Joe Sestak Revenge Porn fantasies? It’s getting very tiring to hear about Dave’s Sestak fetish in every comment.

  14. That Papale ad is awful. So fake. So condescending. Chamber of Commerce a bunch of greedy hacks.

    BTW – Anyone see One-Term-Toomey on the Cinemax show “Banshee”? He was playing a journalist and just standing there with a microphone in his hand and a stupid look on his face.

  15. This would be why the Chamber of Commerce is running that stupid Vince Papale ad so much.

  16. Hater and All PoliticsPA-

    Sestak’s fans are still all over FB talking about how McGinty can’t be Toomey, and how holy Joe was the only one, and how “all is lost”.

    So, now we have a poll that shows the race essentially dead even.

    Toomey’s people were VERY upset that Joe lost (almost as much as Joe was).

    I wonder what the Sestak lemmings will say if McGinty actually beats Toomey (since they are all rooting for Toomey)?

  17. My husband is now posting comments as “We hate Diano.” He seems to be obsessed with this David Diano. And with HAHA too. And he has sick, wet prison sex fantasies about someone named Brett.

    I apologize for his behavior here. He is a sick person.

  18. David, the rest of us PoliticsPA commenters got together, and we unanimously think that you need to seek psychological help. Your obsession with Joe Sestak, even after he lost, is… sad and disturbing. Please see a doctor.

  19. Toomey will get crushed. He is pathetic. And conservatives don’t even like him.

  20. Is it really “good news” that 30% of the electorate have not heard enough from their incumbent over 5 years to know if they would support him? He has done nothing to come to public attention favorably. Toomey is a LOSER.

Comments are closed.

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