Trafalgar Poll: Biden 47.4, Trump 45.1
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a narrow edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll.
The Trafalgar Group’s survey of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, while 3.1% said they plan to back Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen, 2.6% said someone else, and 1.8% remain undecided.
Biden’s lead is within the poll’s 2.97% margin of error.
The Trafalgar Group was one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton. According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Trafalgar Group polling favors Republicans by an average of 0.9% and has an overall C- grade.
The Hill has previously reported that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the “so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”
This latest poll shows essentially no change in comparison to the Trafalgar Group poll conducted in mid-September that showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%.
The race has tightened in comparison to polling from the group in the summer. In July, Trafalgar Group showed Biden with a 5.3% lead over Trump, 48%-to-42.7%.
Numerous polls have been released in October that show Biden leading in the state, although this poll shows the closest race of many recent polls.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll released last Tuesday shows Biden carrying a 4 point lead, 50-to-46, among likely voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll released on Sunday, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released yesterday show Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s largest lead in recent polling comes from Quinnipiac University that shows the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state.
Two GOP leaning polls released in late September also have Biden leading the race, although their polling is tighter. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released last week showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state. A Federalist/TIPP poll of likely voters released last week has Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49-to-44.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 7 points in Pennsylvania.
This overall poll, surveying 1,034 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between Oct. 10-12, has a margin of error of +/-2.97%.
The full data can be found here.