Emerson Poll: Biden 50, Trump 45
While a number of recent polls show former Vice President Joe Biden expanding his lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, the latest Emerson College poll of likely voters shows a closer race in the Keystone State.
Biden leads Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. This is an improvement for Trump in comparison to Emerson’s poll conducted right before the conventions in August that showed the former VP with a 9 point lead in the state, 52-to-43.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Emerson College polling favors Democrats by an average of 0.3% and has an overall A- grade.
Although Biden carries a 5 point advantage in the state, voters are split 50-to-50 on who they expect to win November’s presidential election.
Trump’s job approval rating remains underwater, although it is a minor improvement in comparison to August polling. 44% approve of Trump’s job performance as president, while 52% disapprove.
The economy is the most important issue for Pennsylvania likely voters in the upcoming election. 33% selected the economy as their top choice, while 19% said the candidates’ COVID-19 response is the most important issue determining their vote, followed by 16% that said health care. 10% selected social justice as their top issue, while 7% said Supreme Court, 5% said Climate Change, and 11% said something else.
Biden and Trump voters are divided on the most important issue for the upcoming election. 57% of Trump voters said the economy is the most important issue, followed by 10% that said the Supreme Court is the most important issue for their vote. 31% of Biden voters selected COVID-19 response as their top issue for the upcoming election, followed by 23% that said health care, and 17% that selected social justice.
Numerous polls have been released over the past week that show Biden leading in the state, although this margin varies by the pollster.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Reuters-Ipsos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll released on Tuesday shows Biden carrying a 4 point lead, 50-to-46, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s largest lead in recent polling comes from Quinnipiac University that shows the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state.
Two GOP leaning polls released last week also have Biden leading the race, although the polling is tighter. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released last week showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state. A Federalist/TIPP poll of likely voters released last week has Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49-to-44.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 7.1 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll, surveying 688 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between Oct. 4-5, has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.
The full polling can be found here.