What a difference a day makes.
According to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, Republican Senator Pat Toomey leads his Democratic opponent Katie McGinty 49% to 39%.
So how did McGinty go from her best polling performance to possibly her worst? Well, for that answer we have to dig into the crosstabs.
Demographics
McGinty leads among just two groups in this survey, Democrats (79/9) and non-whites (54/23).
18 to 34 year-olds were tied between the two candidates (40/40).
Meanwhile, Toomey is ahead among: Republicans (86/6), white men (59/31), those without a college degree (56/32), independents (55/30), 50 to 64 year-olds (55/33), whites (55/35), those with a college degree (54/40), men (53/35), white women (52/38), 35 to 49 year-olds (50/42), 65 year-olds and older (49/42) and women (45/42).
There is still a fifteen point gender gap but it must be massively disappointing to the McGinty camp that Sen. Toomey leads among women.
Approval/Favorables
Sen. Toomey’s approval rating is actually lower than his level of support in a head-to-head matchup with McGinty. 47% approve of the job he is doing against 39% who disapprove. His numbers are only underwater with Democrats, non-whites and 18 to 34 year-olds.
At the same time, Toomey recorded a 44% favorable rating as well as a 34% unfavorable rating. McGinty has an even 29/29 favorable/unfavorable split with 41% saying they haven’t heard enough about her.
This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from June 30th to July 11th. They contacted 982 registered voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.
Analysis
“Republicans, at least in Pennsylvania, can exhale. Sen. Pat Toomey has a comfortable lead in his bid to keep this GOP Senate seat safe. A welcome development in the turbulent and polarizing landscape where Donald Trump roams,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Altogether, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Quinnipiac’s results were so different from NBC’s. After all, their presidential surveys vary from showing Trump up two to Clinton up nine.
We’ve touched on the issues some have with Quinnipiac’s survey but in reality these results are almost exactly the same as last month’s.
Ultimately, this contest will be decided by whether the demographics of voters on election day looks more like Quinnipiac’s sample or NBC’s.
Loading ...
31 Responses
My work here is done.
HaHaHa aka other female names he falsely posts under aka BRETT COTT is a convicted felon and theif. He posts under different female names and accuses other’s he dosent know of being homosexual. Kinda strange from a guy who spent all that time in prison with other men. COTT is OWNED just like in jail.
I am going to call your Parole Officer if you do not stop it with this Brett fellow. It’s one thing for you to blow truck drivers at the rest-stop, but you promised me you would never have another boyfriend.
You are NOT welcome at the trailer tonight. Go sleep with “Brett” your boyfriend.
Mrs. Unsanctioned aka HaHHA aka Brett COTT you are so so stupid. That’s why you got caught and went to jail. Why do keep posting as a woman. Do you enjoy dressing up in women’s clothes? Did you have you’re own wardrobe in jail? Plus you shouldn’t post about people’s wives, that’s not To smarT.
My husband can only get a HaHaHard-on. Sometimes a David-Boner too. I am leaving him.
Thank goodness the NBC poll came out to ramp up Toomey’s fundraising.
Aaron, is HaHaHardon hiding in Philky since I owned him again?
Sestak is home in Virginia. Writing letters to people in all 67 counties to support HIS candidate for his old congressional seat. The answer is we have our own congressional candidates to support financially. Gloves off this is the arrogance of Sestak. It is why he was clobbered in the primary and will never be a relevant candidate again. While John Fetterman actively endorses and supports Clinton and McGinty Sestak still rides his crazy train not helping the Democratic Candidates.. Democrats out number Republicans in Pa. Only when we are divided and don’t turn out the vote we lose. Winning the White House and the majority of the Senate is way more important then some loyalty to one arrogant little man. Get over it. Support Clinton and McGinty. If not I wish you a good ride on the same crazy train that will elect Trump and Toomey.
Oh, holy moly. Did you guys bother to look at how this poll was conducted? Registered voters and not likely. In PA Dems have a huge registration edge, but only 35% of the respondents were Democrats and 25% were Independents? Oh . . . and 80% of the respondents were white.
Aaron or HaHaHa or DD you could be any of these. I, however do not post as Bucks County Driver. You all smell conspiracy when someone agrees with your opponent. Then you resort to personal offensive statement. That’s why everyone just laughs at you. Now just for the record what was the emasculating statement . Was it Brett COTT went to jail? Was it that Fina put him there? Maybe, it was the part that Brett COTT got sent to a prison where there was lots of homosexual activity. Better yet go get a job and pay off your fines.
emasculated as “republican voter,” the troll now posts as “Bucks County Driver”
Pathetic.
Aaron and Thomas….Excellent post.
DD Don’t bother us with this troll crap . If you don’t like it you don’t have to read it especially since it’s not directed at you. Make serious political comments and tell your friend too and maybe some of this nonsense will stop. Calling someone a homosexual who you don’t know should not be tolerated. As Thomas says if sounds like to me what the guy saying must be right if Ha dosent deny it.
Aaron, I think he’s saying the reason nobody sues him is because they’d just be proving him right maybe?
My husband, #OneTermToomey, is a limp-dicked, do-nothing garden-gnome ayyy-hole.
Hire a lawyer, “DD”
Don’t bother us with your am-I-in-trouble troll questions.
My daughter, #SHADYKATIE, is a liar.
As an outsider, when someone repeatedly uses another’s real name in a disparaging way over and over and that other person doesn’t try and sue, you really gotta wonder. Someone once told me that the truth is a guaranteed defense against libel. Is that true?
Mrs. Republican Voter aka HaHaHa….. Hey BRET COTT we all know it’s you post under your real name. Did you need help when you stole all that money from the PA Seniors. Remember when Fina prosecuted you and you pissed your pants when you got found guilty. And sent to prison. Brett I bet your family was real proud when you got sent off to jail. BRETT, do you really think it’s wise to label someone a latent homosexual when you were in jail with all those men. Are those prison stories true?
Did you pay taxes on the money you stole?
Typical Democrat.
“Unsanctioned R” is another name my husband uses here. He is a sick, sick person. And a latent homosexual.
A McGinty win wouod result in a tear in the karma-space continuum. She just can’t win for the sake of humanity. Such an awful, lying person should not be rewarded with a Senate seat nor should the party be rewarded for sherpaing such a terribly weak candidate to the top of the primary.
PS. Has anyone seen Joe?
Ironic @3:49
HaHaHardon messed it up. The lie McGinty repeated over and over was, “…the first person in my family to go to college.”
She got caught lying to everybody with this bold-faced Clintonian falsehood. Are there no honest women Democrats can choose from?
This is where my husband pretends to be a million other people. He needs help.
Yes. I am inspired by McGinty. Daughter of a Philky cop. First female in her family to graduate from College. Super smart.
And then there is the most important thing: she is not a pathetic, do-nothing garden-gnome like Toomey.
Toomey and Trump — both soon to be defeated by women.
Corporate Kate is such a good candidate! Fast Eddie can really pick ’em, can’t he? She loses Independents 55 to 30!! lolol… Corrupt Hillary is going to drag her down too. My old party is really self-destructing this year – picking the most OBNOXIOUS candidate in race after race. I’ll be glad to see it die!
The Democrats continue to frustrate me, with the party machine choosing nominees apparently because ‘it’s their turn’; this leads to uninspiring foot soldiers rather than dynamic leaders. McGinty is another one; the only reason I support her is because I want Toomey and the GOP to lose.
Can anyone here honestly say they are excited about McGinty or that she inspires them? I follow politics closely and even I’m not sure what she stands for. Where have you gone, Joe Sestak?
The poll in the crosstabs shows 15% of Republicans approving of Kathleen Kane’s performance. …what?
They can root all they want. The garden gnome is gonna lose. #OneTermToomey
Jesus, that Tim Malloy dude is practically rooting for Toomey in his statement
Has #ShadyKatie conceded yet?
It’s pretty early and most people aren’t paying attention to this race, with all the focus on the Presidential.