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Rasmussen Poll: Biden 50, Trump 45

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a few points in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, while 2% said that they prefer some other candidate, and 3% remain undecided. 

Trump narrows the gap when voters who haven’t made up their mind, but are leaning toward one candidate over the other are taken into consideration. 50% of these voters said that they’d vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 47% said they’d vote for Trump. 

However, among 89% of all voters in the state who have already made up their minds of who they’re going to vote for, Biden extends his lead. 53% of these voters support Biden, while 46% back Trump. 

Rasmussen has been described as Trump’s “favorite pollster.” According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Rasmussen favors Republicans by an average of 1.5% and has an overall C+ grade. 

31% of voters in the state have already voted this cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads 78%-to-19%.

Polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. This latest poll is comparable to the Real Clear Politics average

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll released last Tuesday shows Biden carrying a 4 point lead, 50-to-46, among likely voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll released last Sunday, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state shows Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52-to-44. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, among likely voters in the state.

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from Quinnipiac University that shows the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling was from the Trafalgar Group that shows Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, among likely voters in the state.

Two GOP friendly polls released over the past week showed Biden leading in the state as well, but by a smaller margin. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll of likely voters commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, in the state shows Biden leading Trump by just over 3 points, 45.8%-to-42.6%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 3.7 points in Pennsylvania.

This overall poll, surveying 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between Oct. 18-19, has a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

The article from Rasmussen on the latest poll can be found here.

4 Responses

  1. Rasmussen tends to weigh variables toward R’s in polls which translates to Biden winning PA by 5%. Biden needs to mute boasting of surrogates that he has PA in the bag which he is doing. However, the reality is that this sudden 2% lead he has over Trump is a lot more. He will at least win by 5% due mainly to covid and Biden’s warm personality. When people had to wait to get into a grocery store during Covid and could not see PSU football this September it opened up the impact of this era even more than obvious effects and sealed Trump’s PA defeat.

  2. I read serial philanderer and Trump immediately came to mind. Do not forget Trump was Person #1 who conspired with his lawyer to pay off porn star in violation of election law and then wrote it off as a business expense. TAX CHEAT. His lawyer went to prison. What is awaiting Trump? The same I hope. Lock him up.

  3. Is the PA House GOP Leadership going to anything about serial philanderer and child abuser GOP State Rep Aaron Bernstine?

    In one video obtained by the USA TODAY Network, Aaron Bernstine, R-10, New Beaver, Lawrence County, is behind the camera, but his hand is shown holding a cigar and offering it to his son.

    When the young boy takes a puff, Bernstine tells him to “hit it harder” and “breathe in,” followed by a woman’s voice saying, “No.”

    A second video has Bernstine again off camera asking his son, “What are we going to chase in Nashville?” The boy replies in a whisper, “Cadillac p—ssy,” using a vulgar term for vagina.

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