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Q-pac Poll: Senate Race Tightening; F&M Poll: No, It Isn’t

Two polls released Wednesday sent conflicting signals about the race for U.S. Senate.

A Quinnipiac survey showed Republican Tom Smith gaining on Sen. Bob Casey, who he trails 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. That’s a 6 point deficit, compared to an 18 point lead that Casey held in Q-pac’s August 1 survey, 55 percent to 37. Plus the freshman Democrat is no longer above the 50 percent mark.

However, a Franklin and Marshall poll released today showed Casey ahead 46 percent to 34 percent – a margin identical to its poll from mid-August. Then, Casey also lead by 12 points, 35 percent to 23. The Senator’s lead shrinks when the poll is narrowed to likely voters: Casey leads them 48 percent to 38 percent.

Both of today’s polls showed President Obama leading Mitt Romney by double digits.

In both polls, Smith, a former coal company owner, leads Casey among men: 50 to 43 in Q-pac, 42 to 42 in F&M.

Smith lags 50 to 28 among women according to F&M. Though the margin of the Q-pac poll is smaller, Smith’s gender gap is still wide. Casey leads 53 to 36 among women in that poll.

Franklin and Marshall has a regional breakdown of the race, which shows Casey running parallel to Obama in parts of the state that the President is winning, and ahead of Obama in the parts he’s losing:

Southwest: Casey 41, Smith 45
Central: Casey 35, Smith 40
Southeast: Casey 49, Smith 36
Northwest: Casey 44, Smith 34
Northeast: Casey 47, Smith 32
Allegheny: Casey 52, Smith 36
Philadelphia: Casey 68, Smith 16

F&M also has some good news for Smith. By a margin of 47 percent to 38, voters disapprove of the job Casey is doing as Senator.

The bad news for Smith? Casey’s personal favorability is positive, 37 percent to 29. 22 percent of respondents didn’t know enough to form an opinion. A whopping 49 percent didn’t know enough to have an opinion about Smith (though that number is down from 68 percent in August, thanks to the candidates’ TV ads). 20 percent view Smith favorably, 18 percent veiw him unfavorably, and 13 percent are undecided.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,180 likely Pa. voters via land lines and cell phones from Sept. 18 to 24. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent. The poll was produced in conjunction with CBS and the New York Times.

Franklin and Marshall polled 632 Pennsylvania voters, including 392 likely voters, from September 18 to 23. The margin of error for registred voters is plus or minus 3.9 percent; the margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 4.9 percent. The poll sample includes 50 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans and 11 percent independents. The poll was produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers.

2 Responses

  1. Leo-

    22% probably can’t even name the two PA senators, let alone anything about them. I bet at least 22% can’t name any accomplishment by Toomey.

  2. “The bad news for Smith? Casey’s personal favorability is positive, 37 percent to 29. 22 percent of respondents didn’t know enough to form an opinion.”

    I’m not sure that 22% of respondents not know enough about Casey after 6 years to have an opinion of him, speaks very highly of his “accomplishments”.

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