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Monmouth Poll: Biden 54, Trump 42

A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden has extended his lead over President Donald Trump among registered voters in Pennsylvania. 

A Monmouth University poll released on Tuesday morning shows Biden leading Trump by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the Keystone State. This is a significant increase for Biden in comparison to Monmouth’s most recent poll conducted in late August that showed the former VP leading the president by just 4 points, 49-to-45, among registered voters in the state.

In this latest poll, Biden also leads beyond the margin of error among likely voters. Biden leads Trump by 11 points, 54-to-43, among likely voters in the high turnout model. Biden holds an 8 point advantage over Trump, 53-to-45, among likely voters in the low turnout model. 

In the previous poll conducted in late August, Biden only led Trump by 3 points and 1 point respectively among likely voters in the high turnout model and the low turnout model. 

While Biden’s lead in all three models were within the margin of error in late-August, all three of his leads in this latest poll are beyond the margin of error.

Biden made significant ground in this latest poll in the ten counties where the voter margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election, which Monmouth dubbed as the “swing counties.” 53% of registered voters in the swing counties said they support Biden, while 42% said they support Trump. In late-August, Trump led Biden by 2 points, 46-to-44, among these voters. The counties included in this category are Berks, Bucks, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Erie, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton. 

Biden made gains in his favorability rating, while Trump saw a decrease in this latest poll. 50% have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 44% have an unfavorable view of him, which is up from his numbers in late-August (48-to-46). 40% have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 52% have an unfavorable one. In late-August, 44% had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 51% had an unfavorable view of him. 

Numerous polls have been released over the past few days, conducted after the presidential debate, although this poll shows the largest lead for Biden in the state. 

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters released after the presidential debate shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov  released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. 

Two GOP leaning polls released last week also have Biden in the driver’s seat in the state, although the race is tighter in this polling. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released last week showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state. A Federalist/TIPP poll of likely voters released last week has Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49-to-44.

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania.

Monmouth surveyed 500 Pennsylvania registered voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.4%. FiveThirtyEight gives Monmouth an “A+” rating, although the poll favors Democrats by an average of 1.3%. 

The full crosstabs for the Monmouth University Poll can be found here.

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