The Federalist/TIPP Poll: Biden 49, Trump 44
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a few points in Pennsylvania, according to polling from this conservative website.
The Federalist/TIPP online-only poll of likely voters in the state released on Sept. 27 shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-44%.
According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, IBD/TIPP polling favors Republicans by an average of 0.8% and has an overall A/B grade.
Although Biden leads by 5 points, analysis from The Federalist stated that the race is “tightening,” while citing the Real Clear Politics average dip in comparison to the former VP’s over the last two months.
The polling shows a stark contrast in support between the candidates among voters in different regions of the state. Biden bests Trump among urban voters (54-to-39) and suburban voters (53-to-40). Trump has the upper hand among rural voters (55-to-39).
Biden leads among women voters by 24 points, (59-to-35), while Trump holds a 17 point advantage among men voters (55-to-38).
Although Biden has a 5 point lead in the poll, a plurality of voters believe that Trump will win the election. 42% polled said they believed that Trump will win in November, while 38% polled said Biden would win, and 20% said that they aren’t sure who will win the presidential election.
A plurality of those polled also believe that their neighbors support Trump over Biden. 49% polled said that they think their neighbors are voting for Trump, while 32% said they think they are backing Biden, and 19% said they weren’t sure who their neighbors supported.
Although there is a small amount of undecided voters, the polling indicated that they preferred Trump over Biden. 37% of the undecided voters said that they are leaning towards supporting Trump, while 18% said they are leaning towards voting for Biden.
Numerous polls released since last week show Biden leading Trump in the state, although this poll is relatively close to the Real Clear Politics average.
A Trafalgar Group poll of likely voters released last weekend showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%, in the state. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released last Monday showed Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakers Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just under 3 points, 47.3%-to-44.6%, in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll of likely Pennsylvania voters released on Wednesday shows Biden with a 4 point advantage, 49-to-45. Polling from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state also shows Biden with a 4 point lead over Trump, 49-to-45. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Thursday morning has Biden leading Trump by 6 points among likely voters, 48-to-42, and 9 points, 49-to-40, among registered voters in the state. Biden held a 7 point lead over Trump, 51-to-44, among likely voters in the state according to a Fox News poll. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released a few days ago showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state. A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday showed Biden leading by 9 points, 49-to-40, among likely voters in the state. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Tuesday also showed Biden with a 9 point lead, 54-to-45, among likely voters in PA.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.7 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll surveyed 909 registered voters, including 774 likely voters, collected data between Sept. 24-26. The margin of error among likely voters is 3.6%.
The survey can be found here.