PoliticsPA Playbook: Biden Takes PA Lead

The left side of the internet is swooning for Philadelphia this morning, after the city’s latest batch of mail votes put former VP Joe Biden in the lead in Pa. and for the presidency.

As the count continues in the commonwealth, the former VP looks to pick up our 20 Electoral College votes. Meanwhile the GOP will flip at least one row office and leads in a second. Every incumbent member of Congress looks likely to serve another term. And 15 candidates for closely watched races in the state legislature *haven’t* declared victory, as we also still await final results for the three statewide contests. 

Ballots from southeast PA and the Lehigh Valley that were tabulated on Thursday have tightened the race for president and other offices. 

Want to see results from previous days? Check out PoliticsPA’s Wednesday and Thursday Election Playbooks. 

Here’s an update of where we stand as of Friday morning in PA. 

 

President. Former Vice President Joe Biden has taken a 5,587 vote lead (0.1%) over President Donald Trump with 95% estimated to be in. Biden gained the lead on Friday morning when more results were tabulated from Philadelphia. All remaining outstanding ballots are likely to favor th VP, so expect to see national outlets calling the presidential race for Biden today following PA’s results. 

 

Statewide. For Attorney General, Josh Shapiro leads GOP challenger Heather Heidelbaugh by 3.5 points. For Auditor General, Republican Tim DeFoor leads Democrat Nina Ahmad by 4 points. For Treasurer, Republican challenger Stacy Garrity leads Treasurer Joe Torsealla by 1.7 points. 

 

Congressional Races 

It looks like no incumbent member of Congress in PA will lose this cycle. 

PA1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) has defeated Democratic challenger Christina Finello. The AP called the race for Fitzpatrick on Wednesday afternoon. As of Friday morning, Fitzpatrick leads by just under 14 points with 94% of estimated votes reported. 

PA6: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester) has defeated GOP challenger John Emmons. The AP called the race for Houlahan on Wednesday afternoon. As of Friday morning, Houlahan leads by just under 12 points with 96% of estimated votes reported. 

PA7: Rep. Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) declared victory over GOP challenger Lisa Scheller on Thursday evening. As of Friday morning, Wild leads by 10,656 votes (or by 3 points) with 94% in and her lead can still expand as more mail ballots are counted. 

PA8: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) leads GOP challenger Jim Bognet by 3.4 points with 93% of estimated votes reported. 

PA10: Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) has defeated Democratic challenger Eugene DePasquale. The AP called the race for Perry on Thursday evening. As of Friday morning, Perry leads by just under 7 points (26,168 votes) with 95% of estimated votes reported. 

PA16: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) has defeated Democratic challenger Kristy Gnibus. The AP called the race for Kelly on Wednesday morning. As of Friday morning, Kelly leads by 20 points with 82% of estimated votes reported. 

PA17: Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) declared victory over GOP challenger Sean Parnell late on Wednesday night. As of Friday morning, Lamb leads by 1 point (4,287 votes) and his lead looks to expand as more mail ballots are counted. 

 

State Senate and House

So far Republicans have flipped two state House seats, (HD-143) and (HD-123), while Democrats have flipped one seat in the Philly suburbs (HD-152). There are a number of races that are currently close, including House Minority Leader Frank Dermody (D-Allegheny), who trails by 4 points. For the state Senate, Republicans have flipped one seat in western PA (SD-37), while a few other races could flip as well. 

While results are not final in a number of districts, here’s an update of where things stand in competitive House and Senate races in PA. If we missed a competitive race where most results are in, and at least some writing is on the wall, please send me a note at John@PoliticsPA.com).

 

State Senate 

SD-9: Democrat John Kane holds a slim lead (51%-to-49%) over Sen. Tom Killion (R-Delaware), according to the New York Times. This race is too close to call. 

SD-11: Sen. Judy Schwank (D-Berks) leads GOP challenger Annette Baker by 18 points (59%-to-41%), according to the New York Times. 

SD-13: Sen. Scott Martin (R-Lancaster) defeated Democratic challenger Janet Diaz for the seat in Lancaster County. As of Friday morning, Martin leads by 22 points. 

SD-15: Sen. John DiSanto (R-Dauphin) holds a slim lead over Democratic challenger George Scott, according to PennLive. As of Friday morning, DiSanto leads by 4 points, according to the New York Times.

SD-19: Democrat Carolyn Comitta has defeated Republican Kevin Runey for the seat in the Philadelphia suburbs. As of Friday morning, Comitta leads by 14 points, according to the New York Times. 

SD-31: Sen. Mike Regan (R-York) has defeated Democratic challenger Shanna Danielson. As of Friday morning, Regan leads by 30 points, according to the New York Times. 

SD-37: Republican Devlin Robinson defeated state Sen. Pam Iovino (D-Allegheny) for the seat in western PA. As of Friday morning, Robinson leads by 6 points. However, Iovino has not yet conceded this morning said the number of outstanding ballots is TBD and could put her ahead. 

SD-45: GOP challenger Nicole Ziccarelli has a narrow lead over state Sen. Jim Brewster (D-Allegheny). As of Friday morning, Ziccarelli leads by 2 points, according to the New York Times. 

SD-49: Sen. Dan Laughlin (R-Erie) defeated Democratic challenger Julie Slomski. As of Friday morning, Laughlin leads by 20 points. 

 

State House

HD-3: State Rep. Ryan Bizzarro (D-Erie) leads GOP challenger Greg Hayes by just under 23 points, according to DOS. Bizzaro declared victory. 

HD-16: State Rep. Rob Matzie (D-Beaver) leads GOP challenger Rico Elmore by 12 points, according to DOS

HD-18: Rep. K.C. Tomlinson (R-Bucks) holds a few point advantage over Democratic challenger Harold Hayes. As of Friday morning, Tomlinson leads by 5 points, according to DOS. 

HD-26: Rep. Tim Hennessey (R-Chester) leads Democratic challenger Paul Friel by 7 points, according to DOS.

HD-33: Republican Carrie DelRosso leads House Minority Leader Frank Dermody (D-Allegheny) by 4 points, according to DOS. 

HD-50: State Rep. Pam Snyder (D-Greene) has taken the lead over GOP challenger Larry Yost. As of Friday morning, Snyder leads by 3 points, according to DOS. 

HD-53: Rep. Steven Malagari (D-Montgomery) has defeated GOP challenger Miles Arnott, according to the New York Times. As of Friday morning, Malagari leads by 9 points, according to DOS.  

HD-55: GOP challenger Jason Silvis holds a lead over Rep. Joe Petrarca (D-Westmoreland). As of Friday morning, Silvis leads by 5 points, according to DOS. 

HD-105: Rep. Andrew Lewis (R-Dauphin) leads Democratic challenger Brittney Rodas by just under 4 points, according to DOS. 

HD-118: State Rep. Mike Carroll (D-Luzerne) leads GOP challenger Andrew Holter by 6 points, according to DOS. 

HD-119: State Rep. Gerald Mullery (D-Luzerne) leads GOP challenger John Chura by 5 points, according to DOS. 

HD-123: Republican Tim Twardzik defeated Democrat Peter Symons Jr. This seat, held by state Rep. Neal Goodman (D-Schuylkill), is a flip for Republicans. As of Friday morning, Twardzik leads Symons by 25 points, according to DOS. 

HD-151: Rep. Todd Stephens (R-Montgomery) leads Democratic challenger Jonathan Kassa by 6 points, according to DOS. 

HD-165: Rep. Jen O’Mara (D-Delaware) leads Republican challenger Robert Smythe Jr by just under 3 points, according to DOS. The HDCC declares that O’Mara has won the race.

HD-168: Rep. Chris Quinn (R-Delaware) leads Democratic challenger Deb Ciamacca by 2 points, according to DOS.

November 6th, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Playbook, Top Stories | 4 Comments

4 thoughts on “PoliticsPA Playbook: Biden Takes PA Lead”

  1. Captain Obvious says:

    So, aside from the presidential race, it is either status quo or Republicans flipping seats in PA (row offices, State Senate, State House)?

    I think Republican voters can live with that.

    1. gulag Pittsburgh says:

      In other words, gerrymandering is more important than Trump.

  2. Max Power says:

    I feel bad for Nina. She must feel so humiliated again. And to have spent all of her own money like that.

    1. gulag Pittsburgh says:

      Not smart, as Trump would say. Be like him and never spend your own money. Always live on other people’s money, or loans which can be eliminated in bankruptcy.

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