GOP PAC/Trafalgar Poll: Biden 48.1, Trump 45.9
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by just over 2 points in Pennsylvania, according to polling commissioned from this GOP super PAC.
Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, commissioned a September poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted by the Trafalgar Group that shows 48.1% say they are going to vote for Biden, while 45.9% say they are going to vote for Trump.
According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Trafalgar Group favors Republicans by an average of 0.9% and has an overall C- grade. The Hill has previously reported that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”
Biden’s lead has shrunk in comparison to a July poll that showed the former VP leading the president by just over 5 points, 49.7-to-44.3, in the state. In the June PA poll, Biden led Trump by 11 points, 53.5-to-41.8, while the president was ahead of the former VP by about 5 points in the May PA poll, 50.2-to-45.5. Restoration PAC’s polling from April and March showed the two deadlocked. However, previous polling commissioned by the PAC was conducted by Glenn Hodas, not the Trafalgar Group.
Polling also showed that a majority of likely voters in the state view China as a threat to the health, military, and economy of the United States and a majority of voters in the state support fracking.
52% said that they think China threatens the health, military, and economy of the United States. 14% said that China is no threat to the United States, 12.4% said that China threatens our jobs and economy, 4.5% said that China threatens our health directly and through the supply chain, and 2.1% said that China threatens our Military and space programs. 15% had no opinion on the matter.
51.9% said that they either strongly support or support hydraulic fracking for natural gas or oil in the state, while 32.9% said that they either strongly oppose or oppose it, and 15.3% say they have no opinion.
A plurality of likely voters also said that they want a strict constructionist conservative appointed to fill the vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court. 36.6% said that they want a strict constructionist conservative appointed, while 27.6% said they want a progressive liberal. 15.6% said that they want someone who has the same philosophy of the justice who vacated the seat, while 7.9% said they want a civil libertarian, and 12.4% said they have no opinion.
Numerous polls released since last week show Biden leading Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster.
A Trafalgar Group poll of likely voters released over this past weekend showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%, in the state. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Monday showed Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakers Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just under 3 points, 47.3%-to-44.6%, in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll of likely Pennsylvania voters released on Wednesday shows Biden with a 4 point advantage, 49-to-45. Polling from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state also shows Biden with a 4 point lead over Trump, 49-to-45. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Thursday morning has Biden leading Trump by 6 points among likely voters, 48-to-42, and 9 points, 49-to-40, among registered voters in the state. Biden’s largest lead from polls released since last week comes from a Fox News poll of likely voters that has Biden ahead by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters in the state.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.3 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll surveyed 1,006 likely voters, collected data between September 18-21, has a +/-2.99% margin of error.
The full data can be found here.