We’ve got our hands on an exclusive internal poll of the presidential and Senate races in Pa. The DCCC cuts back in PA-8, but Boockvar raised $500K+ and is on TV again. And there’s lots of action in the state House & Senate races. Good morning politicos, here’s the Buzz.
Exclusive: LFR Poll: Prez, Senate Races Within Margin of Error: A poll commissioned by conservative non-profit group Let Freedom Ring, Inc. and obtained by PoliticsPA shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney 47 percent to 45. Sen. Bob Casey leads Tom Smith 44 percent to 41.
Rasmussen Poll: 7 Point Romney Post-Debate Pa. Bump: Mitt Romney has bounced back from a Pa. low according to the latest poll from Rasmussen. He trails President Obama by 5 points, 51 percent to 46. But that’s a 7 point jump for Romney since’ Rasmussen’s previous Pa. poll, taken in mid-September.
Susquehanna Poll: Casey 46, Smith 44: The latest survey from Susquehanna Polling and Research shows the smallest margin yet of the race for U.S. Senate in Pa. Republican Tom Smith trails Sen. Bob Casey by just 2 points, 46 percent to 44, and the race is within the poll’s margin of error.
PA Former Dem Knocks Biden for Gay Marriage Support (Watch Video): Remember Jo Ann Nardelli, the Blair County Democratic Party leader who defected this year over same sex marriage? She’s back, this time in a web video critical of Vice President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party platform on the issue.
PA-8 Congressional Race
DCCC Yanks Air Support to Boockvar: Kathy Boockvar will have a lot less help in her challenge to Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cancelled almost $600K in television ads that would have boosted her in the second-to-last week of the campaign.
Boockvar Brings in $520K in Q3: We have our first 3rd quarter fundraising announcement. Kathy Boockvar, the Democrat challenging Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, raised $520,000 in the third quarter.
Boockvar Ad Goes All Out for Women’s Issue Message (Watch Video): A new ad from Democrat Kathy Boockvar’s campaign says that Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick has chosen the wrong side in the so-called “War on Women.” Fitzpatrick also unveiled a new ad on Wednesday, a heartstrings spot about Fitzpatrick’s effort to help a family whose tragic loss was compounded by red tape.
Other Congressional Races
Marino Goes Negative (Watch Video): Tom Marino’s new TV ad hits back against charges that he voted to end Medicare and blasts Dem challenger Phil Scollo over unpaid taxes.
Perry, Eyes on DC, Stumps with Cantor: The odds are that Scott Perry will be a Congressman as long as he wants to. It comes as no surprise that he’s getting attention from national GOP bigwigs like House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who keynoted a fundraiser for Perry Tuesday night.
Legislative Election Updates
Now that Voter ID is on hold for 2012, Capitolwire takes a look at some of the races that could be impacted by Latino or African American populations upset about the law. Included are the re-elects of Reps. John Taylor (R-Phila) and Tarah Toohil (R-Luzerne), where Latino populations are high but politically apathetic; and the open seats in Erie (HD-3 and SD-49) and Harrisburg (SD-15) where Voter ID outrage may inoculate African American turnout against any enthusiasm gap.
SD-15, 37, 47 & 49: Dem state Senate candidates in 4 races will get a boost from Sen. Vincent Hughes and his wife Sheryl Lee Ralph, the actress who portrayed one of the original Dreamgirls on Broadway and played the mom on ‘Moesha’. The tour is aimed at boosting African American support for Rob Teplitz, Matt Smith, Kim Villella and Sean Wiley.
SD-15: Democrat Rob Teplitz wants to make education the issue in his competitive state Senate race. His latest ad ties Republican John McNally to Gov. Tom Corbett and his unpopular budget cuts. McNally says it’s false, but Teplitz points to statements McNally made during the primary. Capitolwire also covered the exchange. Plus, the Conservation Voters of Pennsylvania (CVPA) backed Teplitz.
SD-37: Capitolwire’s Pete DeCoursey absolutely takes apart Rep. Matt Smith over a pension flip flop. Smith promised not to take a pension for 2007 and 2008. But after winning re-election in 2008, he retroactively signed up for a pension that covered 2007 and 2008. The flip is the subject of a new attack ad from Raja, Smith’s GOP opponent in the race to replace ex-Sen. John Pippy.
SD-47: George Bush, Dick Cheney, Tom Corbett and Mitt Romney all make a cameo in Kim Villella’s new ad. It slams incumbent Sen. Elder Vogel (R-Beaver) for voting the party line 98 percent of the time. Meanwhile, Vogel’s up with an ad about his ties to Beaver County.
SD-49: Want to support Janet Anderson? There’s an app for that. The Republican vying to replace outgoing Sen. Jane Earll (R-Erie) launched a nifty campaign smartphone app, making her the first Pa. legislative candidate to do that, that we’ve heard of. “I have made it a priority to be accessible to everyone in Erie County and I hope that people will utilize my app to get the latest information regarding upcoming events and where I stand on the issues,” said Anderson.
HD-3: Jason Owen, the Republican vying to replace retiring Rep. John Hornaman (R-Erie) is on TV. Here’s his 30 second positive ad.
HD-44: Rep. Mark Mustio is polling negative messages to use against his opponent. So says Democrat Mark Scappe, past President of the Moon Area School District Board of Directors and Chair of the Moon Transportation Authority who is running against Mustio. “Voters in the 44th Legislative District have been receiving calls from Mr. Mustio’s pollsters testing negative messages for the purposes of attacking our candidate with negative direct mail and misleading advertising,” said Jessica McCurdy, spokesperson for the Scappe campaign.
HD-89: Dem Susan Spicka held her 3rd issues forum, this one on education. The former teacher and Democrat is running against Rep. Rob Kauffman (R-Franklin). She blasted him for his support of GOP budgets and vouchers.
HD-131: Rep. Justin Simmons (R-Lehigh) appears to be on a roll against Dem public school teacher Kevin Deely. He picked up the endorsement of the Easton Express-Times, launched a new TV ad, and by one account (with video), he cleaned up at a debate Monday night. He looks like he’d have given Mitt Romney a run for his money on the debate stage. It’s schedule to broadcast on WFMZ on Oct. 22.
HD-149: Ed Rendell will be the featured guest at a fundraiser for Rep. Tim Briggs (D-Montco) in Wynnewood on Oct. 20. “Of everyone in Harrisburg…one thing is for sure.Tim Briggs is not a WUSS! He always stands strong for what’s right!” Rendell said. He faces Republican Perrin Hamilton.
Washington Post: Members of Congress back legislation that could benefit themselves, families (lengthy section on Rep. Mike Kelly).
National Journal: New poll shows that Pa may be a tougher battle than previously thought
Politico: Fallout from Sandusky case beginning to affect Corbett’s reputation
Capitol Ideas: Sandusky ruling may affect Governor Corbett’s race
Pennsylvania Independent: Representative Keller seeks to decrease benefits for public workers who are felons
Pennsylvania Independent: Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will remain on presidential ballot
Pennsylvania Independent: House expense reports show that Pa lawmakers spent over one hundred thousand dollars in weekend per diems.
StateImpactPa: New discussion of clean coal begins as election nears
Capitolwire: Organized labor, trial lawyers and other groups step up to fund Kane’s AG campaign
Capitolwire: What are the possible negative effects of the voter Id law
Capitolwire: State senate candidates debate education funding
City Paper: Sowing the seeds: Can Obama’s grassroots campaign deliver like it did in ‘08?
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Critz, Rothfus on message in Beaver debate
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Romney pulling even with Obama in polls
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: More Medicare in PA12, with Pat Boone
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Ras: Obama up 51-46% in Pa
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Big news for Ravenstahl, city
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Dems seek review of mining exec
Citizen’s Voice: County Manager, citing politics, declines to register to vote
Times Leader: Judge rules Libertarians will stay on Pa. ballot
Times Leader: Biden likely to play ‘hardball’ in VP debate
Patriot News: Sen. Bob Casey Jr. makes rare campaign stop in Carlisle
Patriot News: House-passed payday lending bill stalls in Senate
Lancaster Online: What are you doing on 10-11-12
Lancaster Online: Obama on debate with Romney: ” I had a bad night”
Lancaster Online: 1991 wedding guest list made VP debate side issue
Lancaster Online: Mrs. Romney says horses helped with MS diagnosis
Lancaster Online: Romney’s Bain advisers aided China, Russia, growth
Lancaster Online: For Obama, this time, it is ‘grind it out’ mode
Lancaster Online: Pro-Romney super PAC plans 4-state TV ad blitz
York Daily Record: Big Bird, Chick-Fil-A and Bain coverage in Pennsylvania
York Daily Record: Romney reveals he met former Navy Seal killed in Libya
York Daily Record: Ohio asks Supreme Court to stop early voting
York Daily Record: Romney says he won’t pursue abortion laws
York Daily Record: Lots of plumbers, but no Joes: Candidates are more careful when naming names this year
Rock the Capitol: Corbett under fire for possible malfeasance in financial review process
Keystone Politics: If You’re Explaining, You’re Losing: PA GOP Education Funding Edition
Keystone Politics: No, PBS and Food Stamps Are Not Driving the Deficit
Keystone Politics: Chuck Schumer is Right About Tax Reform
Keystone Politics: PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick Probably Wishing Sesame Place Wasn’t in His District
Keystone Progress: General Motors Is Alive
The Liberty Blog: Free Markets v Free Medicine