Poll: Casey 42, Smith 21

Tom Smith has some catching up to do. According to the Franklin and Marshall poll released this morning, incumbent Senator Bob Casey leads his Republican challenger by 21 points. However, 35 percent of voters remain undecided.

Of those undecided voters, 19 say they’re leaning Casey and 10 percent say they’re leaning Smith. The full poll is here (PDF).

Casey has enjoyed a lead in every poll of the race so far including Public Policy Polling (49 to 33 percent) and Rasmussen (48 to 41 percent), each released in late May.

Smith, a former coal company owner and Tea Party leader from Armstrong County, cleared a crowded GOP primary in April. But due in part to the fact that the presidential primary was ongoing for most of his race, he hasn’t seen a big boost in name ID.

77 percent of poll respondents said they didn’t have an opinion of him, and those that do break down essentially by partisan proportions: 8 percent favorable, 14 percent unfavorable.

Unsurprisingly Casey, who has held numerous PA offices, and whose father was PA Governor, has stronger name ID. But it’s not phenomenal: 29 percent of respondents don’t have an opinion of him, either. Those that do have a positive opinion, 38 percent to 18 percent. That’s a consistent increase in favorability, according to F&M, since March 2011.

It’s not all roses for the first term Senator. He’s personally popular, but satisfaction with his job performance is lackluster. 40 percent of those polled responded that he has done “only a fair job” or a “poor job,” compared to 38 percent who say he has done an “excellent job” or “good job.” 21 percent remain undecided on his performance.

The difference between Casey’s favorability and his job might also be attributed to the base of anti-Democratic voters in the survey, or it might be the deep-seated disapproval of all of Congress. In either case, he’s short of the 50 percent mark that denotes a safe incumbent.

The Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College interviewed 412 Pennsylvania voters from May 29 to June 4, 2012. Democrats accounted for just over 50 percent of respondents, Republicans just under 38 percent (current registration in PA is 50.6 percent D, 38.1 percent R).  The sample error is +/- 4.8 percent.

11 Responses

  1. @ BlackFord Oakes

    I assure you that EHS has proper accommodations for its sports programs. However, since Tom Smith opened his doors we have been able to create better practice schedules that are better for the students. That’s pretty much the extent of what he has done for our community. He hasn’t come forward to support our school, and I don’t care if he is working 16 hours a day, there are some people working that amount of time and running their family and supporting our community school. If you view him as our “savior” for future generations then you have another thing coming…

    As a member of the future generation, I would rather saw off my own hand than vote for him. I think it’s more efficient to run a class with 20 kids, than have them shipped over to another school which is pretty far away and handing gas companies even more money rather than giving good teachers a pay check. Like other posters said, you need to do your research before you post.

    PS: Elderton High School graduated 44 students this year and like a previous poster said, enrollment is higher in younger classes. Every community has it’s fluctuations in population (if you don’t believe me, you need to take a geography class) and I think Elderton would have a higher population if our school’s existence wasn’t always threatened. People are looking for stability to build a family and you can’t have that when a corrupt school board has a hell bent vendetta about closing our great award winning school. But like a previous poster said, who cares about Elderton kids?

  2. Did Tom Smith ever do anything that didn’t benefit Tom Smith!? No

    Did Tom Smith pay union wages to his employees? No

    Is Tom Smith a lifelong conservative? No. Unless you mean since last August when he decided to run for a PAID office

    Tom Smith is clearly out of his league and would fail Pennsylvania as a U S Senator. Put him and Casey in a real debate Not the biased propagandical farces Smith allows at his Tea Party cult “debates” but a REAL debate. Casey will win. Hands down

  3. @blackfotd Oakes. Please get your facts straight. Elderton High School doesn’t have one grade with only 20 kids in it. Current numbers show the senior class almost doubled from last year. And the lower classes have between 60 to 80 per class. This school is the only school to be nationally recognized for education in the district and the strong battle put by community members show it is the center of the community. The only reason renovations weren’t done and the school is now up for another closure vote is thanks to illegal actions by Senator Don White and Representative Jeff Pyle who were appeasing their wealthy contributors in order for them to force upon our school district their dream quad a school. TomSmith could have helped his community but instead turned his back on them once his children all graduated and his wife retired from teaching in the district with an assured hefty PSER awaiting, he got all he needed

    Never mind that there will be no school left in this 98 square mile areaand by the time the new high school is built in two years, that means Elderton kids. ( not Tom’s though) will have been moved four times in five years. No Kittanning kid would ever be treated that way. But then we all know Elderton kids don’t matter.

    A special thank you to Mr Ron Tomalis for allowing this to happen and setting precedent for all elected officials in the state to be undermined by someone with more political influence.

    And who is going to pay for the $8million in lost fees due to the stoppage of those projects? Oh yeah. That’s us. The taxpayers of Armstring School District.

  4. The voters of PA need to know that Rose Bud Mining gave immediate increase of $7.00/hr+ to employees who previously worked for Tom Smith. These workers are bragging about the increase that they deserved and did not receive fair wages working for Tom Smith. I wish that the public could hear this from the workers who did not receive fair wages.
    Also ask the employees about the poor type of health insurance they received as employees from Tom Smith.

  5. The comment by David Diano is correct that Tom Smith needs to retire. There is no need for uneducated persons to be elected for Senator. Bob Casey is an educated man and is doing an excellent job for the state. I wish that the people would read the Bob Casey facebook. Tom Smith has a lot of campaign money and will try to smear a good man.

  6. Elderton graduated more than 20 students. More than half of the classes go to Lenape Tech. I wish that some people would do there research before making comments. The district needs to be divided into 3 parts. A vote from the 1960’s and a school board decision based from the 60’s is the continued effort of some head strong school board members. They need to get into the 21st century and learn that the tax payer dollar should be the decision maker for the Elderton school and not the school board.

  7. @Armstrong County Resident
    Tom Smith has and continues to have nothing to do with the proposed closure of Elderton. While people have been debating that issue for years, he’s been working 16 hour days—overseeing his companies, farming, opening the doors of his home to Elderton sports programs (since adequate facilities are/were not otherwise available), and most recently campaigning to save America for future generations. Perhaps people are realizing it is not efficient to have a high school remain open that graduates less than 20 students a year, but your comments ignore that fact.

  8. I would vote for a park bench over Casey, and it would be smarter then he is.

  9. Only someone who thinks Franklin and Marshall’s polls are valid thinks Bob Casey is home free.

    Did Bob Casey ever hold a union card?

    Did he ever have a job in private sector?

    Did he ever get his hands and face dirty in his job?

  10. “Tom Smith has some catching up to do.” ???

    No…. He’s got some retirement planning to do. !!

    “However, 35 percent of voters remain undecided.

    Of those undecided voters, 19 say they’re leaning Casey and 10 percent say they’re leaning Smith.”

    What a shock, the undecideds are leaning the same way as the decided.

Comments are closed.

  • Who Will Be Speaker of the PA House on February 28?

    • Joanna McClinton (68%)
    • Mark Rozzi (27%)
    • A Republican TBD (5%)

    Total Voters: 315

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