That’s according to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which has McGinty at 47% and incumbent GOP Senator Pat Toomey 44%.
Last month, Quinnipiac had Toomey ten points ahead of his Democratic opponent.
There are significant gender, educational and racial gaps in this race. For example, McGinty leads 52% to 38% among women while Toomey is ahead 51% to 41% with men.
The Democrat also has a large advantage with nonwhite respondents (71/12) whereas the incumbent is favored by whites (51/42). McGinty actually is ahead with white women (46/45), however, so Toomey’s support depends on white men (59/37).
McGinty is ahead among those with a college degree, 49% to 45%, while Sen. Toomey leads among those without one, 58% to 34%.
Finally, as you would expected, McGinty has the advantage with Democrats (85/8) and Toomey is favored by Republicans (85/7). The Senator gets the edge with independents (46/44).
“Is Katie McGinty benefitting from Hillary Clinton’s 10-point lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania? Is she engaging Sen. Pat Toomey in her own right, or is it a little bit of both?” asked Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Any way you cut it, this first-timer is giving the incumbent a run for his money.”
This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from July 30th to August 7th. They contacted 815 likely voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is +/- 3.4%.