Monmouth Poll: Shapiro Maintains Double Digit Lead, Ahmad and Torsella Hold Narrow Advantage
Attorney General Josh Shapiro maintains a double digit advantage in his reelection bid, while Treasurer Joe Torsella and Democratic Auditor General candidate Nina Ahmad hold narrow leads over their GOP opponents, according to a new Monmouth University poll.
Shapiro leads Heather Heidelbaugh, a former Allegheny County Councilwoman and Pittsburgh-area attorney, by 15 points, 53-to-38, in the race for Attorney General among registered voters in the state, while 7% remain undecided. Torsella leads Stacy Garrity, an Iraq War veteran and businesswoman, by 6 points, 47-to-41, among registered voters in the state in the race for Treasurer, while 10% are undecided. In the race for Auditor General, 46% of registered voters said that they would vote for Ahmad, a former Deputy Mayor of Philadelphia, while 40% said that they’d vote for Tim DeFoor, a Dauphin County Controller, and 12% that said they are undecided.
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) October 6, 2020
All three Democrats maintain their leads in the high likely voter turnout model and the low likely voter turnout model, although the margins do shift a bit in each race.
Shapiro maintains a 15 point lead over Heidelbaugh, 54-to-39, among likely voters in the high turnout model. The margin narrows slightly among likely voters in the low turnout model with Shapiro leading Heidelbaugh by 13 points, 53-to-40. Shapiro’s lead in all three models are beyond the poll’s margin of error.
Torsella holds a 5 point lead over Garrity, 47-to-42, among likely voters in the high turnout model. Torsella’s lead over Garrity shrinks to 4 points, 47-to-43, among likely voters in the low turnout model.
Ahmad leads DeFoor by 4 points, 46-to-42, among likely voters in the high turnout model. Ahmad only has a 1 point edge over DeFoor, 45-to-44, among likely voters in the low turnout model.
While the Democrats hold leads in all three statewide contests, only Shapiro’s lead is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.
This is the second time that Monmouth University has polled the races for Attorney General, Auditor General, and Treasurer. In comparison to their poll among registered voters of all three contests conducted in late-August, Shapiro has expanded his lead by 5 points over Heidelbaugh, while Ahmad added 4 points on to her lead over DeFoor, and Torsella gained an additional point over Garrity.
This latest polling from Monmouth also shows former Vice President Joe Biden expanding his lead over President Donald Trump in the Keystone State, in comparison to the previous poll. Biden leads Trump by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state in today’s poll, while Biden only held a 4 point lead over Trump, 49-to-45, in the poll conducted in late-August.
Another noteworthy shift in this latest polling is that each Democrat has a double digit advantage with Independent voters polled.
In the race for Attorney General, Shapiro leads Heidelbaugh by 34 points, 57-to-24, among Independent voters. 89% of Democrats said that they will vote for Shapiro, while 14% of Republicans said that they will vote for the incumbent Democrat for Attorney General. 84% of Republicans said they will vote for Heidelbaugh, while 6% of Democrats said they will back the GOP candidate for Attorney General.
Ahmad leads DeFoor by 19 points, 47-to-28, among Independent voters in the race for Auditor General. 86% of Democrats said they will vote for Ahmad, while 4% of Republicans said they’d back the Democratic candidate for Auditor General. 89% of Republicans said they’d vote for DeFoor, while just 2% of Democrats said they’d support the GOP candidate for Auditor General.
In the race for Treasurer, Torsella leads Garrity by 16 points, 45-to-29, among Independent voters polled. 88% of Democrats said they will vote for Torsella, while 6% of Republicans said that they’d back the incumbent Democrat. 88% of Republicans said that they will vote for Garrity, while 4% of Democrats said they’d vote for the GOP challenger.
In Monmouth’s poll conducted in late-August, Garrity led Torsella by 7 points among Independent voters, while DeFoor led Ahmad by 10 points among Independent voters. Shapiro was the lone Democrat to have the advantage with Independents in that previous poll.
Although there are the only two public polls in the races for Auditor General and Treasurer, a GOP friendly pollster showed a much tighter race for Attorney General.
A Trafalgar Group poll of likely voters commissioned by the American Industry Project in mid-September showed Shapiro leading Heidelbaugh by just over 3 points, 46.7%-to-43.2%, while 5.3% are undecided.
In 2016, Shapiro bested Republican John Rafferty by about 2.5 points for the open AG seat. Torsella defeated Republican Otto Voit by 6 points in the 2016 election for the open Treasurer seat. Auditor General Eugene DePasquale (D) secured two terms as AG and fended off a challenge from GOP candidate John Brown by 5 points in 2016.
Monmouth surveyed 500 Pennsylvania registered voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.4%. FiveThirtyEight gives Monmouth an “A+” rating, although the poll favors Democrats by an average of 1.3%.
The full crosstabs for the Monmouth University Poll can be found here.