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Trafalgar Poll: Biden 47.4, Trump 45.1

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a narrow edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

The Trafalgar Group’s survey of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, while 3.1% said they plan to back Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen, 2.6% said someone else, and 1.8% remain undecided. 

Biden’s lead is within the poll’s 2.97% margin of error. 

The Trafalgar Group was one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton. According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Trafalgar Group polling favors Republicans by an average of 0.9% and has an overall C- grade. 

The Hill has previously reported that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the “so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”

This latest poll shows essentially no change in comparison to the Trafalgar Group poll conducted in mid-September that showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%. 

The race has tightened in comparison to polling from the group in the summer. In July, Trafalgar Group showed Biden with a 5.3% lead over Trump, 48%-to-42.7%.  

Numerous polls have been released in October that show Biden leading in the state, although this poll shows the closest race of many recent polls. 

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll released last Tuesday shows Biden carrying a 4 point lead, 50-to-46, among likely voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll released on Sunday, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released yesterday show Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s largest lead in recent polling comes from Quinnipiac University that shows the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. 

Two GOP leaning polls released in late September also have Biden leading the race, although their polling is tighter. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released last week showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state. A Federalist/TIPP poll of likely voters released last week has Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49-to-44.

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 7 points in Pennsylvania.

This overall poll, surveying 1,034 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between Oct. 10-12, has a margin of error of +/-2.97%. 

The full data can be found here.

48 Responses

  1. Oh please, where was your concern on Ivanka getting 18 trademarks from China and rushed thru right after election.

    Amazing the ignorance of Trump supporters. The emails have in NO WAY been verified as real.
    1st it was Obama spying then that didn’t work, so it was unmasking, ooops that just failed, Then it was Hillary again, nope, another bust, NOW its Hunter Biden BS.

  2. I hate Trump but I still think he’ll win. There’s too many ignorant ppl in this country still. When this period is studied 50 years from now ppl will laugh at how stupid Americans were. My guess is the map will stay the same as 16 but Biden will flip one more state than Clinton. Probably MI. Hopefully I’m wrong so everyone vote!!!

      1. I love Trumps tax cuts! We need more guns. I am a gum owner and I want to make sure I protect myself from the terrorists!” They are out there you know!

    1. Facebook and Twitter censoring find of Hunter Biden’s laptop confirming Hunter sold access of the office of Vice President, his dad, aka “Pop,” to Chinese Communist Party. Why are they censoring free speech? What are they afraid of? You finding out the truth, that’s what. Do your research and seek all sides of issue instead of being mainstream media’s mind numbed robot. Biden Crime Family expected to give half of their millions of dollars of earnings to “Pop,” aka Joe Biden. FBI privy to laptop contents all through the impeachment. Biden sold access of his office for benefit of himself and his family. Biden family and big tech criminally corrupt. Big tech to give senate testimony next week consequently. Biden complicit in blackmail able events.

        1. Right! Censoring because it doesn’t help the candidate they want to win. Section 230 should be abolished and Big Tech should have to follow the same rules as all other companies. Censorship is one giant step toward Big Brother and 1984! Be afraid, be very afraid.

    2. Moron, you will love communism. We will be exactly like the Chinese because Hunter Biden will sell us to them.

  3. Westmoreland county, stay home! Y’all too sick to vote. Too much Covid up the ying yang! Philly will outnumber you. The college kids, minorities and wealthy suburban moms are coming out to vote for Biden. All the QVC hosts are ALL Democrats.

    1. GO JOE GO !!! KEEP RUNNING FOR SENATE ???? ONLY in AMERICA could such a bumbling buffoon like Biden be Commander In Chief ???? SAD Please don’t forget that twice during the Democrat Convention that the Dems forgot “under God” during their recitation of National Anthem !! This wasn’t by mistake. Their desired “socialist utopia” has no room for God !! Maybe that’s why socialism has never worked anywhere

      1. I love corporate welfare! My daddy left me a great business and I didn’t have to do anything to earn it. I want to be just like my hero Donald Trump!

        1. I would rather a politician take money from their parents than take money from China our Ukraine/Russia… our enemies! Biden and his son, the crackhead Hunter, were clearly taking bribes, and then Biden withheld $1 BILLION in US financial support from Ukraine unless and until Ukraine fired the prosecutor who was investigating Hunter and Bidens payola from Burisma. Biden even bragged about this in a public forum. Talk about “QUID PRO QOU”!

          1. You better believe it’s great to get money from your rich daddy. I envy Ivanka. Even though all Americans have to pay more for goods because of higher tarrifs because of Trumps disdain for China, wasn’t it great when Ivanka got 18 trademark exemptions for her products from them. Now that’s a dad who loves his daughter!

  4. BIDEN can’t remember what office he is running for..and you want 9am Joe to control our country..Democrats are the new Communist party in the usa

    1. Just because the democratic party’s platform looks like a maoist checklist, communists are rioting, burning, and registering people for their communist factions and to vote democrat amidst the protests doesn’t mean a thing. Let me be clear- Antifa does not exist.

      Now, if everyone will give up guns, free speech, opinions outside of what dems deem correct, and pride in their country, China will tell you what to do and let you keep your jobs. Otherwise, you will lose your job and be deemed a racist, sexist, white nationalist.

      All of this is just a movement of the people…

      1. Go to BBC, real video shows Biden saying when he ran for Senate then VP and now President. Biden is more coherent than insane in da Brain Donald! China owns Don. He owes them $400 million!

        1. Read his financial disclosures! Trump owes money to US and European BANKS. They are mortgages on billions of $ in property, but the % of the value is very low. You likely owe a larger percentage on your doublewide and your tattoos. 😉

      2. Hey Huh, too bad your boy Fat Donnie is going to lose this election and the senate is going flip. Go drink some more Trump Kool-Ade and make sure it’s the Jim Jones flavored kind.

        1. Does it dawn on you that Trump sucks and I agree? Trump sucking has nothing to do with my point. Your comment reflects the complete inability for you to break from the lemming line. Enjoy marching with your comrades after they win in November.

  5. You can dislike Trump for his personality —you can dislike him for his tweets—but He loves this country —that is not in question–If the far left gets in this government —We are sadly screwed—Promises of free school free health care free child care are—all lies–anyone with common sense knows this—It needs to be paid for and by whom—the top one percent—that’s always the answer—If you were the top one percent what would you do –move-put money in other countries-stop spending and investing—all these options hurt this nation–Please don’t believe that a socialist state will work–never has and never will—God Bless America

    1. I love stuff for free. Big tax breaks for me.
      My daddy gave me a nice business. I just hire a couple of task masters to keep my workers in line. It’s the American dream and the Republican way.

      1. Ahhh. A vague stereotype by someone who has never worked to build anything. Who are these people you are referring to and why do you assume they make up the majority of Republicans?

        What exactly are you condemning? Inheritance? Tax breaks for small business owners? Your lack of clarity leads me to think you don’t know what you are talking about and are only here to fling unfounded stereotypes.

        Don’t quit your day job community organizing.

        1. Listen up! You sound like someone who works for someone. I get guys to work for me and if they slack off, I get rid of them. I don’t have to work because my dad left me a lucrative business. The only thing I know is I want to reduce my taxes to almost nothing like President Trump. President Trump is a great businessman who can beat the system.

          1. Wake up, I didn’t leave the democrat party , they left me , Ben a union man my whole life . Work two jobs , own two houses , pay $6000.00 a year for medical and dental insurance. Why should illegal s get it free? You should be embarrassed by the stooge you nominated , 4 more years loser

        2. “Illegals” don’t get medical insurance for free, genius. Their propaganda has worked perfectly on you. Make you scared and angry at all the “others” out there so you’ll ignore the fact that middle class taxes are higher for most Americans than they ever have been, that wages haven’t gone up, that unemployment numbers are skewed because they don’t account for all the people with 2 or 3 part time jobs who are about to be evicted because Trump can’t manage his own party well enough to get a relief package out.

          Then there’s quarter of million Americans dead and half a country filled with morons who pack into crowds, maskless, to worship at the feet of a man who would rather cuddle up with Obama than touch any of them.

          Red state whites are the biggest recipients of welfare programs. I’m paying $60,000 a year in taxes to support Jimbo and his 3 sawed off shotguns who has a “disability” that looks a whole lot like a meth habit. We wouldn’t need an “illegal” to do the job he could be doing if he wasn’t milking the system.

          Trump hasn’t made anything better. he’s made it more acceptable to be a racist, idiotic piece of shit, and he’s made our country the laughing stock of the entire world and pissed off all our allies, but that’s about it. The economy is better if you own stocks, but for everyone else, we’re about to spiral into the worst recession we’ve had in our lifetimes, if not a depression, thanks to his ‘trick down” garbage that has never helped anyone except the ultra wealthy.

          When this country is not longer majority white in a few years (by 2040), we’ll be a whole lot better off.

    2. Don owes foreign governments $600 million. He’s the biggest Con in the World. He’s trying to boost his reputation as President to get more free money and loans. The guy is in over his head. He does not care about Americans. He want them to get Covid and die. No wonder Westmoreland County has so much Covid. People will be too sick by Nov 3rd to vote for Trump. This is God’s will. Natural selection.

    3. He loves his country? Wtf? Pays 750 bucks in taxes. His shit is all made in China and if I sat on my ass tweeting all day at my job I’d be fired. Loves his country? Please…

  6. Agreed, Trump is egotistical, crude, self centered, narcissistic, womanizer and much more. I will vote for him. Not because he’s the best solution but because I can’t stand you ( average progressive )

  7. I believe the SHY TRUMP citizens, the most intellectual citizens who save U.S.A. from the trap of CHINA and the left.

  8. Trump has failed at everything he does, including presidency. Trump thinks he can declare bankruptcy and walk away from 215,000 COVID dead.

      1. 215,000 dead and these morally bankrupt uneducated cretins are worried only about $$.

        Dump the RUMP

        GO with JOE!

    1. He’s not failed the blue collar worker. Democrats have. Just look at your local distribution shelves. Empty! Why because it’s been made offshore. Trump has shown us pre-trump political failure

      1. Whites in PA, many kids on Medicaid and food stamps! Many trailer trash whites. Did Trump get them their $75,000 new jobs and nice homes in burbs? Nope n he never will.

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