Washington Post Rates PA as “Lean Democratic”

WaPo Map 5-23-16A consensus is emerging.

In the last month NBC News, Cook Political Report, and CNN have all classified Pennsylvania as “Lean Democratic” in their electoral college projections.

Today, the Washington Post is following suit.

Chris Cillizza and Philip Bump of the site’s political page, “The Fix”, look at Pennsylvania and Michigan as similar cases.

“Michigan and Pennsylvania have each voted Democratic since 1992. The electorate in each in 2012 was about an eighth black, a group that strongly supports Clinton,” they write. “Trump’s campaign hinges on his ability to appeal to blue-collar white voters in Rust Belt states like these two, luring Democrats to his candidacy and turning out people who don’t normally vote. So far, there’s not much evidence Trump has turned out new voters, and the number of working-class whites who still vote Democratic has dwindled. (In 2014, white Midwesterners without a college degree preferred Republican House candidates by almost 30 points.) Unless Trump shows that he can move these numbers, these states are likely to stay blue.”

They also have Colorado and Nevada as Lean Democratic states while Georgia and Arizona earn Lean Republican status.

Under that scenario, Clinton would have 252 electoral votes to Trump’s 191 with seven states and 95 electoral votes up for grabs.

Those seven states are: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.

Pres. Obama won all seven in 2008 and six out of seven in 2012 (North Carolina went for Romney).

7 Responses

  1. This is one reason people don’t trust the Media anymore and they have no credibility.. Here is what he said in this article ” So far, there’s not much evidence Trump has turned out new voters,”
    Well that is so far from the truth.
    Here is a article from the Philly.com paper
    “At least 180K join GOP as Pa. primary nears”
    By Caitlin McCabe and Chris Palmer, STAFF WRITERS
    POSTED: March 30, 2016
    When Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump square off in Pennsylvania’s April 26 Republican presidential primary, they will find themselves competing for votes from a rapidly changing base.

    At least 128,000 voters statewide have changed their registration since Jan. 1 to join the party. Nearly 85,000 of them had been Democrats; 42,000 were independents or third-party voters. The GOP has also racked up 55,468 more first-time registrants.

    The changes reflect what experts are calling an unprecedented number of party switches before a primary election.

    That raises questions: Are Democrats and other voters flocking to the GOP in support of one of its three candidates? Or could they be plotting to stuff the ballot boxes for a Republican they think their nominee can beat in November?

    “I don’t think we can say there’s one reason here,” said G. Terry Madonna, the veteran pollster who directs the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College. “But in the Philadelphia suburbs, if people are switching, some of that would be strategic: Vote for Trump because he would be the weakest candidate against [Hillary] Clinton.”

    Since the start of 2016, nearly 215,000 Pennsylvania voters have switched their party affiliation, which includes the GOP surge, as well as 86,500 who became Democrats.

  2. Tim-

    Only a nation interested in self-destruction would elect Trump.

    Hillary’s going to win with 320 to 330 electoral votes

  3. Dave Diano looooovvvvves shoppppinnnnnggggg @@@@@@…….. AMAZON.COM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    HA, HA, HA, HA, HA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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