PoliticsPA: 2020 General Election Results Thursday Playbook

There is *some* clarity with races in the commonwealth. 

Since yesterday’s Playbook, 3 races have been called for Congress, and 17 candidates for closely watched races in the state legislature have declared victory, as we still await final results for the three statewide matchups. 

Ballots from southeast PA and Allegheny County that were tabulated on Wednesday have tightened the races for president and other races. 

Here’s an update of where we stand as of Thursday morning in PA. 

 

President. Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden by just under 3 points, with 89% estimated to be in. There are 44 counties with 95%+ mail and in-person ballots that have been counted. They include 15 of Trump’s 20 best counties in 2016. As of now, Trump’s net vote margin increased by 17,452 above his 2016 vote margin. While Biden has netted 24,347 votes above Sec. Hillary Clinton in just Montgomery County in comparison to 2016. (H/T Keegan Gibson).

 

Statewide. For Attorney General, Josh Shapiro is running nearly 1 point ahead of Biden and now leads Heather Heidelbaugh. For Auditor General, Nina Ahmad is running about 3.5 points behind Biden. For Treasurer, Joe Torsella is running about 2 points behind Biden. 

 

Congressional Races 

It looks like no incumbent member of Congress in PA will lose this cycle. 

PA1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) has defeated Democratic challenger Christina Finello. The AP called the race for Fitzpatrick on Wednesday afternoon. As of Thursday morning, Fitzpatrick leads by 17 points with 85% of estimated votes reported.

PA6: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester) has defeated GOP challenger John Emmons. The AP called the race for Houlahan on Wednesday afternoon. As of Thursday morning, Houlahan leads by just under 12 points with 96% of estimated votes reported. 

PA7: Rep. Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) trails GOP challenger Lisa Scheller by 4,757 votes (or 1.4 points) with 84% in. Wild closed the gap significantly on Wednesday as mail-in ballots continue to be counted. 

PA8: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) leads GOP challenger Jim Bognet by just over 2 points with 90% of estimated votes reported. Cartwright entered Wednesday trailing Bognet, but gained the lead on Wednesday evening

PA10: Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) leads Democratic challenger Eugene DePasquale by just under 10 points (just under 35,000 votes) with 88% of estimated votes reported. DePasquale closed the gap a bit on Wednesday as more mail-in ballots were tabulated, but still trails by nearly double digits with just 12% of votes to be counted. 

PA16: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) has defeated Democratic challenger Kristy Gnibus. The AP called the race for Kelly on Wednesday morning. As of Thursday morning, Kelly leads by 25 points with 82% of estimated votes reported. 

PA17: Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) declared victory over GOP challenger Sean Parnell late on Wednesday night. As of Thursday morning, Lamb leads by 1 point (4,327 votes) with 92% of estimated votes reported and his lead looks to expand as more mail ballots are counted. 

 

State Senate and House

So far Republicans (HD-143) and Democrats (HD-152) have each successfully flipped one House seat, while Republicans have flipped one Senate seat (SD-37). A number of other races have competitive races. Notably, House Minority Leader Frank Dermody (D-Allegheny) still trails by 4 points. 

While results are not final in a number of districts, here’s an update of where things stand in competitive House and Senate races in PA. If we missed a competitive race where most results are in, and at least some writing is on the wall, please send me a note at John@PoliticsPA.com).

 

State Senate 

SD-9: Democrat John Kane holds a slim lead (51%-to-49%) over Sen. Tom Killion (R-Delaware), according to the New York Times. This race is too close to call. 

SD-11: Sen. Judy Schwank (D-Berks) leads GOP challenger Annette Baker by 17 points (59%-to-42%), according to the New York Times. 

SD-13: Sen. Scott Martin (R-Lancaster) defeated Democratic challenger Janet Diaz for the seat in Lancaster County. As of Thursday morning, Martin leads by 22 points. 

SD-15: Sen. John DiSanto (R-Dauphin) holds a slim lead over Democratic challenger George Scott, according to PennLive. As of Thursday morning, DiSanto leads by 4 points, according to the New York Times.

SD-19: Democrat Carolyn Comitta leads Republican Kevin Runey for the seat in the Philadelphia suburbs. As of Thursday morning, Comitta leads by 14 points, according to the New York Times. 

SD-31: Sen. Mike Regan (R-York) has defeated Democratic challenger Shanna Danielson. As of Thursday morning, Regan leads by 30 points, according to the New York Times. 

SD-37: Republican Devlin Robinson defeated state Sen. Pam Iovino (D-Allegheny) for the seat in western PA. As of Thursday morning, Robinson leads by 6 points. However, Iovino has not yet conceded this morning said the number of outstanding ballots is TBD and could put her ahead. 

SD-45: GOP challenger Nicole Ziccarelli has a narrow lead over state Sen. Jim Brewster (D-Allegheny). As of Thursday morning, Ziccarelli leads by 2 points, according to the New York Times. 

SD-49: Sen. Dan Laughlin (R-Erie) defeated Democratic challenger Julie Slomski. As of Thursday morning, Laughlin leads by 30 points. 

 

State House

HD-3: GOP challenger Greg Hayes trails state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro (D-Erie) by about 1,700 votes, according to Erie County election returns. Bizzaro declared victory. 

HD-16: State Rep. Rob Matzie (D-Beaver) leads GOP challenger Rico Elmore by 5 points, according to DOS

HD-18: Rep. K.C. Tomlinson (R-Bucks) holds a few point advantage over Democratic challenger Harold Hayes. As of Thursday morning, Tomlinson leads by 6 points, according to DOS. 

HD-25: Rep. Brandon Markosek (D-Allegheny) defeated GOP challenger John Ritter. As of Thursday morning, Markosek leads by 15 points, according to DOS. 

HD-26: Rep. Tim Hennessey (R-Chester) leads Democratic challenger Paul Friel by 8 points, according to DOS.

HD-28: Republican Rob Mercuri defeated Democrat Emily Skopov for the open seat in Allegheny County. As of Thursday morning, Mercuri leads by 8 points, according to DOS. 

HD-30: Rep. Lori Mizgorski (R-Allegheny) defeated Democratic challenger Lissa Geiger Shulman. As of Thursday morning, Mizgorski leads by 10 points, according to DOS. 

HD-33: Republican Carrie DelRosso leads House Minority Leader Frank Dermody (D-Allegheny) by 4 points, according to DOS. 

HD-44: Rep. Valerie Gaydos (R-Allegheny) defeated Democratic challenger Michele Knoll. As of Thursday morning, Gaydos leads by 10 points, according to DOS. 

HD-50: GOP challenger Larry Yost holds a narrow lead over state Rep. Pam Snyder (D-Greene). As of Thursday morning, Yost leads by 54 votes, according to DOS. 

HD-53: Rep. Steven Malagari (D-Montgomery) leads GOP challenger Miles Arnott by just under 5 points, according to DOS. 

HD-55: GOP challenger Jason Silvis holds a lead over Rep. Joe Petrarca (D-Westmoreland). As of Thursday morning, Silvis leads by 6 points, according to DOS. 

HD-105: Rep. Andrew Lewis (R-Dauphin) leads Democratic challenger Brittney Rodas by just under 4 points, according to DOS. 

HD-106: Rep. Tom Mehaffie (R-Dauphin) has defeated Democratic challenger Lindsay Drew, according to the New York Times. As of Thursday morning, Mehaffie leads by 7 points, according to DOS. 

HD-123: Republican Tim Twardzik leads Democrat Peter Symons Jr. by 25 points, according to DOS. The seat is held by state Rep. Neal Goodman (D-Schuylkill), who is retiring at the end of the current term.

HD-131: Republican Milou Mackenzie has defeated Democrat Kevin Branco for the open seat in the Lehigh Valley. As of Thursday morning, Mackenzie leads by 20 points, according to DOS. 

HD-138: Republican Ann Flood has defeated Democrat Tara Zrinski for the open seat in the Lehigh Valley. As of Thursday morning, Flood leads by 12 points, according to DOS. 

HD-144: Rep. Todd Polinchock (R-Bucks) has defeated Democratic challenger Gary Spillane, according to the New York Times. As of Thursday morning, Polinchock leads by 16 points, according to DOS.

HD-151: Rep. Todd Stephens (R-Montgomery) leads Democratic challenger Jonathan Kassa by 6 points, according to DOS. 

HD-152: Democrat Nancy Guenst declared victory over Republican Karen Houck, according to the Bucks County Courier Times. This seat, held by retiring state Rep. Tom Murt (R-Montgomery), will be a flip for Democrats. 

HD-160: Republican Craig Williams has defeated Democrat Anton Andrew for the open seat in the Philadelphia suburbs, according to the New York Times. As of Thursday morning, Williams leads by 3 points, according to DOS. 

HD-165: Rep. Jen O’Mara (D-Delaware) leads Republican challenger Robert Smythe Jr by less than 1 point, according to DOS. 

HD-168: Rep. Chris Quinn (R-Delaware) leads Democratic challenger Deb Ciamacca by 3 points, according to DOS. 

HD-170: Rep. Martina White (R-Philadelphia) has defeated Democratic challenger Mike Doyle. As of Thursday morning, White leads by 25 points, according to DOS. 

HD-176: Rep. Jack Rader (R-Monroe) has defeated Democratic challenger Claudette Williams. As of Thursday morning, Rader leads by 20 points, according to DOS. 

HD-178: Rep. Wendi Thomas (R-Bucks) has defeated Democratic challenger Ann Marie Mitchell. As of Thursday morning, Thomas leads 15 points, according to DOS.

November 5th, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Playbook, Top Stories | 17 Comments

17 thoughts on “PoliticsPA: 2020 General Election Results Thursday Playbook”

  1. Common Sense says:

    Perhaps the voting age should be raised.
    ” If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain “

  2. Common Sense says:

    democrats would welcome poll observation if everything was legit, not fight it and cover areas with cardboard and paper to hide. Yes, that happened. Dims only chance was corruption. Dirtbags of politics.

  3. Dr. Bob says:

    “PA7: Rep. Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) trails GOP challenger Lisa Scheller by 4,757 votes (or 1.4 points) with 84% in. Wild closed the gap significantly on Wednesday as mail-in ballots continue to be counted.”

    BUT

    “Congressional Races – It looks like no incumbent member of Congress in PA will lose this cycle.”

  4. LauraW says:

    How can we trust the Secy of State when her boss endorsed Biden and trashed Trump for months? How can she look at disputed ballots neutrally and fairly?

    1. Other Chris says:

      Would you have said the same in 2012 when Secretary Carol Aichele was presiding over the PA vote in the 2012 election?

      Fortunately for you, local county boards of election review disputed ballots. If and when the dispute is unsettled it goes to the courts. In no way is the Secretary reviewing ballots.

    2. Bronfman Muller says:

      Wake up and smell the coffee! The Sec of State serves the Governor who is an elected official. We are not talk about a parish priest spilling the beans about confessions heard. As for the issue of fraud, Good God do you really think that in an era of everybody with a cell phone camera and everybody with a website and a 24 hour news cycle that if there was any fraud it would fly under the radar??? Don’t be a sore loser and blame Trump’s loss on anything other than sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

  5. Ned Shneablee says:

    Kinda like taxes I guess.

  6. jjcnpa says:

    I hope mail in balloting is not encouraged in PA post-pandemic. It would be nice to see early in person voting become a reality in PA

    1. Eddie Sullivan says:

      Do you know what early in person voting is? You go to the County Election Bureau and fill out a paper ballot. I walked in and dropped my ballot off at the same County Election Bureau you advocate people stand in line to vote. I walked by the same people who voted in person to drop my ballot off. What is the difference? Why do people have to be physically present so that you can be at ease when voting? Just because you buy into President Donny’s horsephooey about mail in ballot’s doesn’t mean the rest of us should be denied that option. Oh, by the way, your Republican buddies in the State Legislature approved mail in ballots in a bipartisan move. Feel better now?

  7. Facebook Fact Checkers says:

    Fact Check. Republicans also flipped the 123rd House Seat in Schuylkill County. A seat held by Democrats for over 50 years.

  8. gulag Pittsburgh says:

    GOP legislature in PA set up the “red mirage” scenario where Trump is ahead by refusing to allow mail-in ballots to be counted AFTER election day. Now the reality of all those Biden mail-in votes are being counted. Biden will win PA, and the presidency.

    1. The Huckabeast says:

      FACT – county commissioners of both parties told the PA Legislature months ago that they needed immediate legislation passed to permit the counties to begin processing the mail in ballots before 8pm on election night. FACT – The IDIOTS in Harrisburg failed to do anything thus putting us in this scenario of the Red Mirage for Trump. Also realize, the counties could not even start preparing the ballots to be processed by removing them from the privacy envelopes until Election Day morning. One last FACT – there were many counties that compounded the problem by deciding they would not even start processing the mail in ballots until Wednesday morning.

      1. Jorge O' Mally says:

        Maybe if they didn’t except ballots 3 days after the election things would move a little quicker.This whole system is a joke. Why the hell would anybody wait until the day of the election to mail their ballot? Something sure smells fishy nevermind that’s just Pittsburgh.

        1. Answer Desk says:

          It’s “accept” trumptard.

          1. COmmon Sense says:

            Ahh, more of that “Love trumps hate” the libtards preach. What an ass.
            Don’t be embarrassed. As you mature and gain wisdom, you’ll catch on. No reason to be so bitter and angry all the time. Cheers!

        2. David Diano says:

          2.6 million ballots returned on time by election day.

          1) Hardly any ballots came in after Tuesday.
          2) Philly estimating at most 1,000 late ballots by Friday.
          3) Statewide estimate: not more than 10,000 (out of 2.6 million)

          Of the possible 10,000 most would have a postmark by election day, and were just late arriving…

          not the fault of voters who turned them over in time.

          I expect there will be almost zero without a postmark or a postmark after election day or illegible postmark.

          Prediction: votes with postmark by election day will count, and challenge by Trump will lose on that point.

          1. Answer Desk says:

            Just giving you guys the gift you’ve been giving for the past 4 years. We’ll take the high road when your president (soon to be ex) does.
            Never go full trumptard.

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