Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves PA From “Lean Dem” to “Likely Dem”

Sabato Map AugustPennsylvania is trending towards Hillary Clinton.

That’s the conclusion of Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. They are moving PA from the “Lean Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” column.

“While there is some suggestion that Pennsylvania might be slowly trending Republican, and while it has a lot of the white, working-class voters that Donald Trump is targeting, recent polling has suggested that Hillary Clinton is obviously the favorite there right now,” Kondik writes. “She leads Trump by close to seven-to-nine points in Keystone State polling averages, which suggests to us that whatever Trump is gaining in blue-collar western and northeastern Pennsylvania over traditional Republican performance is more than being canceled out by his tremendous weakness in diverse Greater Philadelphia and amongst college-educated whites in the state more broadly.”

Clinton has lead the last six surveys (Suffolk, PPP, F&M, Susquehanna, Quinnipiac and NBC) that have been done in the commonwealth on the presidential race.

Recently, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver wrote that Pennsylvania is once again part of Clinton’s firewall.

2 Responses

  1. It’s always been “Likely Dem”. PA is a blue presidential state. It’s not a battleground state.

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