YouGov Poll: Obama & Casey Lead

Smith, left, and Casey

According to a pollster that combines online surveys with traditional methods, President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 52 percent to 44. Sen. Bob Casey leads Tom Smith 50 percent to 42.

Romney leads independents 54 percent to 41.

YouGov surveyed 1,273 likely voters from Oct. 21 to Nov. 3. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percent.

Obama’s lead is wider than it was in YouGov’s mid-October poll when he lead 51 percent to 44. Casey’s lead was narrower then, too, 48 percent to 41.

The methodology explanation from YouGov:

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

7 Responses

  1. Bob Casey is the Worst Senator in the History of the United States of America. No matter how hard the Dems try – just can’t polish a turd. Buh Bye Bobby.

  2. Yeah, I want to believe this, but this can’t have a representative sample group. Any online poll is gonna have over-representation of young people and under-representation of seniors….which is exactly the OPPOSITE of election day voting patterns. These guys can talk about census data and careful sampling all they want, but I’m not buying this.

  3. Some of those studies are through the Census and information from them is confidential so that makes no sense that they got a sampling from a confidential government survey! Cleary this poll is a lie! But there is no way they got Samplings from where they say it’s impossible!

  4. Romney is up 13 points with independents, yet still loses by 8 points?!?! How is that even possible? They must be expecting one massive, super human turnout of epic proportions by the Democrats. If this poll is accurate, then the game is over folks and politics in PA has been completely changed forever. Democrats can now lose even single GOP vote in the state, get crushed massively by independents, yet still win a state-wide race by nearly double digits.

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