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F&M Poll: Obama 48, Romney 44; Casey 46, Smith 35

The presidential contest has narrowed considerably while the U.S. Senate race hasn’t budged according to the latest Franklin and Marshall poll of registered Pa. voters.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 4 points, 48 percent to 44. That’s down from an 11 point lead in F&M’s mid-September poll.

Among likely voters, Obama leads 49 percent to 45.

The biggest difference for Romney: a 28 point swing among independents. Those voters went for Obama in September, 42 percent to 30. Now they break big for Romney, 48 percent to 32.

Obama leads women, 54 percent to 40. Romney leads men, 48 percent to 42.

Obama’s job approval is negative, 53 percent to 46. His personal favorability is positive, 50 percent to 45. Romney’s favorability is negative, 46 percent to 43 (16 points better than September).

F&M surveyed 849 registered voters from October 23 – 28 via live interviews. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percent. The poll includes 547 likely voters, MOE plus or minus 4.2 percent. Registered voters were 50 percent Dem, 37 percent GOP (mirroring Pa.’s voter reg totals). Republicans are fighting above their class; likely voters self-identified as 50 percent Dem, 41 percent GOP.

U.S. Senate

Sen. Bob Casey looks strong in this poll and leads GOP challenger Tom Smith 46 percent to 35.

While most other independent polls show this race tightening, Franklin and Marshall’s survey says the race hasn’t moved since September, when Casey lead 46 percent to 34.

Among likely voters, Casey leads 48 percent to 39.

The Senator’s job approval rating leaves much to be desired: voters disapprove him 51 percent to 37. Only 6 percent say he’s done an excellent job. Personally, he’s viewed favorably 36 percent to 31 percent. Smith’s personal favorability is split, 28 percent apiece (including 21 percent who have a strongly unfavorable view of him).

Like Romney, independents have swung Smith’s way – by 16 points. Casey lead them 34 percent to 28 in September; Smith leads them 38 percent to 28 now.

Smith’s downfall is his enormous gap among women voters, who Casey leads almost 2 to 1: 50 percent to 28. Smith leads men by 1 point, 42 percent to 41. Casey also leads among older Pennsylvanians, 50 percent to 35 among those aged 55 and and up.

Here are the regional breakdowns for president. Note the 20 point Romney swing in the southeast:

Central: Obama 37, Romney 53 (Sept: Obama 38, Romney 49)
Northwest: Obama 42, Romney 53 (Sept: Obama 54, Romney 37)
Southwest: Obama 43, Romney 52 (Sept: Obama 28, Romney 60)
Southeast: Obama 45, Romney 47 (Sept: Obama 54, Romney 36)
Allegheny: Obama 59, Romney 36 (Sept: Obama 57, Romney 35)
Northeast: Obama 54, Romney 35 (Sept: Obama 61, Romney 26)
Philadelphia: Obama 79, Romney 16 (Sept: Obama 75, Romney 16)

U.S. Senate regional breakdown:

Northwest: Casey 43, Smith 45 (Sept: Casey 44, Smith 34)
Central: Casey 37, Smith 44 (Sept: Casey 35, Smith 40)
Southeast: Casey 38, Smith 40 (Sept: Casey 49, Smith 36)
Southwest: Casey 41, Smith 40 (Sept: Casey 41, Smith 45)
Northeast: Casey 52, Smith 30 (Sept: Casey 47, Smith 32)
Allegheny: Casey 61, Smith 24 (Sept: Casey 52, Smith 36)
Philadelphia: Casey 72, Smith 4 (Sept: Casey 68, Smith 16)

2 Responses

  1. The Romney vs Obama Philadelphia number is interesting, especially considering the greater SEPA number. If something like 20% of the vote goes to Romney in Philadelphia, the Republicans there should feel very proud and know that they deserve respect and support throughout the PaGOP going forward. Kudos to those guys down there in SEPA. Philadelphia will have finally gotten on the map with Rs.

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