Dem Poll: Biden 51, Trump 44

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a several point edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this Democratic data and polling firm.

A TargetSmart poll of likely voters reported by the National Journal on Friday shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, in the state. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, previous polling from TargetSmart/William & Mary favored Democrats by an average of 0.6% and has an overall B/C grade. However, the crosstabs from this latest poll only cites TargetSmart as the pollster.  

According to TargetSmart’s website, Everytown for Gun Safety, United Steelworkers, and the Massachusetts Nurses Association have all utilized the polling firm to deliver data.

Recent polling shows Biden leading Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. A poll released last Tuesday morning from Susquehanna Polling & Research showed Biden with just a 2 point edge over Trump with likely voters, 44-to-42, which is within the poll’s margin of error. A Morning Consult poll released last Wednesday morning showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, among likely voters in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll released last Wednesday had the former VP leading the president by 4 points, 50-to-46. Biden’s largest lead in recent polls comes from a NBC News/Marist poll also released last Wednesday morning that shows 53% of likely voters in the state are backing Biden’s bid, while 44% are supporting Trump. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.3 points in Pennsylvania. 

This poll, surveying 835 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between September 3-6, has a ±3.4% margin of error. Out of the 835 respondents, 175 were landline respondents (155 weighted), 225 were wireless respondents (242 weighted), and 435 responded online (438 weighted). 

The crosstabs from TargetSmart can be found here.

  • When Should The Special Elections For The PA House Be Held?

    • May 16, 2023 (Primary Day) (51%)
    • March, 2023 (47%)
    • April, 2023 (2%)

    Total Voters: 173

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