Close this search box.

NYT/Siena College Poll: Biden 49, Trump 42

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a several point lead over President Donald Trump in the Keystone State, according to this latest poll. 

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania released on Saturday shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 49-to-42. These numbers are a minor improvement for the president in comparison to polling released five days prior that showed Biden with a 9 point lead, 49-to-40, although the former VP’s lead is still beyond the margin of error.

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Siena College/The New York Times Upshot polling favors Republicans by an average of 0.3% and has an overall A+ grade.

Trump’s job approval and favorability rating are both under water, while a narrow majority of voters have a favorable impression of Biden. 42% said they either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 55% said that they either strongly or somewhat disapprove of his job performance. 

44% have either a very favorable or somewhat favorable impression of Trump, while 54% said they have either a very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable view of him. 53% have either a very favorable or somewhat favorable impression of Biden, while 46% said they have an either very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable view of him. 

Both Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) also have net positive favorability ratings. 47% have either a very favorable or somewhat favorable impression of Pence, while 46% said that they have either a very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable view of him. 48% have either a very favorable of somewhat unfavorable impression of Harris, while 44% have either a very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable view of her. 

When likely voters were asked who they would trust on the following issues, Biden has an advantage over Trump on the coronavirus pandemic (52-to-38), Unifying America (56-to-36), maintaining law and order (49-to-45), choosing a Supreme Court Justice (51-to-44), and protecting people with pre-existing conditions (57-to-35). The lone issue of the six asked in the poll that voters sided with the president was on the economy, with Trump leading Biden (50-to-46).

Biden also has the edge over Trump in who likely voters think won the first presidential debate, although nearly half said that neither candidate won the debate. 35% think that Biden won the debate, while 18% said Trump won the debate, and 47% said that they don’t know who won the debate. 

In the previous NYT/Siena College poll conducted prior to the debate, 41% of likely voters said that they thought Trump would win the debate, while 39% said they thought Biden would best Trump in the debate, and 20% said that they didn’t know. 

This latest poll was conducted after the presidential debate, but prior to Trump’s positive COVID-19 announcement. 

Numerous polls released over the past week show Biden leading Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. 

A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state conducted Sept 20-23 showed Biden holding a 7 point lead over Trump, 51-to-44. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released last Tuesday also showed Biden with a 9 point lead, 54-to-45, among likely voters in PA. Two GOP leaning polls also have Biden with an advantage in the state. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released last week showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state. A Federalist/TIPP poll of likely voters released last week has Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49-to-44.  

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania.

This poll surveyed 706 likely voters, which collected data between Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, has a +/-4.1% margin of error. 

The full crosstabs can be found here.

4 Responses

  1. Trump is likely to carry the state but I question whether it will be as huge a Biden win as this poll shows. More interesting will be how long it takes to count all the ballots. The Presidential primary was a disaster in that regard and I can’t imagine it will get better with double the amount of voters for the general election. If Florida goes for Biden, and those results should be available on election night, then the election is essentially over and PA can take weeks to count all these absentee ballots without a headache. On the other hand if Trump carries Florida, it could be that PA will decide the election.

  2. Trump now wants to go “home” to WH, while he still can. WH staff should all resign en masse.

  3. With 200,000 dead and an economy in tatters, Trump’s terrible temperament and inability to keep himself safe, it’s surprising Biden isn’t leading by more.

  • Do you agree that ByteDance should be forced to divest TikTok?

    • Yes. It's a national security risk. (60%)
    • No. It's an app used by millions and poses no threat. (40%)
    • What's ByteDance? (0%)

    Total Voters: 30

    Loading ... Loading ...
Continue to Browser


To install tap and choose
Add to Home Screen